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About Alconbury

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  1. There is significant upside brewing here season long imo. He has been my last pick in most leagues this year with the idea he could be Shanahan's brilliant solution to the big slot he wants in this offense. They have been trying to materialize this role last few years drafting Jalen Hurd and Jauan Jennings. Furthermore, it all makes too much sense regarding Reed's history of concussions to keep him away from blocking and hits as much as possible and let him eat in the slot on third downs and in the red zone, where he always has been elite and still seems to be. He's better than slot WR Trent Taylor on third downs and their best receiving weapon in the redzone, Kittle included. I remember reading a beat writer mentioning during camp that watching Reed this summer had made him realize RZ is an area where Kittle still has a lot to learn. Reed was also reported to be the best and most consistent pass catcher in camp not named Kittle. Slot WR and main RZ weapon for an offense of this caliber, "disguised" as a TE for fantasy? Money. With how the TE position looks every year, this upside is well worth a bench stash for a little while longer to see if it materializes. If you are concerned about snap rates thus far (I kinda was after week one), this Shanahan quote from today had me confident Reed's involvement will keep going up: Jordan was just taking time getting into our offense and stuff and the late start and he had a couple setbacks in camp too, when he started to get going. He wasn’t quite ready to be thrown out there that much and he wasn’t quite needed to right away. He was needed to a little bit more last week as he got better. We’ll see if Kittle comes back and how much that changes, but I know health-wise and mentality-wise, he was ready for what he did last week and he had no setbacks.
  2. Jordan Raanan is a beat writer. A reporter. What they report (quotes from staff, players etc) can be great for analyzing fantasy impact, but a good rule is to (apart from a couple exceptions) never trust them for direct fantasy advice. Their talent is reporting, not analyzing. We had an example just one week ago, when a beat writer suggested there would be a time share between Conner and Snell in week 2, which scared off many fantasy players from starting Conner. If there's a quote from within the organization saying Dion Lewis will be the top back, that would be a whole different story obviously. But there isn't. Of course Jordan Raanan's analysis can turn out to be correct when all is said and done, but that's not the point here. Make your own analysis with help from what beat writers report, but don't blindly trust their analysis.
  3. To be fair though, who wasn’t? Especially after what was being said about him in Hard Knocks. One of the easiest potential breakouts and draft values to sniff up with that media exposure.
  4. Man, you are still missing the whole essence of the strategy. We are still talking about two separate things. Hopefully most other readers get it, but I will give it one final try explaining. Obviously Cook and someone else than Mattison would have been a better choice, in hindsight. That's not what I'm arguing about. Imagine if Cook were to go down early, the idea would then be Mattison picking up the slack and get you the points that Giants average to opposing backfields. It doesn't matter if Cook gets 23.7 and Mattison 0, Cook gets 11.85 and Mattison 11.85 or Cook goes down right away, gets 0 and Mattison 23.7. Or anything in between those three scenarios. In any case you'd get 23.7 from two players, going by what NYG give up to backfields. 23.7 from two players combined, means 23.7/2 = 11.85 average per player. 11.85 is RB2 numbers. Doesn't have to be both getting RB2 numbers, but their two scores add up to two RB2 numbers. That's the whole idea. - If you start Cook and and an average RB2 (say Michel, Howard, Freeman or White) from another team, worst case scenario is Cook goes down early and you get close to 0 points and RB2 numbers from Michel/Howard/Freeman/White. 0 + RB2 = ONE RB2 worst case scenario. - If you start Cook and Mattison, worst case scenario Cook goes down early, but since Mattison steps in and the idea is Giants give up 23.7 points that game. 0 points from Cook, 23.7 points from Mattison. 23.7 = TWO RB2 worst case scenario. This is a smart strategy in some situations going into a game if the starter's (Cook, David Johnson or whoever) status is uncertain. It's about minimizing risk by raising your floor, at the expense of lowering your ceiling. If you don't get it by now, I'll just have to wish you a good day.
  5. Ah, it's clear to me now you didn't understand what I originally meant. I meant what NYG was giving up to backfields coming into week 7, which was 23.7 half-PPR points per game, if you divide that out over two players (23.7/2 = 11.85 per player). 11.85 is RB2 numbers. I didn't mean gamble on (this I agree was a big gamble) Edmonds actually reaching 11.85, but betting on DJ+Edmonds reaching 23.7. See the difference? It had nothing to do with Edmonds role vs DJ. It's just a strategy of playing a whole backfield vs a poor opponent, if the starter's status is uncertain. Playing both, not just one of them.
  6. Three rushing TD's and the 34.2/2 points each were way more than the strategy statistically and theoretically suggested coming into the game (23.7/2), so having that as an argument against it doesn't make sense. That success was not expected by anyone, not even his mom. And well, now we are just looking at small nuances in predicting how the game and game script would unfold. In which we are not in agreement anyway. I guess I have a more statistically-driven approach and you a more perceptual approach; broader stats vs "they were eviscerated in the passing game" etc. Gamescript differences which imo wasn't going to result in a massive deviation from the mean in terms of RB fantasy points given up anyway. The strategy applied to the games vs Tampa, Buffalo and Minnesota for example would still have yielded two players with RB2 numbers in all of them, even though you felt they were winning through the air. The "smart" in using the strategy is trading away the risk of the starter of uncertain status being forced out of the game due to re-injury and instead bet on the whole backfield and settle with, theoretically, RB2 numbers for two of your players. And yes, I did state it depends on situation and other options. As I compared, Michel, Breida, Freeman, Howard and White all average less points than what "backfields vs NYG, divided up between two backs" do. It's risk-averse and low upside, absolutely. The upside was way higher starting DJ and one of those names obviously. But statistically, if the injury really turns out to be a problem, you end up one goose egg and one RB2. Starting the backfield; worst case is two RB2's. This is process-driven if anything.
  7. Kingsbury's Friday comments of that he would not have played if the game was played that day, that's alarming and set this week apart from last week imo. But yes, situation looked exactly the same as last week for those who missed that comment. Hemorrhaging pass yards or not, they were statistically still a worse rush defense than a pass defense. Daniel Jones looking competent or not, they were still a bottom-10 offense coming in and worse than Cardinals both in points and yards per game. Nothing suggesting it would be a lopsided game forcing Cardinals to abandon the run which you are suggesting. But yeah, it's all dependent on your situation. I'm quite risk-averse too. I know it feels uncomfortable rolling out two from the same backfield, but when it's backed up statistically I tend to use it. 23.7/2 half-PPR points is more than what RB2's in the likes of Michel, Breida, Freeman, Howard and White average per game, for example. Pending Gurley's health reports, a Gurley/Henderson stack this upcoming week vs Bengals (league-worst vs backfields) is another example where this strategy might be an idea. Especially with Brown not available just like a third back in Cardinals (Foster) was not available week 7.
  8. In hindsight of course not. But due to the unknowns surrounding DJ coming into the game, with Kingsbury saying Friday that he wouldn't have played if the game was that day, there were legitimate concerns about how big role he would have (even though the lopsided distribution it ended up being I don't think anyone foresaw). Starting both vs a bottom-barrel defense vs RB (averaging 23.7 half-ppr points per game to backfields) was definitely the safe and smart move going into the game. Eliminating the risk, setting up for, in theory, a respectable 23.7/2 points (RB2 numbers) for two of your starters. I don't have any shares of this backfield, but I have used this strategy before when there's been injury concerns with a starter. There's obviously situations in tough matchups where you need to shoot for upside, of course. But in general, "guaranteed" RB2 numbers for two starters definitely won't ruin your week and more often than not it's enough to put you in a position to win.
  9. Hilarious! I don't own any shares of the backfield so perhaps mostly because I don't think very highly (to put it kindly) of Matthew Berry, neither in terms of entertainment value or as a so called fantasy "expert". Ironically, this meltdown is probably the best he ever put out. But it's pretty damn entertaining, I give him that!
  10. Well, you typically need up towards 16-20 points in half-PPR to crack WR1 any given week, and he has put up that twice this year already. He was the WR17 week 1 with his 19.3 points and WR11 week 5 with 20.8. Now facing a clear pass-funnel defense in the Eagles, giving up the 4th most receiving yards (280 per game) and the 4th least rushing yards (73 per game) in the league. Cooper and both stud tackles Smith and Collins expected to play. DAL-PHI 3rd highest implied points total (49) this week. WR1 certainly possible, even (I’d say especially) with Cooper back.
  11. Haven’t monitored their every run but I think it’s safe to say McCoy as a borderline hall of famer has a way better feel for how to maneuver, take the right angles, set up blocks etc. In short, how to play running back. I’d say it’s that simple.
  12. God I love this guy. Rare talent, absolute stud. But humble about it and just goes about his business. Nothing I respect more than that combination. No cockiness or showing off. Simply jumps right back up and runs over to the huddle for the next play. Easily in the conversation of top three backs in the league in terms of pure running.
  13. To be fair, Pocic has missed the last four games already. Fluker injured his hamstring early vs Rams so Jamarco Jones played almost the whole game, and did well. So the only thing different than vs Rams is if LT Brown won’t go (both him and Fluker listed as Doubtful btw, not OUT yet). Apparently he’s had the bicep issue since week 3 but managed to toughen it out so far. So, sure, not good if LT Brown does not make it. But the o-line situation isn’t as dramatically changed compared to last week as the above quote suggests. Either way, if you have Carson he’s likely not lower than your RB2 in most cases which means there’s room for both with one in FLEX. 49ers defense is ranked 1st vs RBs in fantasy and their offense is firing on all cylinders. Not an optimal scenario for Malcolm Brown especially with talks about Henderson having a role. He’s definitely a start but I’m hesitant putting him above RB15.
  14. Jay Jay Get your a s s up and hurrah, uh! Jay train baby Nineteen baby He’s on the grind baby All the time baby Show us something
  15. They both have yards after the catch as a strength to their game but imo Deebo is better at it. Deebo is 4th best WR in the NFL with his 9.3 yards after catch per reception thus far. Pettis had 7.3 last year. They do it in different ways though. Deebo is the physical freight train running back type, punishing defenders along with great speed. Pettis is the fluid finesse guy making defenders look silly with jukes. Who's more likely to have a breakout fantasy day? I actually think they both have a good chance to come out greatly improved from their BYE tonight to surprise many. But really a crapshoot in terms of fantasy imo and most likely they will just cancel each other out in hanging that 20. Also, 49ers is a running team this year and Kittle should still be the focal point in the passing game. If anyone though? My hunch is Deebo. Very intrigued by what I have seen and the small signs Shanahan has shown starting to scheme him the ball in yac situations.