Yup. Fantasy football is a random game of pure chance and luck, nothing more. We love football and competition so we want FF to be a game in which effort, skill, knowledge, etc is rewarded with victory but it really is nothing more than a senseless crapshoot.
Last year I traded Mahomes mid-season for a haul of players that stacked my already strong lineup. I then had Brees at QB, 3 RB1’s, 3 of the top 5 WRs, a stud TE, and studs on my bench. It was by far the best team I ever had in my 20 years of playing. It honestly seemed like an unbeatable team. Sure enough, Brees inexplicably craps the bed in a cake matchup, Hunt gets suspended, Conner got hurt or something, etc. Just everything went wrong and I lost in round one of the playoffs to a team that wasn’t half as good as mine. It became clear to me then that FF is a joke and an absolute waste of time.
Still, I played again this year, made a couple good offseason trades (dynasty), and actually improved what was already an incredibly stacked team from last year. Our commissioner does a season preview every year and ranks all 12 teams, etc. He described my team as “unbeatable”, with top studs at every position and studs on the bench. It legitimately looked like a team that could go undefeated. You’ll never guess what happened....didn’t even make the playoffs this time. Early season injuries, inexplicable let downs, great matchups senselessly backfiring, etc. Easily the most unenjoyable fantasy season ever. Meanwhile, teams that looked like a joke preseason are still playing. And yes, I’m aware and active on the waiver wire, trading, etc all season long. I’m probably the most active owner in the league which makes it all the more frustrating. The last two seasons have made it beyond clear that winning and losing in FF has zero to do with who you draft, who you trade for, who you pick up, or anything like that. Matchups are meaningless, projections are meaningless, research is meaningless. Winning and losing at FF comes down to sheer luck and randomness, nothing more.