MrCantaloupe

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  1. Sshhh 🤫 He's got a sweet nimeous. Last year's Rock Ya-Sin, or Montez Sweat, or maybe Greedy W. This year's Laviska Shenault. Good guys to reach for. Keep an eye out for Quintez Cephus and Yetur Gross-Matos. Big time sleepers in leagues where actual production counts.
  2. So someone asks Veach a question about the running back snaps (or something of that nature) and he responds saying he "thinks" it's going to be a "shared load", and we're making predictions with this? Why on Earth would Veach refer to this as anything but a competition? This isn't a Thunder & Lighting type situation where each player brings something different to the game. They are not "complementary players". That's just coach speak. Having said that, only 5 running backs played more than 70% of the team's snaps in 2019, so it's a near certainty that both guys see the field. CEH doesn't need to be a "workhorse" to justify an early round draft selection. A bunch of RB1s finished the year with low snap totals: Aaron Jones - 663 Austin Ekeler - 599 Derrick Henry - 589 Dalvin Cook - 604 Alvin Kamara - 626 Mark Ingram - 504 I would consider his floor to be James White (RB18, 493 snaps, ~200 points), but I think there's a reasonable hope for an Ekeler type season (RB4, 599 snaps, ~300 points) and a pipe-dream hope for weekly upside nearing that of CMC (RB1, 1056 snaps, ~450 points), especially later in the year or if injuries strike. Nothing wrong with investing an early round pick if you have the appetite for risk.
  3. Where did you find the 8% from the slot statistic? I've been looking for information like that.
  4. This guy is facinating. The Steelers had a 1st round grade on him coming out of Toledo when they drafted him #66 overall. As a rookie, he led all NFL wide receivers in separation yards (2.39) and finished the year as the #39 wide receiver in PPR (163.1 points) - all while playing less than two thirds of the available snaps on a Steelers team that passed for only 186 yards and 1.1 TDs per game. The only receiver to outscore him in PPR leagues while playing fewer snaps was Tyreek Hill. Now Big Ben is back. In 71 games completed by Ben over the last 6 years, he's averaged 40 throws and 310 yards per game. Following his week 2 injury in 2019, the Steelers attempted only 30 throws per game. Conservatively, let's say Ben regresses from his usual 40 throws to the league average of 35 and Diontae Johnson's snaps remain the same. One could draw the conclusion that this increase in throws (16.7%) leaves Diontae Johnson with a potential floor of about 190 points (barring injury, yada yada). If Ben finds a way to chuck the ball 40x per game and Diontae Johnson increases his snap share to match the average of the 38 receivers who finished ahead of him in 2019 (79.5%), we may have ourselves a top 10 WR (~263.5 points). There are so many other factors to consider, but I'm not gonna overthink this one and miss out on the upside. Giddy up.
  5. That's all fair too. At the end of the day, stats don't tell the whole story. The film shows me everything I need to know. Just wanted to be sure people aren't thinking they're getting a 4.5 yards per carry guy in an explosive offensive when drafting Damien Williams. That's not who he is, despite last years stats saying otherwise.
  6. 🤦‍♂️ Damian Williams is a 28 year old RB who has trouble consistently pushing the ball to the second level and can't break big plays on his own. Over 85 career regular season games, he has only 7 rushes for more than 20 yards. He's added 2 more in 6 playoff games. Go watch the runs I referred to: 84 yard run vs. Chargers 91 yard run vs. Vikings These 2 runs accounted for more than 35% of his 2019 total, and increased his career total by nearly 17%. Without these runs, he averaged only 2.96 yards per carry. This isn't cherry picking, it's presenting his rushing production with proper context. To be fair, here is his 38 yard TD run in the Super Bowl: 38 yard run vs. 49ers Two defenders run into each other, the safety takes a poor angle, DW goes around the edge virtually untouched. Take that run away and DW finishes the playoffs rushing 45 times for 158 yards (3.5 yards per carry). The Chiefs offensive line was top 10 in not allowing rushes to be stuffed at the line of scrimmage, but the team was 4th worst in big plays gained on the ground. Guess who's fault that is...
  7. Never said anything about using a 2nd round pick on CEH - that was you. Don't know if he'll be on any of my teams this year at that price, but I understand people chasing the upside. Regarding DW - He averaged only 2.96 yards per carry last year if you take away 2 fluke runs totaling 175 yards (the first, a straight up the middle virtually untouched breakaway, and the other a sideline breakaway after the Chargers thought the play was over). Take those 2 plays away and he scores 10+ points only 4 times (36.4% of his games) and 20+ points only 1 time (Week 9: 20.8 points on 24 touches), and that's in PPR. This CEH "insurance" isn't worth the premium of a 6th or 7th round pick.
  8. In round 6 or 7? Absolutely not. If people actually buy into this logic and waste a good pick on DW, CEH will not be on many Championship squads this year.
  9. The hate may be going too far. Problem is, in Allen's last 13 games with Phillip Rivers (~550 attempts and 4,500 yards) he produced a line of 75 catches, 795 yards, and 3 TDs. Now he's losing Phil and gaining Tyrod Taylor (~450 attempts and 3,250 yards). I love Keenan Allen for what he's done for me in the past, but I'm terrified of the current situation. Anthony Lynn is a running backs coach by trade. He coached Tyrod Taylor as an assistant head coach in Buffalo and brought Taylor to LA to bridge the gap to Justin Herbert, and hopefully keep him off the HC hot seat. They are simply going to run the ball like crazy and hope their defense keeps them in games. Not good. Moreover, I am not impressed with Herbert. Regardless of how well Keenan Allen starts the year, the cloud of the inevitable Justin Herbert takeover will be looming and could harm Allen's fantasy trade value. This feels a lot like the JuJu situation last year and I want no part of it. Maybe he has a safe floor, but what's the upside here? 80 catches? 950 yards? Maybe a game or two over 100 yards and a few unpredictable TDs scattered across the year? No thank you. That's not winning me anything. I'm skeptical of Parker for different reasons, but at least his upside intrigues me. If he starts the year well, the fantasy community will lose their concerns about him being a one-season wonder and his trade value will likely increase. Moreover, he is attached to a rookie QB that I and many other football fans are excited about. I can work with that. Still, they remain very close in my rankings.
  10. TIER 1 1. Michael Thomas TIER 2 2. Tyreek Hill 3. DeAndre Hopkins 4. Davante Adams TIER 3 5. Julio Jones 6. Kenny Golladay 7. Chris Godwin TIER 4 8. Mike Evans 9. Allen Robinson 10. Amari Cooper 11. Calvin Ridley 12. A.J. Brown 13. Odell Beckham Jr. 14. D.J. Moore 15. Courtland Sutton 16. D.K. Metcalf 17. Adam Thielen 18. DeVante Parker 19. JuJu Smith-Schuster 20. Cooper Kupp 21. Robert Woods 22. Stefon Diggs 23. Tyler Lockett TIER 5 24. T.Y. Hilton 25. Keenan Allen 26. D.J. Chark 27. Terry McLaurin 28. Deebo Samuel 29. Jarvis Landry 30. A.J. Green TIER 6 31+. Everyone Else. Time to look for upside. My targets in the later rounds (in no particular order): - Brandin Cooks - Diontae Johnson - Emmanuel Sanders - Alshon Jeffery - Mecole Hardman - Jerry Jeudy - CeeDee Lamb - Jalen Reagor - Justin Jefferson - Michael Pittman Jr. - Tee Higgins - Laviska Shenault Jr. - Antonio Gibson - Antonio Brown
  11. How what's going to be handled? You think he's referring to week 1? I suppose it's possible - kinda like how Nicklaus, Palmer, and Player kick off the Masters as honorary starters.
  12. I mean, only 5 backs finished 2019 with a snap count over 70%, so you're correct to assume there will be a time share. But could you elaborate on what you expect to see from Damien Williams this year and why? He finished 2019 with a snap count of 34.95%. Do you expect that to go up? All I see in your prior posts is hyperbole: Labeling DW the "playoff MVP if not for Mahomes", saying the 31 other teams are thanking Andy Reid for this CEH pick, calling CEH "James White", implying Andy Reid can't draft RBs because he drafted two "bust" running backs last year (FYI - He drafted only one running back, 6th round RB - Darwin Thompson, who ended up playing 206 snaps for a Super Bowl winner - hardly a bust), saying "Andy Reid has always shown faith in DW. Injury has always been the critical factor" (It's literally been the opposite. Injuries/suspensions to other players gave DW his opportunity. Even then, Reid has since acquired at least 4 other running backs and guaranteed DW very little money), saying "Reid has a sense of nostalgia that betrays the obvious at times" (What evidence is there of this???). Finally, you reference that you are speaking "statistically" in your posts, but I am yet to find a single statistic. To me, your opinion comes across as unfounded.
  13. What does this even mean? Are you trying to say CEH will only be a role player, and the Chiefs don't want more out of him? Get outta here. FYI - After drafting Patrick Mahomes in 2018, the Chiefs have only selected offensive skill position players with 5 of their next 23 picks (one being Kareem Hunt). And what makes you think they reached for Hardman and Clyde? Daniel Jeremiah had Mecole Hardman listed as his 57th prospect, and CEH his 32nd - they were drafted at 56 and 32 respectively. Seems like you're saying other people shouldn't speculate, but you're speculating AND exaggerating. Which is fine - opinion can vary and speculation can be useful, but don't let it get in the way of the facts. Here are the facts useful for projecting CEH's rookie performance: Damien Williams was an undrafted free agent. In his first 4 years with the Dolphins, Damien Williams rushed for 477 yards on 133 carries (3.59 yards per carry). In March 2018, Damien Williams was signed by the Chiefs to a 1-year $790,000 contract, to play behind Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware. In November 2018, Kareem Hunt was sent home by the Chiefs following the release of the TMZ video. In December 2018, Spencer Ware, an upcoming free agent, went down with a hamstring injury and was unable to return until the AFC Championship game. In December 2018, Damien Williams was signed by the Chiefs to a 2-year extension, with only $900,000 guaranteed. Following the Spencer Ware injury, Damien Williams started the final 5 games of 2018, rushing 69 times for 414 yards (6.0 yards per carry). In August 2019, Andy Reid said "we'll do that here" when asked if the Chiefs would implement a running back by committee approach in 2019. In September 2019, 31 year old LeSean McCoy was signed by the Chiefs to a 1-year deal, with $3,000,000 guaranteed. One week after being signed, LeSean McCoy carried the ball 10 times for 81 yards. Damien Williams carried the ball 13 times for 26 yards (2.0 yards per carry). Between weeks 2 and 8 (while missing weeks 3 and 4 due to injury), Damien Williams carried the ball 35 times for 74 yards (2.11 yards per carry). In week 9, Damien Williams carried the ball 11 times for 34 yards (3.09 yards per carry), in addition to this straight up the middle run for 91 yards. In the following 8 games (playoffs included), Damien Williams carried the ball 108 times for 385 yards (3.56 yards per carry), in addition to this 5 yard run that turned into 84 yards when the Chargers defense stopped playing before the whistle. Outside of those 2 monster runs, Damien Williams finished the year rushing 167 times for 519 yards (3.11 yards per carry), with a 34.95% snap percentage during the regular season. Damien Williams is 28 years old and has 1 year left on his contract. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the only player in SEC history with over 1,000 rushing yards and 50 receptions in a single season. The SEC has had 95 running backs drafted to the NFL since 2000. The SEC has had 15 running backs drafted to the NFL in the 1st Round since 2000. Patrick Mahomes said "the one guy that I think would be unbelievable in our offense would be Clyde Edwards-Helaire" The Chiefs drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Andy Reid said Clyde Edwards-Helaire is "such a special football player", "better than Brian Westbrook" and the Chiefs are "excited to put him in this offense and cut him loose." Chiefs GM, Brett Veach said “All of a sudden you get a guy like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and second-and-8s now become second-and-2s and 3s. I don’t know how you can defend that." Clyde Edwards-Helaire can't turn second-and-8s into second-and-2s and 3s, unless he is playing on 1st down.
  14. Right - I know I should have focused on running backs, but I'm fairly certain the divide will be much less pronounced and difficult to see in a simple list of names. Thought the QB list would at least highlight the point I was trying to make, regarding prospects entering the draft sooner. At the end of the day, I am very high on Cam Akers in redraft and dynasty - I just believe his being the youngest RB prospect is irrelevant with so many other top RB prospects born only a few months before.
  15. It makes sense that younger players are more likely to have longer careers and thus, greater career totals. I would be more interested in analyzing their early career success (maybe their first 3 years). Having said that, I think this data does show something we already know - drafting older prospects is kinda risky. Keep in mind, since the rookie wage scale was instituted in 2012, the average age of NFL draft prospects has dropped substantially. Players have little incentive to stay in college and improve their draft stock, instead they try to get into the pros as quickly as possible and set the clock in motion for their second contract. From 2000 - 2011, an average of 49 underclassmen entered the draft per year. Since then, the average has nearly doubled (87 per year from 2012-2018, 103 in 2019, and 99 in 2020). Sure, there are justifiable cases after 2012 where prospects decided to go back to school to compete for a championship, finish their degree, maybe they were in the military, etc., but I feel like most of the time these players would have entered the draft if they were ready at a younger age. As a scout, I would be concerned that their college production was a product of their advanced age, experience, and more developed bodies. Because of this, I am more interested in looking at the last 9 years of data, instead of the last 20. I hypothesize that NFL performance among players drafted at age 20,21 is very similar, with maybe a bit of a decline around age 22, and a fairly sharp decline thereafter - around age 23+. Take a look at these 1st round and 2nd round QB prospects (from 2012 on) and their ages at the time they were drafted. I italicized and crossed out the 2012 prospects from the list because the rookie wage scale was instituted in July 2011 - they were likely unaware of the rookie wage scale when they decided to go back to school and forego entering the 2011 NFL draft. I also highlighted in bold the players who were past or approaching their 23rd birthday. It's an interesting list.. Andrew Luck (22.61) ... likely should/would have entered at age 21 Robert Griffin III (22.19) ... likely should/would have entered draft at age 21 Ryan Tannehill (23.74) ... would have been approaching age 23 in 2011 draft Brandon Weeden (28.53) EJ Manuel (23.12) Geno Smith (22.56) - 2nd Round - 39 overall Blake Bortles (22.04) Johnny Manziel (21.43) Teddy Bridgewater (21.50) Derek Carr (23.13) - 2nd Round - 36 overall Jameis Winston (21.33) Marcus Mariota (21.51) Jared Goff (21.55) Carson Wentz (23.34) Paxton Lynch (22.22) Mitchell Trubisky (22.70) ☹️ Deshaun Watson (21.63) Patrick Mahomes (21.62) DeShone Kizer (21.33) - 2nd Round - 52 overall Baker Mayfield (23.05) Sam Darnold (20.90) Josh Allen (21.95) Josh Rosen (21.22) Lamar Jackson (21.31) Kyler Murray (21.73) Daniel Jones (21.93) Dwayne Haskins (21.99) Joe Burrow (23.38) Tua Tagovailoa (22.16) Justin Herbert (22.14) Jordan Love (21.49) Edit: Jalen Hurts (21.73) - 2nd Round - 53 Overall I think that's everyone.