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Sidearmer last won the day on February 24 2019

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About Sidearmer

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  1. Given that the announcement was made on January 2, I ran the NFBC ADP from January 3 - today, and Robert is currently at an ADP of 88. Small sample size so should be interesting to see where he ends up, but this is the best guess as of now. If he ends around 88, it seems like very good value.
  2. Its definitely something that will be tangible. Especially for guys like Bregman and Altuve I think they will certainly drop a few spots. It'll be more interesting to see how other players like Yordan, Yuli, and Correa are effected.
  3. In what way is he safer? If by safer you mean we know for a fact he will have a terrible average than yes you are right. Sanchez may have a bad average but he has a chance to at least be solid. And how do we know he will fare well in Chicago? Park gets better but he will be now facing new league of pitchers. He also got the benefit of some starts at 1B last year and with Encarnacion and Abreu clogging up 1B and DH he probably will lose this. White Sox also have James McCann who had a great season, they will get him ABs. He played 153 games last year, 20 at first. I'd be shocked if he sniffed that many games this year. If we are talking OBP then you have an argument (even so, he's coming off a career OBP year, so again, that's not a given), but in standard leagues Grandal has quite a lot of risk and much less upside than Sanchez.
  4. I disagree with this wholeheartedly. Its very overused and doesn't make sense. Cody Bellinger probably won many leagues. Ronald Acuna probably won many leagues. Gerrit Cole probably won some leagues. There is still a lot of untapped upside to be had in rounds 3-5. Maybe in Round 1 you are trying to be more safe but being aggressive in round 3-5 isn't killing any teams.
  5. I've said this before but its very early to make that conclusion. He hit 38 HR in 2018 as a Yankee with a .343 OBP. Not his best season but that's his only season of full health. And he played 158 games in 2018, one down injury year doesn't mean he's broken. This was also before juiced ball. If he plays 150 games and hits 55 HR with a .270 average he will be a top 10 player. Maybe top 5 was a bit aggressive, but the upside here continues to be understated by many.
  6. Normally I'd agree with this but Cruz is locked in at DH. Cruz has played 0, 4, and 5 games outside of the DH each of the last 3 years. So Cruz will always be in the DH given health. As for Donaldson, he's still a strong defender, maybe not the gold glove he used to be, but there's no reason to think he's a liability at all at 3B. Maybe by the end of that contract he will be and can make a shift, especially when Cruz is gone.
  7. This is true but strikeouts along with other stats can usually be a better indicator of future performance in W, ERA, and WHIP then just looking at those stats in previous years.
  8. Wait and see, but it will probably be pretty clear after 3-4 weeks of regular season if the ball is juiced or not. I don't know if anything could be taken with more than a grain of salt related to Spring Training results.
  9. I'd argue his upside is way way higher than Sano and Gallo. Stanton has a much better lineup and much better park than them as well. I do like Sano and Gallo as potential sleepers too, but Stanton has top 5 hitter upside that Sano and Gallo just don't have.
  10. He's a terrible defender at all of those positions, so the Rangers don't have much incentive to keep playing him if his bat starts to struggle. His ADP of 126 at NFBC is too high, IMO. He has a lot of downside to him, with his bat and the overall risk that he can be flat out benched in spurts if he struggles. There's no reason for the Rangers to have a long leash with him.
  11. I'm of the opinion this job is Carlos Martinez's to lose. Cardinals have Flaherty, Mikolas, Wainwright, and Hudson locked into the rotation, and likely will slot in Kim as their 5th. I'm assuming they did not sign him just to stick him in bullpen. They also have guys like Ponce De Leon and Gomber who can step in for injuries. Martinzez only pitched 48 innings last year, all in relief, and he was mildly successful as their closer. No reason to think he can't repeat and maybe go 70 innings this year. He's also coming off offseason clean up surgery so that's another thing to monitor. Hicks had surgery in June, so you'd think at best he's back around the all star break and will likely need to get broken in - I highly doubt he's in the closer conversation until the earliest August, and by that point Martinez should either be established or out of the role already, so Hicks is essentially a non entity in regards to thinking about Martinez. To me at an ADP of 190 Martinez is at a great price to profit. We just don't know where he will be for sure. If he is named the closer, he will hit value. If he makes it into the starting rotation, which I think is unlikely, he still isn't a terrible gamble at 190. As for Gallegos, I would think he is the clear front runner. Gant is solid but does not profile as a closer. Brebbia does have the profile but Gallegos is simply better. Andrew Miller is locked into the fireman role. At an ADP of 209 Gallegos is essentially free. In summary, to me both Martinez and Gallegos are nice values at this point in time. Gallegos probably has the higher upside but its less likely its realized, IMO. That being said, when you are past pick 200 upside is typically more important.
  12. Durability is a risk for all catchers. I'd be shocked if he reached 140 games. On most AL teams he might be able to get some starts at DH but with Judge, Stanton, Voit, Andujar, and Frazier the Yankees are already loaded with DH types. If he reaches 120 games you should be happy. His NFBC ADP is at 85, which seems fair given the durability risk and potential reward. The decision to draft Gary is more a sign of your overall strategy and view of late catchers. If you want to have an elite catcher, Gary is at a fair price. If you are inclined to wait on catchers, then obviously Gary isn't even in the discussion for your team. I do think his value relative to the other top 2 catchers (Realmuto at 55, Grandal and 95) is very good. He's not 30 picks worse than Realmuto and much better than 10 picks higher than Grandal. So if you are looking to get an elite catcher I'd be inclined to go with Gary in the 7th or 8th round of standard drafts. He's been an elite catcher 3/4 of his MLB seasons, chances are he is elite again.
  13. There will surely be fights. Any time a player is struggling this is all they will hear about. Pitchers will throw at them. Opposing games will be filled with fans banging garbage cans. Its going to be a huge distraction for them all year.
  14. I'm sure he can work something out with Red Sox to effectively resign while not sacrificing money. I would think he and Hinch might be on the hook for some of their guaranteed contracts anyway due to breaching their contract.