handyandy86

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handyandy86 last won the day on May 23 2018

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  1. This. It was one game, people are so reactionary. The whole SF offense was terrible last week. I'm expecting closer to his role from Weeks 1 & 2 going forward, assuming the SF offense as a whole figures out what went wrong last week.
  2. Murphy makes more sense as an every day DH to me. Gives room on the IF for McMahon or Hampson or Rodgers. Kemp could occasionally DH or be a 4th/5th OF, but it doesn't seem like he has much gas left in the tank. That said, this would be a "logical" way to do it, which is likely not the "Rockies" way of doing it.
  3. The thing that drives me crazy, though, is how the Rays trading for a player suddenly makes them such a much better prospect. Before this trade most lists had Arozarena around #15-20 in the Cards' system, and most at 40 or 45 FV. The Rays made a pretty poor trade, and now all the TB apologists have come out of the woodwork on Twitter to talk up Arozarena like he has some immense upside. Saw people suggesting he "could be good enough to rate 50 FV". Give me a break, you thought he was a nobody yesterday. The Rays wanting him doesn't suddenly make him some kind of top prospect. Sure, Arozarena could turn out to be a good MLBer. But his profile screams 4th OF - good contact skills (not great though), limited power, somewhat speedy, but not going to be a big time base stealer either. Rays must like what they see, but that doesn't mean he's suddenly better. The other suggestion I've seen several times from different sources is that if the Rays are trading away Liberatore, they must have reasons they don't like him. Sell high before other scouts find his flaws, type of logic. If that's the case then the Rays' scouting department failed big time by investing a 1st round pick in him just a year and a half ago. His velocity and curveball have shown to be everything they should be, so if there's something else there the Rays don't like, they shouldn't have drafted him in the first place. Just seems like another off the wall guess on why the Rays made a trade that nobody can understand when examined logically. This is your classic fantasy trade offer of "here's some of my bench players and some lint from my pocket for one of your good players," and the Rays were the one sucker that accepted. As someone else pointed out, I don't see a reason they couldn't have done a similar trade in-season if they felt they needed to add depth. They have plenty of OF depth, and if anything, they could have probably gotten J-Mart on his own (or another flawed, no-defense, right handed bat) for a much lesser prospect than Liberatore.
  4. His power is the real deal. Does he even have that long of an injury history? I thought a lot of his playing time issues in the past were due to very poor defense and inconsistent hitting. Not to say he's never been hurt, but 2015 was essentially his rookie year. 2016 his playing time was limited due to performance and the Cubs ascending into a legit contender. Traded to KC for 2017 when he did have some nagging injuries, but again was largely limited by poor play. 2018 missed most of the year with a toe fracture (not exactly an "injury prone" kind of injury). I think now that he's fully broken out, every day DH, with no worries about losing PT if he slumps, there's not turning back. The beast has been unleashed.
  5. This is kind of splitting hairs, but he had 22 SB in 499 PA in 2017, 32 SB in 595 PA in 2018, and 15 SB in 244 PA before his call-up in 2019. If you look at pace of SB per 600 PA, it's works out to about a 26 SB pace in 2017, the 32 in 2018, and 37 SB pace in 2019. So you can see a clear progression in his base stealing getting stronger every year, and that's all while steadily moving up levels in MiLB and being consistently young for every level he played in. He's also only graded out as having 45/50 Speed on the standard scouting 80 scale, so it isn't like he's got tons of raw speed but doesn't know how to steal. Rather he shows a very advanced approach to stealing and knowing when to go. As @En Votto Veritas pointed out, Steamer has him projected at 24 SB, and they are usually very conservative, so I feel like that's a fairly safe number. Of course anything could happen, but Steamer has done their research and arrived at that number. Also I can say from watching almost every Jays game that Bo didn't have a ton of opportunities to steal bases in his taste of MLB because all he did was mash the ball! Pretty hard to steal bases when you're consistently hitting doubles and singers. Over the ups and downs of a full year, I think the HR rate and doubles level off, but that will also lead to more opportunities to steal.
  6. With questions about the juice level of the ball, he's exactly the kind of bargain / underrated power bat I want. 18.5 degree LA and solid average HR distance suggests he doesn't necessarily need a juiced ball to hit dongs. If the ball becomes more pitcher-friendly then HRs will come at more of a premium, and Yaz could really end up being a bargain. The kind of hitter I'm leery of is one that has a lower LA and lower percentile average HR distance. Just take LeMahieu for example. Jumped from a career high of 15 HR (and that was hitting at Coors!) to 26 HR in 2019 with the super-juiced ball. Look under the hood and he had only a 6.7 degree LA, and an average HR distance of 386 feet, which is in the range of bottom-15 in MLB (depending how many minimum batted ball events you filter by). You take some of the juice out of the ball and a lot of his HRs could evaporate. (Not to get too far off track, but another name that ranked near the bottom of MLB in average HR distance in 2019 was Alex Bregman. If you combine a less hitter-friendly ball with not having every pitch fed to you illegally, he could be in for a good bit of regression).
  7. That's a valid point, but I think a big part of that is the roster construction of the Giants teams of the last decade+. Oracle is a poor HR park for sure, which doesn't help. But the organization as a whole seems to very much be focused on adding "well rounded" or line-drive hitters, and has completely ignored the fly-ball revolution that's taken place. Buster Posey, Longoria, Crawford, Belt, etc have been some of the most tenured bats over that time span, and none of those guys are power hitters by any stretch of the imagination. I'd be more alarmed if you saw power hitters going to SF and struggling heavily, but we don't really have that to compare. I just sorted by HR for all Giants hitting stats in the last 10 seasons, and Yastrzemski is 18th on the list already in only 411 PA! That's combined HRs over 10 years, not single seasons. Brandon Crawford is 4th on the list with 98 HR in 4,718 PA, just for reference. With 21 HR in only 411 PA, if Yaz leads off and plays the whole season healthy, I'd have to think 25 HR in 650+ PA is a pretty reasonable target. And 30 is what I was implying as more of a ceiling. Also FWIW, right field line is the shortest HR ball at Oracle at 340 feet, which helps it play a little more friendly for Yastrzemski's lefty swing.
  8. That's also not even touching on the fact that Rendon is now going to be hitting directly behind the best hitter on the planet, with Ohtani hitting cleanup behind him. If there was ever a situation for him to repeat his career year stats, this is pretty much it.
  9. Anyone trying to say Rendon is not a top 100 or top 50 player for 2020 has zero credibility. Just take a glance at his Statcast if you don't think he's an elite hitter. The whole thing is lit up bright red. Near the top of the league in Hard Hit%, EV, xBA, xOBA, pretty much everything. The Player Comparison feature, which compares Rendon's batted ball and hitting profile against the rest of the league, shows the two closest matches to him are Bellinger and Betts. If you think a hitter in the upper percentile of every batted ball metric, elite K/BB rate, and who's profile is most comparable to 2 fantasy 1st round picks, is going to be some kind of bust "because he got paid", you're delusional. Or you just need to really brush up on your research methods.
  10. This is probably a name that isn't going to have much interest for standard 10 or 12 team mixed leagues, but in deeper leagues I think he's someone worth talking about. I just recently made a deal for him in my dynasty league, and was a little surprised at the amount of negative feedback I got on it. It seems like the vast majority of people don't believe in what Yaz did in 2019. Even among fantasy 'experts' there seems like a wide range of expectations for him in 2020, with some ranking him closer to 200th overall, and others closer to 400th overall. My feeling after doing research on Yastrzemski is that 2019 was not a fluke. The easy thing to do is look at someone that spent 5 years / until their age 28 season in the minors, and then suddenly broke out, as something that won't repeat itself. But digging deeper I think there is more here than just luck. First off, there is evidence that Yaz made a swing change during the off-season prior to 2019. Unfortunately there is no Statcast or launch angle data for MiLB, but in his lengthy minors career, he had never hit more than 15 HR in a calendar year. Then suddenly in 2019, Yaz amassed 33 HR total between AAA and MLB. Part of that HR increase I'm sure you can chalk up to the juiced ball, but again, I think there's more to it than that. This article below didn't go into much detail, but speaks about working out with former Vanderbilt teammates in the off-season before 2019, with the main purpose being to re-tool his swing to barrel up the ball better, and keep his bat in the zone longer. He makes some adjustments, adds some new drills to his routine, and then is suddenly raking: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/mike-yastrzemski-has-seen-power-surge-first-season-giants And while we don't have any previous data to compare to, Statcast data from 2019 shows the profile of a very good hitter. The first thing that jumps off the page for me is his 18.5 degree Launch Angle. There's no definitive data on what the "ideal" LA is, but however you slice it, 18.5 degrees is very close to optimal for hitting the ball in the air, and expected hit results. Based on his complete lack of HR's previous to 2019, and knowing his 2019 LA was 18.5 degrees, I would expect that part of his swing change was to add more loft to his swing. Statcast also shows that he was just hitting the ball hard, and getting the barrel on the ball often. 42.9% Hard hit rate puts him in roughly the upper 75% of qualified batters. His 11.2% Barrel rate was almost double the league average of 6.3%. His Statcast expected slugging percentage (xSLG) was .510 compared to his actual SLG of .518 - the two numbers being almost identical continues to show that the outcomes Yaz saw directly aligned with his batted ball profile. To further dispel the idea that his power surge was mostly due to the juiced ball, his average HR distance was 406 feet. While not necessarily elite, that's in the top 100 of MLB hitters, and identical to the average HR distance of players like Nolan Arenado, Moncada, Schwarber, and Josh Donaldson, just to name a few. This isn't a guy that was getting lucky hitting chip shots down the line - he was hitting the ball on average just as far as some of the most respected power bats in the game. It's still very early for 2020 obviously, but the early projection is that he will be hitting lead-off for the Giants, which we all know brings a nice increase in AB's and run scoring opportunities. The lineup behind him is hopefully just good enough to provide some production, but the team is also shallow enough to easily provide him full-time AB's. Not many leagues go by individual OF positions, but for those that do, he's already qualified at LF and RF, and played a handful of games in 2019 in CF, with Steve Duggar slated to start there in 2020. Yaz has above-average sprint speed and while he's not an amazing defender, he will hopefully see enough time in CF to qualify there in 2020 as well, giving full LF/CF/RF eligibility. I don't really like making projections, but I think the current Steamer projection of a .243 AVG with 19 HR, 71 R, 64 RBI is very light. I would expect more like a .260 AVG with 25 HR, and the possibility he goes over 30 HR (especially dependent on the level of juiced ball used in 2020). Hitting lead-off even for a bad team, with a .330ish OBP, I'd expect at least 85 R, with the possibility for more. R and RBI numbers will be heavily dependent on where he hits in the lineup, but based on the garbage SF has at the back half of their batting order, I can't see Yaz anywhere outside the 3 batting spots. Hitting 2nd or 3rd would of course give more opportunity for RBI, while lead-off more opportunity for R. Anyone else feel confident in Yaz going into 2020?
  11. This may be an unpopular take, but I think Hudson is being massively overrated by the baseball community since his playoff run with the Nats. I'm a Jays fan and watched him tons earlier in the year before he got traded, and he was just "meh". High walk rate (4.31 BB/9), inconsistent control, non-elite K-rate, FIP of 4.19 that looked every bit deserved. And all of this matched what he had been for several years prior - just a high variance middle reliever that struggles to throw strikes. Then he gets traded at the deadline to the Nats, somehow walked almost nobody (despite poor walk rates in his whole career), Doolittle got hurt, he was the hot hand, and the rest is history. I'm not saying he's trash, but I think with a full ST and new season, unless Hudson had some kind of awakening in Washington, you're looking at an average RP who will go back to being average. Doolittle has the 'stuff' and the track record of success that would suggest he can be the man there. Health is the only concern with him.
  12. I agree with that assessment, I'd take Smith's upside over Ramos or Perez any day if given the choice. Will Smith seems to be a guy that fluctuates a ton depending on whose rankings you're looking at, and I feel like there will be an owner or two in every draft that will take him a lot earlier than consensus. Seems like a guy that could gain a lot of hype as the off-season progresses. He is one of the few catchers that have the upside to end up as top-3 at the position this year. But that's not to say there isn't also significant risk - I don't fully trust the Dodgers and how they handle lineup decisions. They have so much talent and such high expectations that they won't over-play any player. You also have Keibert Ruiz starting the year off in AAA presumably, who could get called up at some point and get some play (I don't think he would take over, but they aren't going to call him up to sit on the bench).
  13. Interesting article, but I also don't see any kind of corresponding velocity or spin increase to go along with his mechanical changes. You would think if the reason for optimism is a mechanical change in his delivery, that there would be some tangible change in either velocity, or movement, or something. However he does throw hard to begin with, so the potential is definitely there to improve.
  14. Very possible, and will probably be a very volatile situation all year, as it has been historically for the Rockies. On the other hand, they're a pretty poorly run organization and will likely be a non-contender again in the NL West (especially if Arenado actually gets traded). Whoever is the closer will likely have quite a bit more leash than say Mark Melancon, who is playing on a contender with a deep bullpen. When expectations are high the manager won't sit around to wait and see if a closer will turn it around, especially when there are lots of other good options.
  15. Agreed, RR is a bit out to lunch on their Jays lineup right now. They are trying to say since McGuire is a lefty that he would be the strong side of a platoon with the right handed hitting Jansen. But I highly doubt that's how this shakes out. McGuire has never been thought of as a good hitting prospect, and Jansen I'm thinking will take a step forward this year after getting his feet wet in MLB in 2019. RR also has Grichuk starting in CF, Derek Fisher starting in RF, and Teoscar Hernandez starting at DH. That to me seems very unlikely - Grichuk played primarily in RF, and is not a good defensive CF, so that is where I seem him in 2020 as well. Teoscar and Fisher could form a L/R platoon in CF, slash play-the-hot-hand, with the other being the 4th OF or occasional DH. And RR also has Rowdy Tellez back in AAA, whereas I think he will have the inside track for main DH and backup 1B, as long as his hitting can take a bit of a step forward.