fawkes_mulder

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fawkes_mulder last won the day on February 12 2017

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About fawkes_mulder

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  1. There’s so much shade in this thread for one of the best bats in the MLB...can’t wait for the season to start already.
  2. My mistake, misread your band of upsides as a band of outcomes. I do think all of those are possible, I think he’s a really interesting and volatile player, worth the gamble at some point. I like around the 50th off the board like I said earlier.
  3. let's be honest guys, nobody with a 30% k rate has a "floor" of .280. I think Hiura's very talented, but stuff like .240 is in the same realm of possibility as stuff like .320. I'm giving him a very wide band of outcomes for his sophomore year. I do think he's a great dynasty asset and will be an MLB regular/star for 10+ years. But expectations are sky high ITT.
  4. Interesting late round 2B/SS/OF... 16/12 and 12/12 power speed the last couple of years with less than 500 PA each time. I think he goes 600+ PA this year barring injury, could be a 17/15+ regular with .245/.248 or better avg...think will improve. 70+ runs and 70+ rbis too I think with full time. Could be .250+. Nice healthy walk rates 8.5/9.7 last couple years. Entirely possible this is what he is and he doesn’t improve (I think he can), but seems like a solid versatile end of draft player.
  5. So last year surprised the hell out of me but I like the 8.4 bb% vs 13.7 k%...I like it a lot. Mid 40s ADP is appealing. I’d rather have Ketel than Hiura.
  6. I just don’t think he’s good at baseball. He’s a very late dart imo otherwise you’re cherry picking a hot month for a nice, refreshing ice cold Coors talent. Meme me if he’s good, I will deserve it Lol I actually am taking archer over this guy btw 😂 Let’s not forget this is a guy who deserved to lose ABs to a guy who just got DFA’d by the Orioles. The man, the myth, the legend...patty barrels. I’m only half saying this for the memes.
  7. Boring discounted stud, sign me tf up.
  8. Tatis is my boy but damn he is expensive. If you draft him in the 2nd I think you better be conservative for the rest of the draft. this hurts me a lot cause I’ve been a tatis fan since he was jailbait but I think he’s become too cool and I’m a hipster that likes him a little less now bc of it... cheers to you mad men that inevitably draft him in the 2nd or even 1st round. Some avg regression is coming but that power speed is sexy fun. You’re still mad men.
  9. Exciting young player with a terrific hit tool who was projected to be a top 3 pick In the mlb draft if there wasn’t concern about his elbow. #9 was a steal, his elbow isn’t a problem, and he’s hitting like the scouts thought he would. adp around 50 seems very fair, I think it’s nearly certain that he’s gonna regress on the babip side but I also think he’s not a guy likely to forever be striking out 30% of the time. Still a concern for a young player and I think that’ll improve over time. power last year was most surprising thing. sorry not a hot take machine here, but I like where the market has him right now. Think he’s appropriately priced and that he’s got a wider range of outcomes than other players in this area with plenty of boom and some bust potential. Even though I like him, i would likely not be reaching to acquire hiura. I have a weird spidey sense that as we get closer to March his adp in 5x5 will rise into the low 40s or high 30s where I’d feel a little too risky.
  10. I'm treading dangerously into bench coach waters, but that team is loaded on young talent, I'd flip one or two sexyish bats for the Verlanders and Scherzers of the world and go win it all while maintaining a great dynasty position. I think TINSTAAP is a BS acronym, but I definitely do prefer having more bats than pitchers in my minors. That said I'm a fan of Matt Manning having that inning eater workhorse frame (+good talent I think), and earlier ITT you mentioned Edward Cabrera who I think has a real opportunity and is a pitching spec riser. Agree on having to catch the fast risers, that's why I never really care (anymore) all that much about most publications' actual placement of the majority of the t100. I'm more interested in the t100 newcomers and guys on the outside looking in, and the quality of the blurbs of course.
  11. My advice is to not give a **** care about their rankings, read their blurbs, look at fangraphs, look at ADP, and from there make adjustments versus ADP for your own personalized list. Or it doesn't even have to be a full list if you're feeling a little lazy, but definitely identify the players you think are under/over valued per ADP and have that in mind going into the draft. ADP / historical league trends are the most important baselines. Edit: I like the Forecaster, fangraphs, and occasionally Yahoo articles. Not a fan of razzball. The real fun is blazing your own trail after taking in info from multiple sources.
  12. I think there's really two lists in the way I think about prospects. There's one that's centered around market value and another one that centered around my own personal opinions, irrespective of the market. Just as an example, I see Nate Pearson ranked #6 and Jo Adell ranked #8. My personal opinions aside, I think most fantasy league marketplaces will put more value to Jo Adell than Nate Pearson. But I don't think the purpose of your list is a market value barometer, right? Prospects are like stocks, are we planning to buy and sell or ride the distance? So I don't have any issues with your calls, thanks for the content, it's easy enough to figure out the barometer of the market, I'm more interested in seeing where people deviate and where less heralded prospects are brought to my attention. I think the biggest gains are when you're mining guys outside the t100 and then they blow up. Like getting Luis Robert on the ground floor would be like buying Tesla at $170, and it's now over $500. Edit: I usually end up selling my high value stocks/prospects, the ones I'm currently investing in are largely unheralded. Like Coach George I've got Luisangel Acuna high on my personal list even though the market isn't there yet. Just for kicks, my owned guys: Luisangel Acuna, Miguel Hiraldo, Gabriel Arias, Olrevis Martinez, Braden Shewmake, Brice Turang, Ryan Vilade, Mauricio Dubon, Kevin Alcantara, Gilberto Celestino, Gilberto Jimenez, Brandon Marsh, Edward Cabrera, Joe Ryan, James Karinchak. Karinchak is MLB reliever, Dubon MLB 2B and think both could be 2020 ready. Turang, Cabrera, Marsh, Vilade, Martinez are gonna flirt with some publications' t100s, and the other guys are probably more off the radar but I like to possibly make huge gains. I don't particularly like Turang, but this is another case of where I'm treating specs like stocks, I hope to trade him.
  13. Last year’s ADP was 44 in spring training. This year it’s 20 (right now) after he finished the year #3 on ESPN’s 5x5 player rater. Not to mention, there’s bonuses you get from Rendon in formats rewarding plate discipline (e.g. obp/pts). Yet people ITT don’t want him in their t50 or even t100. Absolutely wild. #sorrynotsorry re quoting myself from last year’s Rendon thread.
  14. As Brockpapersizer correctly pointed out, the market has been projecting the age related decline/death of Cruz for years now. For most of last decade honestly. And he’s been someone I’ve owned for something like 7 or 8 straight years. One day Father Time will get Cruz, but it’s just as likely to be retirement as performance decline. He looks like the new Ortiz.
  15. Some kings of bad takes ITT. “Not a t100 player...”