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Everything posted by tschwicht

  1. So weird. I keep seeing this "Ingram is a flex" take. He is RB11 in my 12 team PPR league (1 point per reception, 10pt bonus 100 yards rushing/receiving) for a grand total of.. 14 receptions on the year. That makes him an RB1 with about half the receptions of most everyone ahead of him and many behind him. Admittedly I drafted WR/TE/WR to start. So happy to have grabbed his production where I got it. But there simply aren't enough RBs producing better than him to call him a flex in whatever format.
  2. Haven't been in this thread for quite a few weeks, but thought I'd come back to eat crow. Lamar is the real deal (for fantasy purposes). I just hope he can stay upright. I think they could use a little more variance in his runs (he got stopped a few times when they knew it was coming). Obviously as an Ingram owner I wish they'd use him more and surprise more with Lamar, I think he'd see even bigger gains, but it's hard to knock what they are doing. I have a feeling he's going to be on a lot of championship teams.
  3. I'm dropping him in my WR3 spot for Larry Fitzgerald who has gone AWOL. So look for Fitz to drop 100+ this week.
  4. I don't think Mahomes owners or Kelce owners the past few years agree. Or really Tyreek owners for that matter. Or Jamaal Charles (well ok there was some pain there), Spencer Ware at the right time, Kareem Hunt owners, Damien Williams owners last year. There is only so much the ball can go around. It's sorting itself out. If you're expecting a guy like Hardman to come in his rookie year and just because he's playing for the Chiefs and Pat is slinging the ball around he's going to be a star, I don't know what to tell you.
  5. Agreed. Pat is still looking for him and a few he normally would have had dropped this past game. Even Watkins being in there should have opened it up more. The big ones are coming if that line can keep Pat upright.
  6. I don't think it's people being too hard on him as much as it is people in this thread acting like Lamar is all of the sudden going to be QB1. He had a good start against horrible defenses (and yes as a Chiefs fan I include them unlike others here), and he's going to regress. He's not a bad fantasy play. I'd probably start him every week. But he's a top 10 guy, not a top 3-5 guy for a lot of people and those on the bandwagon here will argue it to the death. Such is rotoworld 🤣
  7. Agreed that it won't likely happen because of money. One can hope. A lot of preseason rankings had the Bears very high. Here's one where they were ranked 7th. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001042972/article/nfl-preseason-power-rankings-patriots-rams-saints-lead-way There was a lot to be excited for. I'm from Illinois too though so of course opinions will be high here, but I'd say I have an equal split of Packer and Bears fans as friends. The Packers always have a shot with Rodgers under center but I think they are exceeding a lot of people's expectations.
  8. I'm never one to root for someone to get hurt, but if you're holding Gallman like I am thinking that ankle injuries can be a big burden, especially if rushed, you have to think that this gives a lot more reasoning to be happy leaving Gallman on your bench to see what happens.
  9. I think this is the best outlook going forward. I wouldn't say the odds are saying that Gordon comes back to a split timeshare. They are strongly in favor of him getting heavy usage as it makes sense for him and the team. But I agree that I think both backs will have value and I am not sold on Gordon jumping back to an RB1 immediately or even maybe the course of the year. He was out the first few weeks and sometimes guys get injured from that. Bell is different in that he came back the next year and had camp and was there for the first game. He did have that injury and it showed down the stretch last year. But of course it would. No one knows. I'm still happy getting him where I and many others did in the 6th round or later. Ekeler owners should be happy too even though he's back as there will still be value there as well and the first few games probably pushed a lot of people into good position to start the season.
  10. Last year doesn't predict anything for a RB who reported much less than someone with a contract dispute that missed the first few weeks of the season. I agree, the league changes year to year. I'd say week to week in some scenarios. But this particular situation, I think it's pretty safe to make the assumption that this isn't going to be a situation where they decide to ride it out with Ekeler or not use Gordon to his full potential.
  11. Where there is smoke there is fire. Please let this happen! 49ers fine, but man if Green Bay could make it happen that would be awesome. The Packers were an afterthought with the Bears as the likely division winners this year. It wouldn't surprise me if they made a move thinking they can win now.
  12. I keep telling myself Gore will slow down as the year goes on. I find myself also telling myself "keep telling yourself that" because Gore is not human. Honestly though, I'm holding for what I think will be a much increased role as the year goes on. He isn't getting all the touches this year, but I feel as the year goes on he's going to produce more and more and take more share. Having Gore there alongside him this year is also such a good opportunity for him and I would bet that's a big reason the Bills brought him in, along with his inability to age and keep producing.
  13. He's saying it's ridiculous that you don't think history has any part in what happens moving forward. It's pretty clear to me. NFL teams do what they can to have their best chance at winning. Looking at someone's history as a player is the first indicator in this situation. If this was a mid tier back, say he's been pretty good his whole career but if there is a hot hand and he's injured then they might roll with that hand. When you have a top tier RB (I didn't say top), and the Chargers CLEARLY think he is that based on offering him $10m a year, then you're going to use him. That's not a hot hand situation. They had enough faith to offer him that contract because they feel he gives them the best chance at winning. Just because he thought it wasn't enough and didn't sign, doesn't mean it wasn't a GREAT offer. An offer that would only be made if they felt he was near the top of the league at his position. And hot hand situations are very rare unless both talents are considered equal. NFL teams trust in previous production and skill. If you think Ekeler is fetching $10m from the Chargers or anyone else for that matter, I don't know what to tell you. The fact is Gordon is viewed by the Chargers and pretty much everyone else in the league as a top tier back and Ekeler is not. They are going to use him. It doesn't mean that Ekeler isn't going to play or produce. I don't know why everyone is so caught up in this. He had his shot for a few weeks and put up good numbers for you, and will likely drift back to a lesser role but still see the field and score some fantasy points as a 6+ round pick. Ekeler AND Gordon owners both got a steal this year in my opinion. It's just simply Gordon's time now to be the lead guy. And I totally agree with what the guy above said. Melvin came back without any negative comments, without any drama about getting paid. He reported. He's there to work. They are calling him the lead back. They obviously had conversations before he agreed to come back. No way he does without knowing where he fits after the first few weeks. I said this awhile back, but him coming back and playing is the best situation for both him and the team. He gets to earn that contract he wants (because that is most important to him and this is the only way he does it), and the Chargers get a contract year Gordon who is more motivated than ever to ride this year. He will be happy to have the chance.
  14. I think we can all agree he's probably not working his way into the top 15-20 but I do think he can have some weeks where he will be there. I feel like he can be a consistent contributor though. [...] He's been consistent with decent stat lines for two weeks and his usage is trending upwards. His competition isn't showing anything. I'm happy to have dropped Darwin Thompson (who I did draft) for him. I think he's good for someone in my case or someone similar, who went WR heavy in the beginning of the draft (I went WR-TE-WR) and are set there but lacking RB depth. Looks like he could have a decent floor going forward and the usage could still continue to go up.
  15. A week ago when people were thinking he wouldn't come back until end of November was absolutely looking like a sell high window. One of the top producing RBs in the league through week 2, Gordon holdout seeminginly endless, and potential if Gordon came back later and not playing until after the bye that they might just roll with Ekeler the entire time. It's absolutely a different story now than it was before. There was a sell high window because his value will never be worth what it was a week ago. You weren't getting Julio for him but you absolutely could have gotten more than now. High end RB2 is like top 10/12-15/16 back. You think he's putting that up when Gordon is back 100%? No way. High end flex maybe. He's not worthless but high end RB2 I just don't see it.
  16. Why is Antonio special if Gordon wants to be viewed as the top RB in the league, or get paid like it at least? Beckahm's issues have not been with faking an injury because he didn't get what he wanted. Ramsey just played Thursday. He's going to play this weekend. He's making a statement. He's also an All-Pro cornerback who already is starting to look bad with his altercation with his coach. They've already put him on the trade block. I read an article this morning that word around the league is no one wants to touch him after this Antonio Brown thing. You want guys that can be there the whole year to help you win, not just if it doesn't go your way. And no, you can't guarantee me a team would pay a top RB contract for Melvin Gordon if he "faked" an injury. Why? The Chargers won't. There has been no trade market for him. No one wants to do it now. The longer this holdout hangs over him, the worse it looks. Why do you think he's coming back now? He came to grips with the following: A.) The Chargers weren't giving him a top RB contract this year. B.) No trades materialized. He wasn't getting that contract from anyone else either. C.) If he truly wants that top RB contract, he's going to have to play this year and earn it no matter how much he thinks he already has. He won't be denied if he comes back now and absolutely kills it. That has to be his plan. He wants one thing, that's a massive contract. This is his only route to get it. Not faking an injury, not coming back and playing 6 games. Would he get a contract somewhere? Sure. He's not getting a bellcow contract (he wasn't even used that way with the Chargers in 2018 look at Ekeler's carry/receiving target share) that top RBs like Zeke and Bell are getting. Not with a few injuries in his past. Not with his usage and production to this point. I'm not saying he's not bad. He's really, really good. But if he wants a top contract, causing team problems a year before you even hit the franchise tag isn't going to do it. He realizes this, like everyone else did. So many people were talking about how he needs new people around him. Anyway, believe what you want. I'll be happy to have him back in my lineup either way!
  17. A 50/50 split because Ekeler is playing well isn't out of the question. I'll admit, they may want to still give Ekeler run. They did last year. Although I think it would be more 60/40. I just don't think the Chargers would do it to spite him so he gets less money. They will do whatever they think will help them win, and this definitely could be an option that they feel helps them the most. Gordon coming back early is a sign he is at least talking to the team in my eyes. I'm sure if he comes back he wants the chance to ball out and secure his next contract. Maybe he wants to come back and split carries to stay healthy but I don't think that is likely. Any down you are on the field in the NFL especially carrying the football can bring injury. Sitting out makes sense from an injury standpoint, but a split doesn't. If you're on the field and you're trying to get top RB money, which is bellcow RB money, you're wanting the ball every down you can get it. I think he's likely had these conversations with the team about his return. Will be interesting to see!
  18. Gordon is the better RB, right? The Chargers are paying him and there is a good chance won't resign him, right? Why would they not feed him every chance they get to get every penny out of his contract? This benefits the Chargers because they get all Gordon's production. They also keep Ekeler fresh for when Gordon leaves for a big deal next year. This benefits Gordon, because if he wants that huge RB contract he needs to produce this year too. It's clear it wasn't happening without another year of showing it. You think the Chargers are going to be spiteful and hurt their chances of winning just to ruin Melvin Gordon's contract? If anything, if the Chargers don't want to pay him, they want some other team to pay him as much money as possible. The takes on these forums are hilarious. "He's going to play one down and say his foot hurts." "The Chargers are going to hold a massive emotional personal grudge to make Melvin Gordon earn less money." NFL teams want to win. They have to win. It's how they keep fans and make money. It's how they attract free agents. It's the whole point of this thing. If you're paying Melvin Gordon $5 million this year, as a RB, you're getting everything you can out of him.
  19. Agree on the Ekeler take. He got taken in the 6th the very pick after I took Gordon in my league. It was just as much risk as taking Gordon there. Could be 1 week could be 8+ before he saw the field. I imagine in many leagues he got drafted even later. For what he did to start your season out he was a good value, still may have a little flex value, and might have a few more weeks before Gordon takes on the full load. The contract dispute in my eyes is a null point. He is playing on his current contract this year, no question about it, and if he wants the top rb contract he wants he will play well. I think he finally came to grips with the fact that A.) The Chargers weren't giving him a top RB contract this year. B.) No trades materialized. He wasn't getting that contract from anyone else either. C.) If he truly wants that top RB contract, he's going to have to play this year and earn it no matter how much he thinks he already has. He won't be denied if he comes back now and absolutely kills it. That has to be his plan. He wants one thing, that's a massive contract. This is his only route to get it. Not faking an injury, not coming back and playing 6 games. Agree with game shape as well though and you see injuries happen when guys come back midseason without camp and all that like everyone else had. Anyone who is saying he is tucking his tail is silly. He's doing what he should have done. That says a lot about him, and if he balls out he will get the contract he wants next year from someone. This was the move all along, it wasn't the year for him to hold out.
  20. A lot of these guys have sources with every team but don't get the info first. Once something comes out (first to report usually gets it when a lot of people around the team get it), they contact their sources to see if they can glean any extra little tidbit to add to the story to stay relevant and in the know. They can't just report the same thing. Hence him throwing in the part about not playing.
  21. With everything that just happened with Antonio Brown, image matters. And yes, it counts in contract negotiations. He might not care what people think of him. NFL Owners and GMs will give a contract to a guy that holds out under the terms of the contract. That's business and everyone understands it. Faking an injury? No way in hell. You've now become unreliable, not living up to your contract, and a problem. That goes beyond business. And that's worse than an off the field incident in many people's eyes. Your'e right, they don't care what you look like as a person off the field. But not being reliable or trustworthy to your team? Chance you might sit off the field any time something doesn't go your way? Not going to fly. I didn't say Gordon wouldn't get a contract. I said he wouldn't get a TOP RB contract like he wants. No team is going to give a TOP RB contract to a guy that pretends like his foot is injured to sit out the rest of the year. Melvin doesn't want A CONTRACT. he wants A TOP RB CONTRACT. If he wants that, he reports and plays and kills it. Bottom line. If he doesn't, he'll get a contract next year but it won't be the one he wants.
  22. He was coming back no matter what. And he still needs to play this year or no one is going to sign him. NFL teams aren't going to deal with players that pretend they injured a foot on the first play. Sounds cool on a fantasy football forum, but that's not how it works. His image is completely ruined by that and there is no way he gets a top deal after a stunt like that. Holding out is one thing. What you're describing would kill his chance at top RB money. When he does decide to come back it is to play, and he needs to show out for his next contract. I think Melvin realized that the market isn't there for a top RB contract for him RIGHT NOW. He's going to have to come back and put the numbers up to get the contract he wants in free agency.
  23. I don't agree with everyone saying he has standalone value. The Chargers are going to get every penny worth they can out of Melvin Gordon when he reports. They are going to ride him into the ground as he's not likely coming back. And Gordon is going to come back and play lights out to make sure he gets his next contract. It's a win for both if Gordon comes back and kills it. The Ekeler owner in my league was asking about Gordon in trade to me this morning. Anyone that considers an Ekeler trade offer is aware of the situation so you aren't getting a big return on him. You're better off trying to trade for Gordon yourself incase that owner is shaky about it, but if they've held this long they likely aren't giving that piece up either. I offered James White for Ekeler in a PPR league this morning with the thought that Gordon is coming back and will run that backfield but it would nice to have Ekeler as the handcuff. I think it was probably too generous, but maybe you can get a deal for a decent RB2/flex to the Gordon owner? I don't know, it's a tough one. The Gordon owner didn't hold for this long to think he's coming back to a RBBC. If they had faith this long (like me) and wasted a bench spot it's because they thought they were getting the real thing and will likely ride it out (also me) whether right or wrong.
  24. The Ekeler owner in my league mysteriously was asking "what I might want for Gordon" this morning. I said nothing as I imagine in about 4 weeks he puts me over the edge for the year. Saw the news and said "He's reporting soon. But I'll give you James White for Ekeler to allow you to cut your losses." Saw he might be reporting Thursday. Downgraded that offer to Wayne Gallman 🤣
  25. He happened to win more coin tosses than not for most of his big plays. That should come back to the mean and some of those will be INTs. They stick with short/intermediate dumpoffs to TE/RB and don't go downfield often. When they do go downfield he's not putting the ball where it should be and to this point his WR have made up for it with some decent plays. That won't continue if he throws the ball the way he has been, and teams will start taking away the short stuff as the season goes on. It's week 3. 15 points is not that much over a whole season. He's in the mix right now for sure. That's my opinion. It is good rationale. The only thing anyone else has said is "he rushes and he has lots of points right now". No one is refuting anything I'm saying about his play and instead agreeing that he's not a great QB, but somehow that doesn't have any effect on the probability that he stays in the top 5 season long. And I've said he will probably make top 10. People are acting like I'm calling him a bum in fantasy. Just not true. I don't own Lamar but I watched the whole game. I wonder how many here did instead of looking at the stat line. I'll see myself out of here now.