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About eg4190

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  1. The mortality numbers are deceptive. If one person has notable symptoms of COVID-19, there’s something like a 20% chance they’ll need to be hospitalized and a 1.5% chance they’ll die after receiving ICU care. Some of the remaining 18.5% of hospitalized patients will require as many as three weeks of ICU care. So for a solo patient the numbers look good in a vacuum. The problem is that when the first large cluster arrives at the hospital, they take up all of the available ICU beds and ventilators. When the second and third waves arrive over the next few weeks, those resources are still in use. You can’t unplug the ventilator of a patient who’s improving to give it to someone else. Very quickly the system is overwhelmed and doctors can’t give any patient adequate care, so the mortality rate goes way up. It may be as high as 10% in parts of Northern Italy and we already have patients dying in the ER in New York before a doctor can even see them. The mortality rate is only going to be 1.5% or under if we can slow down the rate of infection so that the patients don’t show up all at once. Otherwise we could lose millions more people. When we talk about NFL games being played in the fall, it’s just a form of denial because this thing hasn’t spread everywhere yet. When it does, it’ll become clear that we need to commit to a long-haul shutdown, and that means no crowded stadiums in September.
  2. Anyone think the NFL might go through with a normal season in front of empty crowds? This was discussed for things like NBA and NCAA games but the crisis exploded so quickly it was clear the players and coaches just couldn't travel around like that. What happens if the virus is basically under control by the fall, but the general public is too freaked out to gather in large groups? It might not be possible to sell out a football stadium in 2020, even if the numbers say it's safe. The owners wouldn't be happy with losing the ticket and concession sales, but it would be better than cancelling the full season.
  3. Niners Ravens Chiefs Packers I don’t think any of these road teams will spring the upset.
  4. I like the talent but I just don’t see any WR putting up consistent fantasy points in this offense. L-Jax can win in too many different ways and they’re never trailing in the second half. I think Brown will remain a much better best-ball asset than a redraft WR3 option.
  5. Passing hard on Kenyan Drake. He was putting up 7 points every week until he exploded in the fantasy playoffs. I can see him having a 2019-Damien Williams season. Last year’s playoff studs are often a risk to be overdrafted. Plus if DJ sticks around it’s possible he’s not done-done and it was just a lingering injury that needed time to heal.
  6. That Pats loss was the greatest football thing I’ve seen all season. This team is going nowhere in the postseason. They may not make it out of Wild Card weekend.
  7. AJG wasn’t injured this year, he was holding out. He just did it in a way that allowed him to collect a check every week and accrue a season towards free agency. He hasn’t really been especially injury prone throughout his career, and he played all 16 games in 2017. He’d be a great #2 for the Saints, and he’d probably be happy to play for a team that can win playoff games. Much less of a locker room headache than AB.
  8. I mean, there are actual fantasy football experts. People who are paid to analyze fantasy on a professional level aren't just pulling rankings out of a hat. They watch many hours of game film and have the time to dig deep into snap counts and target shares and beat gossip and things like that. The experts lay this information out for the rest of us, most of whom can't actually watch every snap of every game during a work week, and we're free to follow their conclusions or ignore them. But they don't have a crystal ball, and if any expert were ever 100% accurate, there would be no point in playing this game anymore. It would be like betting against Biff and his sports almanac. The experts got Boone wrong, but that was just an anomaly where you had an unproven back who'd seen very little NFL action, and was projected for a huge workload in a run-heavy offense. The process was valid, the results just weren't there. If the game had been played on Saturday afternoon, his dud wouldn't be perceived to have shifted fantasy outcomes. But because many thousands of people needed double-digit points from Boone in the Monday night game on Super Bowl week, Boone is perceived to have won/lost championships, and the experts are perceived to be bums.
  9. AB to Saints would pose a bunch of difficult questions. Brees hasn't really supported two fantasy-relevant WRs for years, but the Saints' real-life WR2 has been some replacement-level guy like Ginn/Snead/Smith ever since Brandin Cooks left. But then even assuming the MT-funnel nature of the offense was due to a lack of talent among the secondary pass-catchers, that means we have to knock MT down a fair amount, right? His elite every-week WR1 status has been volume-based, and there's no way AB wouldn't seriously cut into his targets. Kamara's stock already took a huge hit this year, but that was almost entirely due to touchdown regression -- with AB on board he becomes a much less interesting bounce-back candidate as it's doubtful he'd come close to his career average of 100 targets. I'll never own AB again after the stunts he pulled on the way out of Pittsburgh, but I just hate the way this character acts as a fantasy vortex on the talent around him whenever he changes teams.
  10. This argument demonstrates that the real value picks are guys who don’t score well in Week 15 & 16. We can’t predict in August who’s going to have a good game during the fantasy playoffs, so this data point is irrelevant. But last year’s playoff busts are going to have salty owners and that may let them slide a few spots.
  11. My winning ship lineup: QB: L-Jax (8th round) WR1: Diggs (3rd round) WR2: Scary Terry (waiver pickup after Week 1) WR3: Perriman (waiver pickup after Week 15) RB1: Carson (4th round) RB2: Conner (1st round) Flex: Mostert (waiver pickup after Week 12) K: Gould (waiver pickup after Week 15) DST: Vikings (waiver pickup after Week 14) Evans brought me all the way to the playoffs before getting injured. My drafted guys held up pretty well until the wheels fell off in the playoffs with both Carson and Conner getting injured early in Week 16, but it wound up not mattering.
  12. I was but a platinum peasant this morning, but as a result of last night’s Super Bowl win I was just upgraded to Diamond in Yahoo. I’m in for next year.
  13. First time winning the ship since 2016. I’m reminded of how lonely it is at the top. One thing that kind of sucks about fantasy is that at the beginning of the season, everyone is super active and texting funny memes on gamedays and smack talking in the office — but once people start to get mathematically eliminated and their season ends, they lose interest. Winning the fantasy Super Bowl never carries the same glory as you’d imagine, because by the time Week 16 rolls around, the fantasy season is over for all but two teams and nobody else cares.
  14. They missed Rodgers’ window by sticking with McCarthy so long. He’s just not the same player anymore.