CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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  1. 2019 TE Ranks Advanced Metrics: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/te/2019 Catch Rate: 5th best in the NFL among all TEs DYAR: 9th best among all TEs DVOA: 6th best among all TEs Yards/Reception: 7th best among all TEs In case you haven't heard, Delanie Walker is no longer in his way, he's in a contract year, and he's been working out with Tannehill every week this summer ... oh, his current offensive coordinator is his former TE coach who wants to open up the offense with more "explosive plays" in the passing game ... oh, Jonnu's broad jump (short area quickness/burst) falls in the 95th percentile of all TEs ... oh, he also had 2 plays where he exceeded 20 MPH per Next Gen Stats - more or less unheard of from a TE ... oh, his average separation per route was better than Kittle, Kelce, and Waller ... oh, he also had the 4th best YAC/Reception among ALL WRs & TEs ... I forgot to mention he also had the longest rush (yes, rush) of any TE in over 40 years... OH, THERE'S THIS TOO: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/why-te-jonnu-smiths-osm-dominance-in-2019-bodes-well-for-the-titans/ (it's just a metric that shows Jonnu was literally the best player in the NFL last year with the ball in his hands) ... Current ADP: 14th round (12 team leagues), 17th TE off the board:
  2. 1. I never said "on all accords" ... quite the opposite, actually: "depending on league size/settings/who is available this is brilliant ... kittle and kelce are essentially WR1s ... not only are you getting elite production, you are putting the rest of your league at a huge disadvantage at TE. If you can start 2 TEs, I would definitely consider this assuming backs like Mixon/Jacobs are off the board. After those backs and Tyreek Hill, I would absolutely take both Kittle/Kelce and get "WR1" production from the TE/Flex spot 2. I also never said a team will be left holding an empty bag ... I said that bag will eventually be left with absolute trash production and that is only exacerbated by the fact I now own 2 of the few difference making TEs (the "supply" meaning "of good TEs that make a difference in fantasy lineups"). I'm well aware there are more than 12 tight ends in the NFL, thank you. 3. The depth at WR applies to ... the WR position on rosters, not just the flex spot. I never said it had to be my flex spot. I said 1,000 yard WRs are a lot easier to find than TEs ... because they are. Again, basic supply and demand (29 players topped 1,000 yards last year; 3 were TEs / 25 were WRs - and 1 RB). Now let's have more fun with numbers ... Kelce and Kittle averaged 13 fantasy points/game last year in .5 PPR. The "Low End TE1" averaged 8/game. So, we're at a +5 advantage at TE ... a flex/WR3 averaged 8.5 points/game ... oh snap, we're now at a 9-10 point advantage from TE/Flex ... and wow, I still may have RBs like Ekeler, Drake, Conner, Leveon Bell, Melvin Gordon, CEH, David Montgomery, etc. available at my 3rd pick ... and wow, I still may have WRs like Cooper, Robinson, Ridley, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, DK Metcalf available ... I'm glad you got some likes for your "argument" ... but not only did you completely disregard what I initially said (which was, in fact, grab the RB1/WR1 if available), you've completely wasted your time arguing points I didn't even make. Here's a thought: Read, re-read, ask for clarification, research, then counter with an actual argument. Points are points, your WRs/RB stable may not be the best in the league, but having point producers like Kittle + Kelce in your lineup is never a bad thing ... ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE PRODUCING THOSE POINTS AT A POSITION WITH LIMITED QUALITY OPTIONS TO BEGIN WITH
  3. It'll be interesting, Minnesota had the 3rd fewest pass attempts in the entire league last year (only TEN/BAL had less) and Diggs still put up numbers ... although his yards per reception appears to be a huge outlier (12.7 career average, 17.9 last year) and as you said, BUF has plenty of other mouths to feed. BUF averaged 32 passes a game last year; even if we give Diggs a 25% target share (this is a higher % than Julio/Godwin last year), that's 8 targets/game (128/season). Based on his career catch %, that gives Diggs 87 receptions for ~1100 yards and 7 TDs. This is his absolute ceiling in my opinion. If we lower his target share to 20%; 6 targets/game (96 targets on the season ... very much in line with what he received in 2017/2019) ... with a career catch % of 68%, now we're looking at 65 receptions for 829 yards and 5 TDs based on his career averages. Pencil Diggs in for 60 receptions, 800 yards ... I'm just not sure how much more upside there will be given the fact BUF actually has perfect complimentary weapons (Brown is an excellent "deep threat", Beasley is about as good as it gets in the slot and the advanced metrics support that). - and then there's Josh Allen's "cannon arm" ... the arm strength is undeniable. He's also a great example of why arm strength, after a certain point, is incredibly overrated. The Bills completed under 60% of their passes last year, 2nd worst in the NFL, and barely topped 200 yards passing per game. Allen has graded as one of the worst "deep ball" passers in the NFL since entering the league. This, coupled with Diggs inflated yards/reception last year, has me leaning towards the low end projection around 60/800/5 unless Allen improves significantly as a (reality) QB and the Bills throw more. Diggs' ADP right now is higher than Odell Beckham, DK Metcalf, JuJu, and McLaurin ... all WRs I would rather have than him. It would not shock me if, despite his talent, Diggs finishes as a "low end WR2" this season. I love him as a flex/WR3, but I don't draft those in the 4th round.
  4. I didn’t say it means Ertz is now going way earlier than he should. I said/meant owning these 2 means the rest of the league’s options at TE have been significantly impacted ... in addition to these 2 being elite point producers. In the end, points are points. If I can land this production at a spot like TE, while the rest of the league fights for scraps - I’m at a big advantage over the rest. So yes, it is as simple as supply and demand. The supply effect is obvious, while the demand for the remaining top 5 guys only goes up. Owning both means : You don’t have either and most of the league will be getting mediocre/terrible production. I would only consider this if there wasn’t a RB/WR I loved available in round 2 ... at some point you’ve gotta take the studs and think outside the box a little bit (if you can start both)
  5. I didn’t say/mean take Ertz earlier ... it’s the simple fact that those 2 not being available - and on my team - limits not only the quantity of TE but also the quality of TE available to the rest of the league. They are in a tier by themselves as elite WR1s with TE eligibility. Not only does this give me 2 elite fantasy producers in my lineup, it means the rest of the league has not only no chance at either - - but also the rest of the pool is diminished significantly in terms of difference making TEs. While most of the league has guys getting 3-5 points a week (standard), I’ve got WR1 Production in that spot and a “stud” in my flex spot too. Your actual WRs won’t be the best in the league, but it’s also a lot easier to find 1,000 yard WRs. I know it’s scary outside the box thinking, but it’s not that complicated. When I have both, not only do you not have 1 of the stud TEs, but the rest of the quality TEs available for the rest of the league has now been severely diminished. It effects every other team, not just the guy who was going to take Kittle after you took Kelce. A “ripple effect” if you will.
  6. No, Not only does the next guy lose them, it’s now pushing every other TE up the board - which impacts every other team as well. The guy taking Kittle now takes Ertz, the guy who was in line for Ertz is now taking ___ .... it’s not that difficult. Basic supply and demand.
  7. going to depend on who's available, but I would absolutely consider doing this. kudos for actually being able to think "outside the box". Points are points, Kelce/Kittle are elite producers. and you'll be putting the rest of your league at a huge TE disadvantage
  8. depending on league size/settings/who is available this is brilliant ... kittle and kelce are essentially WR1s ... not only are you getting elite production, you are putting the rest of your league at a huge disadvantage at TE. If you can start 2 TEs, I would definitely consider this assuming backs like Mixon/Jacobs are off the board. After those backs and Tyreek Hill, I would absolutely take both Kittle/Kelce and get "WR1" production from the TE/Flex spot if you can't start both, then absolutely not. i hate drafting "trade bait".
  9. walker and Jonnu combined for 75 targets last year. Jonnu’s career catch percentage is 70% of targets. If nothing whatsoever changes about the offense, that puts him in the 50-55 receptions / low end TE1 territory already. Try analyzing data with context, rather than a 2 minute google quest to prove someone wrong. He needs 85 targets to reach the 60 catch floor. 85 targets out of 448 passing attempts (again, assuming nothing changes ... despite everything pointing to a more balanced attack) is well within reach. Thats’s a 19% target share. Considering they targeted TEs on 24% of their attempts last year, clearly a number well within reach. Again, this is the floor based on nothing whatsoever changing in terms of play calling (which the actual guy calling the plays says needs to change, but that’s another post.)
  10. 1. those yards count, on top of the fact they show he’s athletic enough to rip off 50+ yard pitches from the backfield 2. I cherry picked nothing, I simply pointed out those target numbers were skewed by 2 “0s” in games they blew their opponent out of the water and didn’t need to throw the ball. You also didn’t account for the fact targets that went to Walker are now going somewhere ... and it’s likely Jonnu. 3. The 2019 scheme is changing, the guy calling the plays knows it needs to. Good luck this year.
  11. don't forget to include the 3 rushing attempts (yes, rushing) for 68 yards ... with those target numbers skewed by the fact he received 0 targets in 2 blowout wins (ironically 2 of the games he received a carry). it's been real. Jonnu's awesome, I dont think he'll crack top 5 due to this still being a defense/run first team ... but there aren't 10 TEs I would rather have this year and he's being drafted where kickers go.
  12. Last year. “We have to evolve (as an offense)...We don't want to get stale. We need to improve.” "“I’ve got a long way to go (as an offensive coordinator)... Every season you start over. We’ve got to make more improvement and certainly I’m aware of that." “We’ll see how the season evolves for (Henry), see what happens with the other running back spot, whoever emerges or how our guys divvy up the carries ... We’ve got a lot of explosive guys on our offense, and I’ve got to do a good job of finding ways to make sure different guys get touches, and that will naturally spread out... But if we’ve got a lot of guys doing it and we can win games and more guys are touching the ball, it’ll be better off for us as a team and as an offense. I think it’ll naturally work itself out as we build up. We want to be improving and peaking as the season goes along.” Above are all quotes from the offensive coordinator (Jonnu Smith's former TE coach). Here's a quote from Bill Belichick regarding Jonnu Smith: “He’s just a really good tight end... Can do a lot of things. Blocks well. Runs well. Is a good receiver. Played him at tailback, he looked pretty good back there. He’s a very athletic player. Hard to tackle. Catches the ball well ... He's great after the catch, probably the best in the league. I mean, I can’t imagine anyone better than him after the catch.” Regarding the ongoing weekly workouts with his QB: "... I’m only learning him more and he’s only learning me more, so I’m sure it will be a great advantage ... Ryan is making me better, I’m making him better, and we’re just building that chemistry ... I’m just trying to perfect that. ... We’ve been able to maximize the most of our opportunity. I love doing it and I love working with him." Move along, nothing to see here.
  13. Again, if absolutely nothing changes (it has, but let’s pretend it hasn’t), the games without Walker + his career catch % put him right around 50-55 receptions, the threshold for a “low end TE1” last year. In short, his floor is going to be a TE1 for dirt cheap ... while the upside is undeniable. An absolute no brainer selection at his current price. Plain and simple. Titans targeted TEs 108 times last year, 24% of their pass attempts. Walker and Jonnu combined for 70% of TE targets. I think it’s fair to assume Smith will soak up those targets left after Walker. Jonnu managed 45 targets despite a very limited roll for half a season in a run first offense with a new QB (the same QB he’s been working out with 1:1 all offseason. His floor, based on this data and nothing whatsoever changing in the offense: 54 receptions, 630 yards. 6 TDs. This would rank him 11th in receptions, 10th in yards, and tied for 4th among TEs last year regarding TDs. Reminder: this data is closer to his floor than his ceiling, based on TE target share, career yards/reception, etc. Summary: there is absolutely no reason to not take this guy at his price.
  14. 1. Size, athleticism, big play ability ... no, they aren’t close. Barkley blows CMC out of the water in essentially every one of these categories, and the objective data (try it sometime) only proves the point. Barkley’s ripping off more big plays on significantly less career touches so far, fumbling less, and averaging more total yards per game with nearly identical yards per reception. In short, there is nothing CMC does that Barkley can’t ... while there seems to be quite a few plays Barkley has already made that CMC couldn’t if he wanted to. The fact that Barkley is doing this with a frame that’s 30 pounds bigger makes this gap even more ridiculous. 2. We could play this BS game all day. It’s the same season Barkley played as a rookie with no help behind a train wreck of an offensive line and the shell of Eli Manning under center. 3. Last time I checked they still get tackled on receptions. There’s also 25 years of data indicating CMC is a huge regression candidate in per touch production following the 400 touch threshold. You can all relax, I do love CMC and would jump at the opportunity to select him. I would just do it after the bigger, more talented RB not coming off a 400 touch season. My previous post broke down exactly why I would do this. Total yards per game (rate of performance), 20+/40+ yard plays, size, athletic profile ... it’s weird when all the data proves Barkley is better.
  15. Google “Arthur Smith 2020” . I honestly couldn’t care less if you’re sold on Jonnu ... he’s awesome, he’s going to be used - a lot.