Weekday Warrior

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Everything posted by Weekday Warrior

  1. At this point can we assume that the Machado/Harper suitors are drawing their lines in the sand, not getting sucked into a bidding war, and basically saying they are comfortable tipping their cap to whoever wants to outbid them? I mean, who is going to criticize the GM who errs on the side of salary flexibility? I’m sure the offer from the Nats that Harper turned down and Stanton’s deal sets the approximate negotiating floor, but I’m guessing the movement beyond that is underwhelming...
  2. I love the power/speed combo but am worried about benchings vs LHPs and to build up his health for pitching usage cutting into ABs. If I knew they were committing to him as a hitter only I’d be less concerned about LHP since I think he could be one of those hitters who is special enough that they let him play through it and the overall season stats would still net out to being pretty awesome.
  3. Brantley signing is a coup for the ‘stros. Guys do get healthy, and the underlying skills are still there for Dr. Smooth. The price they are paying looks like it factors in injury risk too, so if he stays healthy it is pure gravey. The bottom 3rd of their lineup was a noticeable weakness in the playoffs so adding a proven veteran bat was a wise move. This is back to back offseasons now where the Stros added impact talent at minimal cost to what was already a championship caliber core. (Actually 3 if you count the Ken Giles trade....)
  4. Something similar to McCutch’s contract plus incentives for plate appearances seems fair for Brantley and Pollock
  5. I guess this version of Mccutch is sorta similar to what Carlos Santana gave the Phillies on offense (high OBP, modest HR power) they just swapped 2 years at $40 million for 3 years/$45 million but got better positional synergy by opening up 1st for Hoskins.
  6. I would argue that Stanton is a fair proxy for Harper in terms of what the player brings to the table (and Stanton even has the slightly higher WAR whether you start counting from ‘12 or ‘13). So Stanton’s contract adjusted for inflation seems like the best case scenario argument that Harper’s camp can make, but it also seems vulnerable to pushback that with hindsight the Stanton contract was viewed as an overpay as reflected in the tepid trade market just to unload it (at today’s dollar values and following a career season, no less) At the end of the day a willing buyer and a willing seller can agree to whatever they want though, these are just abstract negotiating points. Obviously Harper/Machado’s camp can argue that their age and generational talent puts them in a category that makes last season’s depressed valuations for guys like JD Martinez inapplicable, but if I’m negotating on the other side I’m arguing that the market landscape is making adjustments resulting from bad mega contracts handed out in the past to star players.
  7. There’s only been one $300 million contract ever, right? Giancarlo Stanton, and it didn’t long for it to be seen as pretty close to a give-away in terms of trade value even after he had a 59 HR season! So, in this new age of contract conservatism, why should Harper or Machado realistically expect a record setting contract? $300 million really should be the absolute drop dead limit...
  8. MIA probably wants to save face and redeem itself for last offseason, where they first demanded Acuna plus more for Yelich and then ultimately took a bunch of flashy looking names who are all trending downward now
  9. He was pretty highly regarded heading into 2017 fantasy drafts (before his preseason injury, that is) so I don’t think his strong 2018 finish is flying under anyone’s radar. The power/speed/Coors profile will earn him a lot of love; the injury history is the only source of discount.
  10. I think the Nats can withstand Harper’s loss, but it is a tough division. Relying on Soto’s emergence and Robles to pick up the offensive slack while pivoting to firm up the rotation is a decent strategy.
  11. I wish someone told me he was this good last year
  12. I think it is a good rule to stay away from these guys with shoddy plate discipline, yeah you’ll miss out on Baez’s big 2018 but in the long run I think you’re better off. If the price is right sure take a stab, but that ain’t gonna happen after that insane August-September run he had unless maybe you are in an OBP league with really disciplined league mates.
  13. Wow $140 mil for a pitcher with a relatively small sample size of being any good, I guess that shiny 2018 WAR gave his agent lots of bargaining power
  14. He’s on the higher end of my list of cheap power guys for 2019
  15. I sorta respect the Mets for this move as long as they don’t trade Thor. Their young pitching staff has been touted for years now with little to show for it since 2015. Wheeler is finally showing something, but will be a free agent next year, and even Matz showed signs of life late last season. 2019 is a good season to push, even if it falls flat, I admire the effort.
  16. Seems to fit in perfectly as the number 2 hitter with Cesar leading off. Good situation and skill set to pick up healthy counting stats across the board.
  17. Had a nice AFL. Any chance he breaks into a major league role this year? Mercer, Frazier and Kang don’t seem like huge obstacles to crack the infield. With an everyday role the speed alone makes him fantasy relevant, and he seems to have a better fundamental plate approach than other empty speed guys.
  18. No thread on him or is the search feature not working (I’ve found it unreliable in the past)? Anyway, been getting some buzz lately, especially after the AFL. Pretty nice 2018, 25 HR/17 bags between low and high A. Strikes out waaaay too but the 5 category upside appears to be there.
  19. Prospects Live recently listed as the #1 overall Philly prospect, ahead of Sixto who was a consensus top 20 prospect overall last year. Fangraphs not quite as bullish but did say he could be Philly’s “2019 prospect breakout”. Only recently turned 18, but appears to have every offensive box checked off except HR power that is expected to develop. Maybe someone who could make the quantum leap to top overall prospect lists next year?
  20. Okay then, so with the Bruce bailout too the Mets are basically paying Cano his market worth and swapping prospects for an elite closer. I guess they are hoping to make a run if evertything coalasces with their pitching staff and mix of veteran plus young up and coming bats. If their division wasn’t so competitive maybe this would have a chance...
  21. This would be an indefensible move by the Mets unless Seattle swallows some of Cano’s salary.
  22. As a rule I try to avoid bad plate discipline types, the power/speed potential is enticing but easy to pass on given how truly putrid his K/BB is.
  23. I don’t think I can get behind Yelich as a late first rounder without the recency bias, I’d rather lock up an elite SP and then get an OF in the second round like Benentendi, Springer, Stanton, Blackmon, Judge (all of whom could plausibly end up having a better 2019 than Yelich)
  24. I didn’t mean to imply he’s in elite territory but I would argue that the ultra high K rate offsets the WHIP (which isnt even THAT bad) since it mitigates the damage of guys reaching base. There is precedent for guys having successful stretches as closers with a higher-WHIP-than-you’d-like-to-see-for-a-closer that is compensated for by a dominant K rate (for example Trevor Rosenthal or Brian Wilson) and Knebel is looking stronger on both fronts than most of those sort of guys. Again, I’m not arguing that he is awesome or anything, I was just surprised to see both of those metrics looking the way they look during what seemed like such an awful season
  25. You know for all his adversity this year the Ks and WHIP still point to an excellent reliever who is closer material He really just had a bad week or two post ASB and wasn’t given the leash to play through it due to bullpen depth