MoonBlaster

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  1. Yep, assuming there's no major WR add in Houston Fuller will probably be over-hyped all summer leading to people taking him in the 3rd round as their WR1. He would be entirely miscast as Houston's #1, injuries aside, so I can't see myself taking the bait on him in 2020.
  2. Logic always goes out the window when discussing Brady because if you don't like him you've already made up your mind on this years ago and nothing will change your opinion.. he could win two more Super Bowls and people will just respond with "well he's a system guy, Matt Cassel, 18-1, etc."... I mean we really had a guy on here say that Aaron Rodgers should be regarded higher than Brady as if it's 2011 again. We're discussing a guy that is often revered as one of the greatest (if not THE greatest) to ever play his position by a countless number of his peers, consisting of both current and former NFL players and coaches... Idk I guess I trust their judgement and analysis on the game of football a little more than xXSephirothFor6Xx or whatever on various fantasy football forums
  3. I dunno, this is the kind of mindset that prohibits NFL teams from getting out of perpetual mediocre (or worse) ruts, by taking the traditional/safe route or "doing what you're supposed to do".. In reality Nick Foles likely isn't going to lead the Jaguars on a deep playoff run next year, so what's the upside to starting him over Minshew? There really isn't much because Foles is also at the point in his career where he's probably not developing a whole lot further, he's shown that he can absolutely get a hot streak going but at the end of the day he isn't a player most smart teams would feel great anchoring their offense to long term. Meanwhile Minshew has shown that he can win games in the NFL (which is obviously very difficult in its own right, especially as a rookie) and presumably has a lot of room to grow as a player, but he can't develop if he isn't starting.. The Jags don't fully know what they have in Minshew, could he end up being terrible? Maybe, maybe not. Could he end up being a great real-life QB? Again, maybe, maybe not. But Jacksonville would be wise to find this out themselves by letting him start next season. But ultimately we're talking about the NFL where bad decisions flow like wine so I would not be at all surprised to see the Jags start Foles in 2020 which will probably eventually lead way to Minshew starting games later in the season.
  4. Obligatory "they're all system QBs" reply... but I mean it's true, every QB who has had success owes it in part to working with a system that benefits their talents, football is a complicated game with a lot of moving parts, saying someone is a "system QB" as a knock on them is implying that all QBs should play backyard football style on poorly coached teams to be considered good. Imagine Lamar or Mahomes in an Adam Gase offense, would they still produce? Probably, but I'm certain it would not be anywhere close to the level they are experiencing right now because they are given the chance to use their strengths in their current system (wild concept, I know). Tannehill is a perfect example of this, looked like a total flop and bottom-5 real world QB and all of a sudden he goes to a team that calls plays that allow him to succeed and he looks perfectly competent.
  5. Not that I have a ton of options to begin with but I'm all in on Hollister this week.. we've got 14 games worth of data against that says the matchup has enough upside to risk it.. at least that's my logic
  6. Settle down Will lol that wasn't really the point of the post. It was a half joking reference to the the fact that if you're playing him you're rolling the dice on big plays netting the production you want.. not comparing stats because, as you pointed out, they are in fact two separate players. Also the injuries, yes.
  7. Absolute desperation play at this point, he has home run ability but you're almost completely banking on that since he's not allowed to play football inside the 20 yard line. The Will Fuller of RBs.
  8. Matchup is too good to pass up for us streaming folk. The fact that we also get another look at a guy poised to own the position next year (pending Olsen's retirement) is a nice bonus for those in keeper leagues.
  9. Nobody wants their last moment on field to be on the receiving end of a concussion either though. If he's available is anyone holding both Olsen and Thomas here? The matchup seems to be hard to pass up
  10. I think people here may be overthinking the RBBC bit and how the 49ers use their RBs, I've been invested in this backfield all season and have watched a lot of 49ers games as a result... Which isn't to say there is a perfectly defined way these guys are used but there is some tendencies that make it a bit more consistent than it initially may seem. As I alluded to in a previous post, Matt Breida's role really hasn't changed much at all this season and probably won't going forward, he is the quintessential 1B here.. He is used between the 20's on a lot of stretch plays and on some 3rd downs but not all. When healthy he typically plays about 30% of snaps regardless of which other RBs are being used and almost never sees the field in the red zone (seriously it's crazy how they refuse to use him when they get to that part of the field). His existence in the offense absolutely impacts Coleman/Mostert's touch total but he's not much of a threat to steal a ton of upside from those guys due to his lack of red zone usage. When assessing Coleman and Mostert's usage you almost have to ignore the middle part of the season as it was clear the 49ers where trying to get Coleman going as their main 1A (with some poor results aside from the Panthers game) and Mostert was an injured afterthought... since then, and really all season, it's well documented that Mostert has vastly outplayed Coleman in the same role (which includes both passing and red zone work) resulting in Coleman playing around 15% of snaps the previous two weeks where Mostert has thrived. Coleman has also absolutely blown his limited opportunities as of late averaging 1.2 and 2 YPC and getting stuffed on a big 3rd and short last week, so to view Coleman as a threat is to view him as a player who still has the talent to produce on Mostert's level, a mindset the 49ers themselves don't currently appear to employ. Ultimately though in order for Mostert to payoff these next two weeks we still need to bank on a high level of efficiency as the 21 touches he saw against Baltimore probably isn't going to be replicated anytime soon due to Breida's return... we're probably looking at the 12-15 touch range realistically with some red zone opportunities thrown in, so far from a sure thing but easily the highest upside option of the bunch for a team that dominates in the run game. I'm willing to take the gamble here as Mostert has far and away passed the eye test, he looks much more explosive than Coleman and is more than capable at blocking and receiving.. There is totally a chance here where he gets a measly 7 fantasy points (as a lot of RBs are prone to do) but I can't really let the upside sit on my bench for another week... an added bonus is that the 49ers are still trying to salt away the #1 seed in the NFC so there is reason to play their best players the next two weeks (admittedly this week scares me more than next as the Falcons could get blown out from the jump and we see Coleman get extra burn).
  11. It's one of the factors as to why he comes off the field as frequently as he does for being a sure-fire #1 caliber WR.. Unless things have changed this year he usually hovers around 75% of offensive snaps per game which is still good but there are quite a few #1's that are around the high 80's/low 90's for snap percentage.
  12. Adams does get doubled a lot but the Packers actually have a good run game and rely on improv pass plays which can greatly remedy double coverage. Regardless the Falcons are likely looking at a WR staff of Julio, Justin Hardy, Christian Blake, and Russell Gage going forward: - Gage is built like a prototypical slot receiver and is rarely ever asked to block and generally only plays in 3+ WR sets so I don't think he will contribute a ton in the way of absorbing attention/targets. - Blake played a lot in the game Julio missed as he appears to be a bigger bodied receiver who they will trust in 2 WR sets. I actually expect him to take over the Ridley role with some obvious variance applied because it appears they trust him to block - I admittedly don't know a lot about Hardy but I do know he had the smallest snap count in the game Julio missed, playing in 3 WR sets in place of Gage at times. I would not be surprised to see some 2 WR sets consisting of Hardy/Blake because we all know of Julio's inability/unwillingness to block often, I do still expect to see a bump in snaps for Julio with Ridley out however. So long story short I think Christian Blake will be the beneficiary of the most increased playing time, whether that amounts to much fantasy value is anyone's guess but I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on him.
  13. Obviously a lot can/will happen between now and the end of the season but my guess would be, as of right now, they will retain Breida and likely sign another RB in the offseason. I don't think Shanahan has any interest in going with a true bell-cow and is clearly willing to shell out some money for the position as it is a huge factor in their offensive identity. With that said there is still long term value to be had with Mostert if he continues to play well, and even in redraft leagues he might have sneaky value if they bring in another RB in the offseason
  14. Guy is always a stressful start (apart from the NE game where everyone assumed he would struggle) since the Texans usually seem lethargic in the first quarter/half. That aside I still wouldn't overthink starting him next week, just gotta hope Tannehill continues his unreal run and it's another situation where Watson is playing from behind so he can reach his ceiling
  15. Don't be afraid to gamble on the "injury prone" guys if the talent is there.