Whizzinator

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  1. Guys on innings limits increasing in value is biggest impact in my mind. Urias perhaps the single biggest beneficiary Arguably proven closers and day 1 closers go up some as the timeframe to pick up and benefit from replacements declines. Prospects a good question. I think teams will approach differently—but agree that service time details will matter there. If schedule is extra dense (doubleheaders and few days off) utility guys and multi position guys gain a little value in daily leagues as they will play more
  2. It could be the groin---he's an old-school power pitcher where a lot of the velocity is generated from his leg drive. Unfortunately, it could be something else too. "Testing done" is fairly non-specific though I worry it makes a non-groin injury somewhat more likely since they already (I think) had a sense of the groin.
  3. Yeah, the only other thought for that structure is to pay particular attention to $ remaining against the number of players in the top couple tiers. I’d guess a risk is people hoard $$ for stars on teams that happen to be later in the order and then bid crazily for stars late, which never happens in a normal auction (stars always go sooner). Some teams will get left out and those late stars will be overpriced. So If that is how it is trending you want to buy aggressively in the middle and skip the heated bidding late.
  4. I guess it is conceivable the tear only happened this spring but it sure feels more likely that they should have known this a while ago. He is a somewhat interesting option as a draft-and-hold keeper for 2021, but it is hard to feel great about him returning on the normal timeline at this point.
  5. The relative volatility of SP and other players is highly relevant every year in deciding who to draft where, imo. That is why, for me, Severino now is a fascinating guy to think about value-wise. He may well just have the small elbow issue he claims, and thus you might get a top-10 pitcher for top-30ish price. But the chance you pay for a guy who never pitches is also material.
  6. Where would you draft him now? Most drafts someone will take him early, but where does risk-reward balance out? Round 12? 15?
  7. For me closer pickups are incredibly league specific. Size, size of bench, daily.weekly pickups, daily/weekly lineups, manager tendencies, manager quality/activity are huge factors. I have one league with weekly lineups/daily transactions where it is really easy to get closers-in-waiting when the incumbent struggles and thus it isn't essential to buy saves at the auction for more than the first 1-2 months of production. League has short benches, weekly setting for lineups means there are few non-closers rostered, and the owners typically invest a fair amount in starting pitchers. So here, I draft closers as much based on their ability to contribute to ERA/WHIP as saves because you can almost always find saves on the wire over course of a season. I have another league, same size, similar (though overall a bit lower) quality of owner, big benches and daily lineups where there's long been a fixation on closers and LIMA-like approaches and it's super challenging to add saves from the wire many years. There's a lot of setup relievers rostered, so odds are the 'next in line' closer is already on someone's roster. There's an in-season cap so you can't just buy big on guys when the answer is obvious. If you don't draft saves here, you likely have to pay a premium in trade or get really lucky on the wire---some years you can, others you simply can't. The draft approach just needs to be very different for these two scenarios. All to say that while league quality matters, I do think other settings have a huge impact too.
  8. Agreed, that is the risk....and why evidence this spring is going to be a huge factor in where he is drafted. The upside is right up there based on last year, but one cannot have supreme confidence in the Rays usage until we hear something directly from the manager. He could easily be some old-school fireman who gets 10 saves 8-10 wins and 80 innings (with 120 ks)...which will be valuable but not category-wise what people are going to pay for.
  9. Agreed, this is a case where what the manager says (and to a degree how he's used later in the spring) will have a huge impact on where he is drafted/valued. If TB were to come out and say "He is the full time closer" tomorrow, in my mind he'd be top 10 and with upside of top-3.
  10. I believe getting one ace early and then bats is a viable strategy (e.g. JV/Cole). Where I think some writers (and some around here) go too far is when you get 2-3 starters in the first 6-8 rounds. It just makes it harder to build the hitting you need to win. Getting the single ace, though, as an 'anchor' to get you ~1/7th of your total innings is one I will go with depending on value. The risk profile is still worse than a top hitter, but it's much better than a tier-down pitcher.
  11. Took a quick look at the LABR Mixed results. There's two teams (Prospectus and USA Today) battling for the win. Prospectus took 2 starters in first 10 rounds; USA Today 3. They each took only one starter in first five rounds. To me, this is still where the game is---you gotta build a base of hitters and manage from there. I hear people talking about more pitching, more pitching but it is not actually the winning strategy in any of my leagues, nor in the expert leagues I look at each year. I know there's people here who swear by it, and ultimately a great owner can win regardless of which way they tilt. But I think it's worth looking closely at theories that the shift to SP is warranted.
  12. Supposedly he changed his swing to get more loft. In the 1H his GB/FB ratio was 1.51...in 2H it's down to 0.92 (0.67 in August thus far). Maybe real, maybe not. But there are worse bets for the rest of the season.
  13. I hadn't realized, Anderson has been really good since June 1---19 ip, 2.75 ERA, 26/2 K/BB WHIP of 1
  14. Hill is out until September isn’t he?
  15. Indeed---FTJr has been worth Vlad's draft slot for sure.