Div1726

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  1. I really liked the Greinke pick at 61, especially in HTH. Some old guys just get it done. He's healthy and he'll have a great shot at 20 W on Houston if he stays that way. Hoping he has his annual public spring jitters that keeps his price down; I wouldn't let him get past the 4th round.
  2. In 1990, the 49ers had the highest payroll in the NFL at 26.8 million. This was about 20% more than the 2nd highest team (Jets, 22.45). The Giants were 6th (20.5). Pittsburgh was lowest at 13.1, so they paid about 50 cents on the dollar versus the 49ers. The median payroll looks like it was around 19 million.
  3. If the goal from the start was for him to take a little less money so that the Patriots could build a great team around him for a really, really long period of time in NFL terms, then I can't imagine he has any regrets. Cohesive offensive line play and having receivers that can adjust routes under pressure has extended his earning years significantly. 17 straight 10+ win seasons. He'll be able to do whatever he wants post career as well. Luck got a "pay me" contract too and experienced the downside of going that route.
  4. He's the 4th highest paid player in NFL history. If he plays next year he'll pass Peyton for 3rd; if he plays two more years he'll pass Eli for 2nd. They obviously got much bigger first contracts than he did being #1 overall picks versus a 6th rounder. I think he's done better financially than many of you think.
  5. We have to start two running backs. At least as I am prepping for next year, I can't imagine not starting RB/RB in most of my drafts. There are oodles of WR that I can make a top-12 case for in 2020 and I can pluck 3 or even 4 of my favorites from rounds 3-7. Here's a standard list of 38 that I could see having a top 12 season. Edelman is on it but there are plenty of other fish in the WR sea. AFC East: Edelman, Brown, Parker AFC North: JuJu, Landry, OBJ, Boyd, Green, Marquise AFC South: Hilton, Hopkins, Fuller, Chark, AJ Brown AFC West: Keenan, Sutton, Tyreek (17) NFC East: Shepherd, Gallup, Cooper, McLaurin NFC South: Julio, Moore, Ridley, Godwin, Evans, Thomas NFC North: Adams, Robinson, Thielen, Diggs, Golladay, Jones NFC West: Lockett, Deebo, Metcalf, Woods, Kupp (21) Others that are match-up dependent starters at a minimum: Sanders, Jeffery, Miller, Crowder, Anderson, Renfroe, Mike Williams, Perriman, Dionte, Preston Williams, Cooks, Ross, Pascal, DeDe, Tyrell, Slayton, Tate, Kirk.... Even in PPR, Derrick Henry should be a first round pick and I wouldn't let him get past 5 (CMac, Saquon, Thomas, Cook). Once August rolls around, I expect a lot of drafters will agree with me and push the RB up so that there are 16-17 RB going in the first two rounds. That said, my crystal ball wasn't so great last August if I am being honest. .
  6. I don't consider Antonio Brown a bust because in practice I don't think his situation cost too many teams in practice. He played 1 game which he did well in. He otherwise was known to be out and there have been oodles and oodles of viable wide receivers this year in the WR3 range and below. Moore, Landry, Robinson, Sutton, Gallup, John Brown, etc. Chances are you replaced Brown with someone who was productive especially factoring in matchups. JuJu and OBJ on the other hand - you "had" to start them for the first 8-9 games of the year and they probably finished you. OJ Howard is a close third as you "had" to start him for about 6 weeks before moving on, and the TE pool didn't expand until around the 2nd half of the year.
  7. I would nominate Chris Carson and Lamar Jackson. Jackson is going to perceived as a lock for 1000 rushing yards plus QB production and whether he is a first round pick will be the hottest offseason topic in the industry; I expect the public to buy in and his ADP to be in the 8-12 range. Fournette should be in the mix as well; think his ADP will be ahead of Julio's if 2019 doesn't have any big surprises for us. .
  8. Austin Ekeler. A strange choice perhaps because he is having a wonderful 2019 and is going to win a lot of leagues and may appear to have a better 2020 situation. I think he's going to drift into the middle of round 2 if Gordon leaves due to salivation over his high value touches. I'd bet on a down year for a few reasons. 1. No proof he can handle lead running back duties for 16 games; an underrated skill that we often don't appreciate. 2. Great pass catching running back seasons are rarely followed up in the non-McCaffrey NFL world. 3. Rivers is drifting towards done but I suspect he'll be back for one more go-around. That said, it might be a little like Eli in 2019 and that could make for a lot of instability. 4. A 2nd RB will get a lot of work whether it is Justin Jackson or another player; the player will probably be of the caliber that he is perceived not to be a threat to Ekeler but I expect a timeshare. 5. Ekeler has a concussion from December 2018. . Feels similar to Jerick McKinnon before the ACL in 2018 when he was going in the 21-27 pick range. I think we can see now that that would have been a misevaluation if McKinnon had stayed perfectly healthy; SF would have used Breida and Mostert. If I'm wrong and his ADP is 4th-5th round range, then cross him off this list.
  9. It's because they can't run the ball. They played 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB on every offensive snap with a ton of hurry-up. Last year they had Allen, Gronk, Andrews and Brown. The OL lost those two guys and also Wynn; Scarnecchia can make up for that somewhat but the biggest hole is at TE. Watson is the oldest non QB/P/K in the whole league, played every snap and was the only TE to see the field, and is more of a route running TE than a pure blocker (even though he stayed in to block a lot Sunday). They decided their best chance to win was to put the game in Brady's hands, let him make pre-snap reads and not let the Ravens substitute which meant RBS were getting drives rather than play by play scenarios. It worked pretty well until Edelman fumbled, although I still don't think they would have won the game. Momentum aside, Baltimore just owned their linebackers all night. I think the way they played in the playoffs last year is what they envisioned with Michel, and certainly Isaiah Wynn was a big part of that vision but he's been pretty much absent the whole year and a half. They had a million tight ends in and out in August and none of them have made the leap. The cold weather is coming, but they're a complete transformed team. I'm dubious they will be able to get back to peak 2018 running this season, and will be looking closely at how they build their team next year to decide what to do with Michel. They probably expected better pass catching form him based on his college performance, but I don't think they are down on him. .
  10. Time to throw a few out there: 1. Russell Wilson will outscore DeShaun Watson: Doesn’t feel too bold to me, but ADP suggests it is. Wilson dropped from QB1 to QB9ish and everyone is expecting regression downward due to a high TD rate, but I think he will regress upward with far more volume. Meanwhile, Watson was #5 and is 2nd or 3rd off the board. He was sacked 60+ times and had to travel on the ground by the end of the season. Hopkins didn’t drop a pass all year. They could start 1-5 with a horrific schedule and Vegas has them underdogs to break .500 after an 11 win season. I think the fantasy community has whiffed on the QB that is most likely to regress downward. I think Watson is the biggest risk at QB due to the penchant for taking sacks (Tunsil won’t fix this immediately) and he’s being taken high enough that it makes little sense to back him up. 2. Will Dissly is a top ten TE. In keeping with the prior prediction, I think here is a completely ignored guy who shouldn’t be ignored. As a rookie, he was the darling of the waiver wire last September after 2 3-5-1 (R-T-TD) games last year. He got hurt and everyone now has amnesia on him. A rookie TE getting that type of production in games 1 and 2 is highly rare. They are going to play a lot of 2 TE sets. He’s healthy and they cut Hollister today. Someone is going to get the volume and I think both Dissly and Vannett are going to step up this year, but let’s start with Dissly based on his start last season. 3. Adam Humphries will outscore Chris Godwin. Again, ADP says this is highly bold but it was entirely the case last season in the second half. For a player that completely whiffed in the fantasy playoffs last year, Godwin is getting an incredible amount of hype. I’m not buying it at all and see him as a massive bust. 4. Kerryon Johnson and James White will be outside the top 36 RB. Johnson in the 2nd round feels crazy to me. White benefitted a lot from Burkhead being out and now Michel is eating into his role. Both guys are DND for me.
  11. Never trust a big butt and a smile.
  12. Does anyone have any idea what Martin's fastball Clocks in at?
  13. Good list. Notably absent from the list is Mychel Givens. There was some high profile weird usage in week 1 of the season but since April 2 I don't see any evidence that indicates any type of timeshare whatsoever. His cementing the position has been masked effectively by Baltimore's constant persistent losing; to me it looks like he might have been a few days behind when the regular season opened and they happened to catch a bunch of close early games. He wouldn't go to the top of this list for me (because, Orioles....) but he'd be in the top 3 (with Parker and Barnes). Still under 30% ownership in CBS leagues. Reasonable to good numbers which cannot be said about anyone else in that bullpen.
  14. Disagree strongly. At 48, this feels like a huge victory for all of us salty old men! He'll have to get out of prison first of course.....