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Everything posted by Maxcd99

  1. It’s not like we’re going blind on ADP here. Fantrax may not be the ultimate resource but it’s ADP is better than nothing and it appears Yahoo and Fantrax’ ADPs we’re close to my selection.
  2. I made both of these picks. I think I got solid value for Hiura in that he is an elite hitter who has recently developed legitimate power into his game. I think he'll be a top 25 player for years to come, although with MI in particularly deep this year, this selection could have been improved. He hit .303 with 19 bombs and 9 SB in half a season's AB. If you extrapolate it to a full season, which has it's obvious flaws, you get a line very similar to Javier Baez' 2018 near MVP season. With Robles, there are few players that provide plus values in SB but don't have negatives everywhere else. The tools are real, and with appropriate rounding, he went 15/30 last season. The OPS sucks, but he's 22 years old. I've followed Robles for years in the minors so I have a bit of bias, but I believe in the hit tool and think with the current scarcity in SB Robles is a bargain
  3. Max Acosta is quickly becoming one of the best prospects in the 2019 J2 class. The Athletic has an incredible article on Acosta for subscribers and Baseball America is very bullish on their writeup on him for their Rangers Top 10 too. He was not a top prospect in the class, signing for only $1.6 million, but he's both improved physically and has an incredible work ethic. Some snippets (first three from The Athletic, second from Prospects1500, third from Baseball America, bolded portions are for emphasis): There's a lot to dream on with Acosta. If he crushes it in the Arizona league next season, as a 17 year old, he'll likely be a top 25 prospect this time next year. He would have a very similar resume to what Marco Luciano has now and has the potential to be a very quick riser.
  4. Trout v Acuna seemed like a really tough choice but after giving it a closer look, Trout for sure was the top option for me. Acuna, naturally, has a lot of hype surrounding his near 40/40 season but I wanted to put that in the backseat and think if he's going to achieve that next season. The basepaths are a bulk of Acuna's value, and nowadays, teams really want to make sure their superstars don't get hurt. It wasn't too long ago when Trout himself was a 40/40 threat but then all of a sudden he stopped running. Stealing bags leads to injuries and no team will put their star into that risk if they can avoid that. Given that Trout's value comes from categories that aren't SBs, giving him a higher floor, selecting him made more sense. If Acuna steals 40, he will likely be better than Trout next season. If he steals 20, Trout will be the better option. I'd rather take Trout now and build around SB-based players later.
  5. I'm now in, the league invitation blended in with other Fantrax emails.
  6. While this has been true since Chapman was acquired, Dellin was tested out as a closer earlier in his career to no avail. Mariano retired in 2013, with that David Robertson was next in line and immediately became the closer in 2014. Dellin, recovering from injuries, rose his way up NYY's bullpen, received an All-Star bid, and established himself as a high-K 8th inning set up man. That offseason, Robertson leaves in FA and the Yanks sign Andrew Miller to set up Betances. Miller at this time was a good but not great set up man for Boston and was traded earlier that season to Baltimore in their run for the AL East. This happened at the same time Zach Britton broke out as his first year as a closer and Miller at no point was closing for the O's. Entering 2015, the Yankees closer spot became open due to Robinson's departure. Betances had every opportunity to take it and run but kept blowing things up in the 9th. Although not signed to become a closer, Miller took over, dominated, and the position was his. Chapman was acquired the first time in 2016 and then at the trade deadline, him and Miller got dealt to the Cubs and Indians respectively. Betances again couldn't establish himself as the bonafide go to guy in New York, so when the opportunity came to sign Chapman in free agency, the Yankees pounced. Betances has had opportunity but has never been able to seal the deal. I'd imagine Betances will cost a top 150 or so pick, maybe higher, if there's hype for him taking over for the Mets. Unless things have changed with him mentally, I do not think he is able to close in the 9th given his history with the Yankees.
  7. This team should have started rebuilding in 2014 after the Knicks barely missed the 8th seed to the Hawks. This would’ve only made them one season behind the 76ers rebuild. Instead they’ve consistently tried to improve their roster and have never fully committed to the rebuild. Even now, they have not committed to the rebuild. Robinson’s talent is immense but I don’t think he’ll be an all league player this season. I don’t see what is stopping him from reaching that next season, however. Under a Dolan, Perry, and Mills leadership, never doubt the Knicks’ ineptitude.
  8. I’m a longtime knicks fan and definitely don’t think this is true. The Knicks had a terrible roster last year, instead of trading talent away for picks, they traded for cap space. The #1 intent of that cap space was to use it for Durant. That didn’t work out, so they used it for veteran players. They did not use it to absorb bad contracts of other teams in exchange for draft picks. The Knicks preforming worse this season in comparison to last season despite signing veteran players is a coaching Problem. So the coach got fired. If the Knicks were winning more, Fitzrdale would not have been fired. The front office clearly wanted to improve this season, not tank, based off the front office’s offseason transactions. Since the coaching thus far has made the front office look terrible (as it should) the coach gets fired. If Robinson’s game improves he could be an amazing center, but right now, he is extremely raw both on offense and defense. He needs to outplay the players in front of him for him to earn those minutes.
  9. In a 12 team dynasty PPR, my team with Lamar, Devonte Adams, OBJ, Kamara, Gurley, Kelce, Kittle, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, David Johnson, and DK Metcalf will be missing playoffs (6 spots). I am 2nd in the league in points while also in 2nd for points scored against...this rarely happens since not having to play yourself as a good team makes the strength of schedule take a hit. Two weeks ago, I dropped the highest point total in my league's 5 year history during a week when I played the league's worst team, where pretty much an average performance would have secured me a win. I forgot to set my lineup one week during the entire season and I would have narrowly won that matchup by 2-5 points. That matchup will end up costing me a playoff spot. Yahoo projected my team to go 13-0 on draft day and when looking at weekly predictions I was only predicted to lose one matchup the entire season (by 1 point noless). If I had won this would have been a three-peat for me. I would likely have the #1 pick if I win my league's consolation bracket, but I traded it away for David Johnson in order to double down on my championship pursuits. Rough season for me, good thing it wasn't a money league. I will end the season at either 4-9 or 5-8.
  10. The trade to Texas was big writing on the wall that he'd debut this season. The bulk of Tampa's trades, including the Solak deal, were done to clear 40 man roster space. Solak is Rule 5 eligible this offseason so they would have lost his rights had he not been on the 40-man in the offseason. At that point, might as well see what they had in him. If he keeps hitting I see no reason why he can't take Odor's job.
  11. Of course he could be. He also could be the next JP Crawford, Dansby Swanson, Clint Frazier, Ian Happ, Bradley Zimmer, Lewis Brinson, Orlando Arcia, Manny Margot, Brett Phillips, Franklin Barreto Addison Russell, or the two guys that I think most aptly compare to him at this point: Joc Pederson and Byron Buxton. Every player I mentioned had 5 tool superstar hype, although maybe not all to Robert's degree, and were all significantly more valuable before their professional debuts than after it in leagues with substantial minor league rosters. People are spoiled with Acuna. The only player who has had a similar career trajectory to him was Mike Trout who debuted in 2011. That's 7 years in between him and Acuna's debut. Expect that and you're bound for disappointment.
  12. I feel like there has to be a distinction between sell high and hype trending down. Pretty much everyone listen in the writeup above except for those in "the waiting list" has had their stock or general value decrease over the past few weeks. The window to sell high for them is too late and already gone. Out of the players listed only Waters and Robert make sense as a sell high candidate, mostly in part because those are the only ones whose value has increased over the past few months.
  13. There's no way Luis Robert lives up to the hype he's currently receiving. His MLB debut is bound to disappoint people.
  14. Seems that he's hitting higher in the batting order and he's been on fire since the all star break. Surprised more people aren't big on him
  15. I was about to comment this. Alvarez is definitely one of the better guys from the 2018 J2 class and has done nothing but hit. Super far away but I'm intruiged by his development
  16. I wasn't attacking you or anything I was just purely talking from a player comparison stand point. You're right in Hoskins wasn't ranked...that's totally on me and I guess the hype just built rather quickly on him before getting promoted. Looking back at it now he was old for most of the levels he hit well at. Alvarez definitely was a top 100 guy heading into this season and even made Baseball Prospectus' top 101 heading into 2018. Even then, any reluctance to list him was soley based on defensive concerns, which is why Beer is lowly ranked on prospect sites too. If Trent Clark toiled in the minors for a few years and was in his mid-late 20s then those guys would make more sense as situational comparisons, but Grisham (had to force myself to type it there) is only 22. I wouldn't say he was a consensus top 50 guy a few years back but even based off what you posted he was definitely consensus top 100, and that's with taking into account only a half season of pro ball under his belt. There's a big difference between being a bottom 10 or compensation pick 1st rounder and being in discussion for top 10 of the draft class. Looking at MLB and Fangraph's draft ranking, since those are the only free ones I can pull up, ranked him 12th overall and fangraphs 7th. The position players sandwiched between him on Fangraph's ranking are Kyle Tucker and Andrew Benitendi. From my eyes, late first round picks are a gamble and have a decent rate of flaming out as starting players. If you can find any starting talent at all in the 2nd round or later then you've exceeded the expectations of most picks there. Guys like Grisham that have his star fade quickly but regain it before getting promoted do not appear often, as most just flame out entirely or emerge when they're 25-27 as a grinder through their minor league system. My point is that Clark was a top of the draft talent in 2015 and substantiated it in his professional debut. He's 3 years younger than usual post hype guys used as comparison. There's legitimate upside with him even though he was written off earlier in his career and I can't wait to see how he makes a splash in the majors.