TrueToTheBlue

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  1. How do you think these riots will impact the reopening timelines?
  2. Daily hospitalization rates in Texas appear to be relatively steady since early to mid April. Overall trend may be up slightly the last week or so, but not a dramatic spike. A slight increase could be expected with reopening at the beginning of the month. The increase in confirmed cases has a lot to do with the increase in testing. https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx
  3. Anybody seen any educated guesses on how long immunity lasts after you recover from infection? I haven’t seen any news of people being infected twice in the US (though I could’ve missed it). That’s got to be a good sign, right?
  4. No doubt about it. I’m confident they’ll eventually come to an agreement for this reason. I’m more worried about the health aspect and what happens when someone inevitably tests positive. As you saw in the White House this week, it’s inevitable that it’s going to happen at some point. Are you really going to quarantine a whole team for 14 days in a season that’s already only 82 games? My other concern is we really need to scale up testing. Right now it’d be too big a mess from a PR standpoint if players and everyone else involved was getting tested daily while frontline workers, healthcare workers in particular, aren’t able to get adequate testing. Testing is obviously moving in the right direction. By July 4th will it be to the point where MLB can test nearly everyone daily without looking completely inconsiderate? I hope so but I don’t know.
  5. Wasn’t trying to be snarky. He reponded to a post about how long the lockdown should go on by implying it should go on indefinitely until there’s no risk of loss of life (“One week. One month. Whatever. Lives are saved”) and continued by implying we need to have as few people die from COVID as possible no matter the cost. If you can’t see how that contradicts my point of the balance between lives lost and the costs of the lockdown then I don’t know what to tell you. Several other posters have made the same point I’m attempting to make, so clearly I’m not the only one that’s seeing it this way. I don’t dispute anything else in what you posted, and I do consider you a very well informed person on this topic.
  6. I was going to post almost this exact same thing. The flu is transmitted similarly to Coronavirus. We could significantly lower the number of flu cases and deaths by enacting extreme social distancing - but as a society we believe allowing businesses to open, people to have jobs and freely leave their homes to be worth the cost of additional lives lost to the flu. Now I’m not saying you should just open everything up now and let people die. The Coronavirus and flu are obviously different. I’m just stating that there is a point in which the benefit to the many outweighs the risk to the few, and the damage being done by the lockdown is so severe on so many fronts. Good article on the mental health expected consequences below. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-08/mental-health-care-braces-for-coronavirus-anxiety-and-suicides
  7. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-georgia-model-11588967492 Good article here. It’s only been 14 days, so it’s still early, but so far the number of daily new cases in the state has continued to decrease. Very encouraging early results. Credit to Dr. Toomey and Gov Kemp for going out on a limb knowing they were going to face criticism. The people of Georgia are looking like they may end up being the beneficiaries of this early action. Let’s hope the trend continues. If it does for another week or two I think other governors will have to start taking notice and more aggressive reopening action. It will only stimulate the economy so much as many consumers will still be scared, but getting people back to work and things opened up will no doubt help economically and people’s mental health. Remember the original intent of the lockdown was to not overwhelm the healthcare system, not to necessarily bring the case count down to 0. I feel like this gets lost sometimes since so much has happened between then and now and everything regarding the Coronavirus is just so politicized.
  8. Lol, everyone saw the wild tv ratings for the NFL draft and wants in. I don’t blame them, let’s get sports back!
  9. While I agree with your statement on PPE, I disagree with the general premise of your post. Seniors homes and seniors in general are always going to be the most vulnerable, even if we’re just talking about a bad flu season. Yes, Sweden should have been taking better precautions in senior living homes earlier. But if you nitpick at any countries response to Coronavirus close enough you can find some flaws. I read your article, and I wouldn’t say being lax with senior homes was their strategy, more of an oversight. Last numbers I saw (I think yesterday) were about 50,000 dead from Coronavirus in the US and 26 million that lost their job because of it. That’s for every 1 death, 520 people that have lost their job due to the shutdown. Think about that ratio for a second. Take a look at these articles. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/the-us-economy-has-now-erased-all-job-gains-since-the-great-recession.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/an-unemployment-rate-of-23percent-the-real-jobless-picture-is-coming-together.html With the early results of the antibody tests coming back showing that 10X as many people have been exposed to the virus as expected, it’s looking like the fatality rate of Covid is more in line with the seasonal flu. Of the number of CONFIRMED cases in NYC, I think I saw 95.1% of the deaths were people older than 45. Most were elderly and/or had underlying conditions. Not to sound insensitive, but many of these elderly or immune compromised people may have died from something else in the not so distant future anyway. Yet the economic sacrifices of the masses (even most people that aren’t losing their job are getting crushed) have been so severe. Despite some of the anecdotal stories you hear, the virus is not life threatening to the vast vast majority of the population. There’s got to be more balance here. I think you’ve got to start opening things up soon, while taking precautions for the elderly and vulnerable. Stores opening up an hour early and allowing only the elderly in as we’re seeing now for example. You’ve got to continue opening more and more, so long as you don’t run the risk of overwhelming the health system and everyone who needs treatment can continue to get it. Sweden, while their handling of the crisis may not have been perfect, has been able to keep their economy open without overrunning their healthcare system. To me that makes it, generally speaking, a success.
  10. In some parts of the country yes, in some parts of the country no. The fear is that when you start opening things back up again, as Georgia for example is starting to do, the curve will start to spike again. Cases will undoubtedly increase as you open more and more things up, but to what extent no one really knows for sure (despite what some on this board will say). Sweden, for example, has not instituted a strict lock down and is doing quite well managing the virus in comparison to much of the rest of the world, with their healthcare system seeing less volume than anticipated. Sweden’s people have largely practiced social distancing on their own accord and have generally acted responsibly given the circumstances. I think the hope is that as we start opening more and more businesses up, the same can happen here and we can get parts of the economy up and running without overwhelming the healthcare system. Widespread testing (which we’ll get to eventually even though it’s taking forever) will make this easier as we’ll be able to hopefully quickly identify and isolate the infected. From an economic standpoint, at a minimum, a major recession is guaranteed. More than likely, a depression is looming - and every day the country is shut down the economic prospects look worse, and the prospects of a depression equal to or worse than the Great Depression increase. There’s also still so much we don’t know too like a) how long has it been in the US b) how many Americans have had it and c) once you do have it, are you immune and if so for how long. CSB - I went to the Super Bowl this year and sat with a bunch of 49ers fans from San Fran. A week later I got sick with a fever and dry cough. I’d love to have an antibody test to know if I had it or if it was just the flu. I feel like everybody has a story like this. Bottom line of all my rambling, there’s so much uncertainty that nobody knows what things will look like in 3 weeks. Just gotta keep social distancing as much as you can and hope for the best.
  11. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/kbo-season-will-start-may-5-here-are-four-ways-mlb-can-follow-koreas-lead-for-a-2020-season/ We doing some KBO fantasy leagues this year? Dan Straily might win the Cy Young award like some dude on this board was touting him for 6 years ago.
  12. Thinking about how this is going to play out it’s going to be a long and painful process. I personally don’t see there being any sports in 2020, I think it’ll be until spring 2021 and in empty stadiums.
  13. To those crushing Florida for reopening their beaches, let’s just see how it plays out. I agree that it seems a little early and aggressive. Could clusters develop and cases go up in the area because of this? Yes, possible. Could the trend line for the area stay the same and this be be one of many baby steps to getting back to normal? Yes, possible. It’s not like we’re talking about opening up night clubs in NYC. People should be able to maintain social distancing guidelines on non crowded beaches. Remember this is most often transmitted through sustained contact with someone with the virus, in close quarters and many times indoors. It would be good to identify outdoor activities that are less susceptible to virus outbreaks. Let’s just see what happens before we crush the decision.
  14. Cases are still on the rise in NJ? Deaths are always the last number to fall, so that doesn’t concern me as much in the context of where we are on the curve. Can you provide a link for the case increase? I thought cases in NY and NJ were starting to flatten or even go down.