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Everything posted by txrngr34

  1. Holy cow...full season ball at 18 and having only played in the DSL last year? That seems super-aggressive, even if he was held back a little to start. A slow start doesn't concern me too much, looking forward to how he adjusts/responds in the summer months.
  2. For starters, here's a 2019 in-season update at triple-A Memphis (he only had 17 games there last season): 20 G, 83 PA, .320/.386/.400 slash, 1 HR, 7 BB / 9 K Just for fun, I looked up Yadi's minor league numbers to compare vs Knizner's. There's plenty to be excited about concerning Knizner. Disclaimer: I am not suggesting he is, or will be, better than Yadi. Yadi is a future Hall of Famer - period. Yadier Molina: MiLB numbers only (baseball-reference.com) 301 Games 1165 PA .280/.337/.372 slash line 75 BB / 120K (6.4% BB / 10.3% K) 14 HR / 392 TB 294 Defensive Games Played at C / .989 FLD% / 45% (111/244) Caught Stealing Andrew Knizner: MiLB numbers (baseball-reference.com) includes 2019 YTD 262 Games 1072 PA .311/.374/.455 slash line 78 BB / 127 K (7.3% BB / 11.8% K) 26 HR / 435 TB 202 Defensive Games Played at C / .994 FLD% / 47% (31/66) Caught Stealing Obviously, numbers alone don't tell enough of a story. And we already know he's not the receiver Yadi was coming up. But with favorable reports on improving defense, an arm good enough to help control the running game, good rapport with his pitchers, and a bat that clearly has the potential to be good (at most positions) - I can't wait for him to get some time next season learning from Yadi day-to-day. And we all know that a lack of power numbers in the minors don't necessarily mean a guy can't find his power stroke in the majors - look at Lindor, or Yadi for that matter. As a real life Cubs fan, I only wish he played for another team.
  3. Think a dynasty auction would be $10+ for sure. For a keeper/redraft, slightly under given innings cap this year and next year. Just spitballing here.
  4. Good question. I can only think of Strasburg, right about a decade ago.
  5. I know everybody loves Wander - myself included - but #2 is amazing to me. For comparison, the next-ranked prospect that has not played above Rookie-level ball is 66 spots down in Ronny Mauricio, closely followed by guys like Matt Liberatore, Cole Winn, and Jarred Kelenic. And between #2 and #68 is Joey Bart and Alec Bohm as the only other guys without full-season experience - but, obviously, these two guys were highly-regarded college bats that played a full college season slate. I realize I'm probably in the minority but I still think it's nuts to rank a 17-year old without full-season experience in the top-25. If he finishes his first full-season league this year at 18 with similar blistering numbers, I'm all for him being ranked top-5, probably #1. Trevor Larnach at #99 is nice to see, at least he's in the top-100. I'm surprised to see Tyler Stephenson crack the top-100. For a kid who just did OK in high-A and was drafted as a HS catcher, it seems a bit early to rank this high with a questionable hit tool and still-lacking, in-game power regardless of the good plate approach. Seems he got a significant positional bump here. I remember him being reputed to be a strong defender but only gets a 50 FV-grade for Fielding and he didn't throw guys out at a rate one expects a 70-grade arm to catch would-be base stealers.
  6. Good stuff there. The lack of consensus on his scouting grades is scary. For example, fangraphs has him with a FV 40 Hit and FV 55 Power while MLBpipeline has those at 50 and 40 respectively - of course after last year's showing I'd expect those to change somewhat. I'm not sure who has him with four 55-grade tools but, if so, wow that seems mighty generous. The lack of pedigree and consistency, coupled with his suspect defense just doesn't scream top-100 to me, that's all. Is he worth a gamble? Sure - depending on your situation. My situations don't warrant it though. I think if you picked him up prior to 2018 for nothing, that's a good investment - but I did that in 1 league and as soon as he started getting some hype I used him as piece to push a trade through. Somebody asked my thoughts on him, so I shared. I'm not trying to bang on the kid.
  7. Personally, I have a really hard time buying into his power given his mediocre hit tool and penchant for swinging and missing. I feel like his absolute ceiling is Dan Uggla - and even that might be a stretch. More realistically, for fantasy purposes, I see him as useful as Hechavarria but with some power potential - but not defensively, therefore making it unlikely he has as long a career. But hey, the kid's got a cool name. Might sound harsh for a kid that's gotten a lot of love lately, but a moderate ceiling with low floor and high risk is not a fantasy gamble I plan to make.
  8. I'm a big Brujan fan. I've seen him ranked a few other places, and everything I've read on him indicates he should be in the 75-125 range. I can't wait to see what he does in the upper minors. I'm not sure any IFA that hasn't played full-season ball should be ranked #13, or anywhere in the top-25 for that matter. They're so far away when they sign and so much can happen between short-season leagues and full-season leagues. Track record-wise, IFAs are so highly volatile to project until they reach full-season ball. I love Wander Franco - but I'd feel more comfortable seeing him in the 26-50 range. On that note, I think Robinson's omission is justifiable. I know, he tore up rookie ball. But the ~30% K rate is still enough of a red flag that I'm good with him missing the top-100. He very well could be that rare talent that can overcome that at the major league level - but no matter how we slice it, it's still a very small sample size in the grand scheme of things. Certainly enough to get excited, though. The big miss, for me, is Trevor Larnach. I get it, he doesn't have plus tools across the board but he's got a high floor with 4 above-average tools. He's been widely praised for having an advanced approach, and being a college bat, has a good shot of advancing quickly - something that feels weird saying about a Twins prospect.
  9. Disclaimer: I haven't seen him. Great results across brief stints in Rk, low-A, and A ball after getting drafted. But he was pitching roughly on-level, age-wise by the time he reached a full-season league. Definitely a guy to watch in 2019 - the full season in pro ball will help tell a better story, especially if they decide to promote him to high-A at some point during the season. Given his lack of college innings, I wonder if that'll keep him in A ball all season - unless, of course, he just stymies everyone and forces the next challenge. Having success in cold weather bodes well for him but his lack of a refined repertoire makes him an easy relief risk with the FB as his only real out pitch right now. If he can develop the cutter to give him a fourth pitch, he might be able to mix them all enough to keep guys off-balance and stick in the rotation. I'm not one to get too excited over someone dominating levels that he should, to be considered a legit prospect. But his first full season - 2019 - combined with similar results will definitely have my attention going into 2020.
  10. To each his own, no doubt. The only guys I'd make an argument for ahead of Nunez are Luciano and Alcantara, but I believe both are significantly higher ranked than Nunez. I like Marte, too, but he's only 7 months younger than Nunez and hasn't played any competitive ball other than against other academies. I like scouting reports and projection as much as the next guy - but I'll still take the kid that actually crushed in competitive ball at league-average age and should make his stateside debut soon over the 7-month-younger kid who may not even play US rookie ball until 2020. If the Cards send Nunez back to the DSL, that'll be an indicator something's not right with him. If the Mariners send Marte stateside after (or maybe even instead of) DSL ball in 2019, that'll be an indicator that the kid's more special than I thought. Either way, too early for me to hang my hat on either. But given Nunez's lack of publicity/hype, eye-popping DSL numbers, and relatively on-track progression towards stateside ball - I'm drafting Nunez ahead of Marte, Luciano, or Alcantara. Of course, this could easily change come July when we know more about where these kids will play and how well. I'm making my case for today, though.
  11. Malcom Nunez, 3B, STL. Kid's a beast. Was a touch old for the DSL (typical high-ranked J2 signees closer to 16-years old) but played a full slate in his signing year which actually puts him on pace with typical 16-year-old J2 signees who don't play until the following year in DSL/VSL leagues. You can look up his stats but this wouldn't be a tout without quoting a few, all from baseball-reference.com. In 199 PAs, Nunez walked AND struck out about 15% of the time - good-to-great on both fronts. He also hit 13 homers - mind you, double-digit homers in foreign summer leagues are somewhat rare. I know, 'but his bat-to-ball skills are probably suspect', well he hit .415 with 127 total bases. He signed with a reputation for an advanced plate approach and proved it all summer long. He's got the arm to stick at third but glovework unknown. Here's one of the few, good write-ups I've found on him: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2018/7/22/17585228/system-sundays-a-quick-look-at-malcom-nunez I tried to trade up to nab this kid but as he was dropping, I thought I might get him - he got picked 2 spots ahead of me. Don't be me - he should be your #1 IFA target.
  12. Nice. I didn't even realize he didn't have his own thread. I've rostered him for over 2 years in one of my leagues. My anecdotal evidence for why I think he's a top-150, maybe top-100, prospect is that he seems to have a plus hit tool for a catcher (base hits + great plate discipline) with power potential (25 homers in just under 1000 minor-league ABs). I also recall reading multiple articles indicating he's an average to above-average defender; his caught-stealing rate has declined as he advances, indicating his arm may be capable but he has to make up for it through pop time and/or footwork. His bat is as consistent as prospect catchers get - way more consistent than Carson Kelly. But Kelly is the better defender by most accounts. Offensively, I feel like he's the realization of what Keibert Ruiz could do with a touch less power. But I'd rather bet that Knizner hits more consistently.
  13. I'd guess late-June to early-July, assuming he's still on a tear. The A's are highly cost-conscious, so I think they'd wait until the super-two cutoff has clearly passed. They're not going to want to pay for 4 years of arbitration if he's ready in middle of another ho-hum, typical-A's season. Now, if they somehow manage to be the hottest team in baseball and Beane's feeling like they're just a starter away from solidifying a shot at the postseason, I wouldn't put it past them to bring him up in May. It just seems highly unlikely that they'll be in that position AND willing to bring him up before the super-two cutoff. Another scenario could be that they call him up this September to give him some exposure and give him a chance to acclimate to the MLB environment, then push his 2019 debut back into late-July/early-August to still save themselves that extra year of arbitration. Ultimately, it all depends on how highly the front office values him as building block versus a trade chip. We would assume they'd see him as a building block but nothing the A's do surprise me. Remember Beane trading away then-elite prospect Addison Russell and decent-prospect Billy McKinney for rentals in 2014?
  14. Luzardo was actually projected to be a first-rounder by scouts until the injury, so he was a known commodity - just maybe not to the general fantasy community since he didn't make a pro pitch before TJS like Paddack did. Not quite an apples to apples comparisons.
  15. Great deal. Remember when Rougned Odor was gonna become a superstar? I'm not saying Albies falls flat completely - just that I'd take the established stud over a hot name that wasn't known for power and an aging closer.
  16. Keuchel is also inconsistent and prone to getting lit up, repped by Boras so likely to be elsewhere next season. Lance is not a pillar of health. Morton - while pitching like an ace mostly - COULD, not will, fall apart. It may be the best staff but it's not infallible either. And Kopech still needs to consistently locate while refining his command of pitches that don't hit triple digits. I think Whitley, by far, is the better fantasy investment.
  17. I'd drop Luplow for Knizner. Luplow has the least trade value of your 10. I've got a ton of prospect ideas but the MiLB forum is a better resource to find other gems not owned already in your league. I'm not a believer, or fan, of trading away tier-1 talent for quality depth. If you can get Arenado/Soto for Harper/JBJ (or something similar) then that would be a win - you get another established tier-1 talent plus a potential tier-1 talent. Moving a tier-2 or tier-3 talent for depth isn't a bad idea if your talent pool is that thin. Generally speaking, though, mining for high-upside prospect talent is better long-term than acquiring fringe MLB talent. I can't see Acuna bringing a top-15 talent but if you can get the right kind of top-30/40 talent, seems like the right move.
  18. Absolutely consider moving Harper for a good deal. Deal 1, don't do it - Ozuna is fluky and taunted us for years before finally breaking out last year, then what's he done this season? Deal 2, considerable - but you already have strong pitching and adding an aging and increasingly inconsistent Carrasco is not as valuable as it was 2 years ago; Hays and Bauers aren't long term solutions. I don't believe Acuna to be the fantasy savior many believe him to be, so I would deal him for an established young stud in a heartbeat; Arenado, Machado, Bryant, etc. if you can finds ways to swing a deal for those guys by dangling Acuna + something decent but not irreplaceable. As for your season's direction, given the league size and that you're already struggling, it seems like a rebuild/retool is in order. You didn't give enough for me to make a good recommendation but I can tell you your starting pitching is your strength with your outfield a close secondary strength (is that right, yall play 1 CF and 4 OF?). You can usually find stronger outfield options via ww/fa than infielders and you already know infield is your weakest area. Segura is underrated, fantasy-wise, unless someone offers a younger version of him, expect to keep him. The rest of your infield is expendable. I'd also make any of your bottom 7 prospects available to swing deals for young (or young-ish) stars. Trammell and Lewis are great long-term prospects to keep. And while I think trading Acuna for high value makes a lot of sense, if you can't get a stud player then it's not worth the risk of trading him for an aging star. I'd be really interested to know what type of prospect talent is available. At catcher, look for Danny Jansen or Andrew Knizner. Jansen will play soon, Knizner is the slightly higher upside play for later.
  19. I think their ROS performance will be relatively similar, so if it's roto, I'd stand pat since acquiring KB will likely take a little something extra to go with Goldy. If H2H, and consistency is of value to you, I would make the play for KB.
  20. I appreciate the background info given but like @Jrick45 alluded, there's still a lot of pertinent info missing for the narrow answers you want. Regarding the two prospects you mentioned, Paddack could actually be up next season - he's absolutely demolishing high-A hitters right now and probably should've been promoted to double-A a couple weeks ago. Robert could be a future stud but I don't see him as more of a standout outfielder than I do Paddack as a standout starter. If I only had one pick between the two and didn't have a glaring need at either pitcher or hitter - I would definitely lean Paddack.
  21. Absolutely - Nola/Realmuto over Shaw/5th any day. Shaw's discounted keeper price shouldn't weigh heavily here, if that causes you hesitation. And Nola likely guarantees you the best rotation in your league. Then you get your catcher upgrade. Don't think twice.
  22. Question: Are you playing to win now (this season)? Your Answer = Your Answer Obviously, other factors can play into it but assuming Thor would actually improve your staff and you don't already have a Sale-Scherzer-Kershaw type of rotation, he can help you win now. I don't think anyone believes Tatis Jr will help a fantasy team to a championship this season.
  23. Paxton. While health has previously been an issue for him, he's proved to be a stud when healthy. He looks healthy now and should be the better short- and long-term play. Bauer's always had "stuff" but harnessing it and getting consistent results has always been his challenge. I think there's higher risk of Bauer going erratic than Paxton's performance declining.
  24. No - period. Plus, Manny may not be the SS for his next team. Hold on to Manny.
  25. I realize you aren't asking for my opinion, specifically, but I have a thought on Dup - plus, the kid went to HS in my area so I'm definitely rooting for him in real life. Crazy talent, but the durability concerns are very real. Yes, he's been more durable over the last year - but he's hurt again now. If I had to bet his long-term outlook as either a starter or reliever, I'd bet reliever due to his frame/durability. I view him as a high-end trade chip. In the end, I hope he becomes a long-term frontline starter but I just don't see it. Besides, a four-pitch mix isn't a guarantee to start anyway. As for the discussions surrounding platforms, Fantrax is easily the most comprehensive prospect database. And as someone might have mentioned earlier, their player-add-request process is very easy and timely for the rare times a signed prospect isn't in their player database. The platform itself is also very dynasty-friendly with full roster carryovers, offseason (and even in-season) draft options, dedicated minors rosters, etc. Yahoo's player database is vastly improved now than it was a couple years ago but it's dynasty functionality is still a platform issue. I haven't played on CBS in about a decade, so I have zero thoughts on it now. ESPN, as everyone already knows, is clearly not a go-to platform for dynasty leagues - and probably won't be for some time, especially if they start deviating from their normal MO in middle of the fantasy season to bulk-add prospects in a manner that they never did before. At the very least, they should announce plans for such player adds outside of the standard debut add.