fawkes_mulder

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Everything posted by fawkes_mulder

  1. http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/luis-robert-leaves-cuba-clock-ticking-new-rules-begin/#K98rSfOijce8ZpHY.97 Nov 21, 2016, translated Cuban article. https://www.cibercuba.com/noticias/2016-11-21-u58139-pelotero-luis-robert-moiran-habria-abandonado-isla Eric Longenhagen (fangraphs) scouting report, July 1, 2016 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-cuban-ofs-luis-moiran-robert-julio-pablo-martinez/ Longenhagen chat Jan 10, 2017 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-the-thaw/
  2. Yu's bb/9 in 2016 was the best of his career, I'm not sure what you're talking about. TJS is behind Darvish now. He had surgery March 17, 2015, and didn't rush his return. Came back May 28, 2016, which is 14.5 months. That's more than the year some pitchers get, and closer to the year and half I usually like to see. He had some shoulder discomfort, nothing on the MRI, and then rehabbed and returned strong like he has always been his entire career. He was 100% healthy to close the season and should be 100% healthy in 2017. His fastball velo was some of the best in his career in 2016. He averaged 200 innings per year over 2012 and 2013. He was on pace for 200 innings in 2014, before having arm issues, which was the spectre for the 2015 TJS. I see no reason whatsoever that yu won't return to his 200 inning ways now that he has moved past all that. With Yu, I look at his 2014 arm injury, 2015 TJS, and 2016 shoulder issue ALL as connected medical issues which have now resolved. I see Yu as an easy top 10 pitcher.
  3. Rendon is Mexican. But if by "Latin" you mean players that emigrated here from Latin countries and weren't born here, then maybe the Nats are unique.
  4. 1. Eaton 2. Turner 3. Murphy 4. Harper 5. Rendon 6. Werth 7. Zimmerman 8. Norris 9. Pitcher Not so bad, should have tons of RBI opportunities. Werth and Zimm aren't completely useless, could be 750 OPS kinda guys each.
  5. fangraphs is free. I mean, I paid $20 for fangraphs+ a couple years ago just to support the site, but FG+ didn't have any new features. They still have some sort of premium membership, but it's the same deal, no new features, you'd be paying just to support them. Which is totally cool, if you feel generous, it's a great site.
  6. Baseball prospectus is worth the money for minor league coverage. A year ago I think I bought ESPN insider on sale x 3 years, primarily for access to Keith Law's ranks, although that was probably not necessary. Lukewarm recommendation for that. Maybe when I'm a fat cat I'll shell out for Baseball America too (can anyone comment on that?). I also think MLB.tv is worth the money. I like to watch my pitchers pitch, mainly for enjoyment, but I want to see what the stuff looks like. Brooks baseball and fangraphs are great for diving into velo and peripherals, but that's only part of the picture.
  7. I'm a big fan of Matt Moore, he was figuring stuff out late last year. He was mega hype, #1 prospect, had some success, tore his UCL, rehabbed it, and had some struggles coming back with some more flashes of brilliance. I think this is the year he takes a major step. Also damn i love having pitchers that pitch half their games at At&t, best park in the league by a mile for pitchers.
  8. Too much pessimism itt. Rendon is a guy who will produce in all 5 cats and he'll play every day due to superb defense. ADP in 7th/8th is a big time steal at the moment. This was a guy I saw get drafted in the first round of a dynasty draft in 2015 and I thought it was reasonable. All said and done I don't think 2014 was a career year at all, Rendon's talent is amazing. drip drip drip production everywhere. Set it and forget it.
  9. BABIP is super hard to predict but I think it will be above .300. Apologies if this seems like a lazy comparison, but he reminds me of Carl Crawford on the rays 2004-2010. Not a perfect comparison because crawford struck out less and walked less, but they are similar power/speed players and have a similar gb/fb/ld split. Crawford BABIPs: 2004: .322 2005: .325 2006: .331 2007: .374 2008: .297* (injury shortened year) 2009: .342 2010: .342 Tossing out the low and high from that sample, we're between .322 and .342 with a median of .331. I'll go with .331 as my projection for Villar. Rough science, don't kill me.
  10. Infield pop-ups are also tracked on FanGraphs (IFFB%), and they are expressed as the percentage of pop-ups a batter hits out of their total number of fly balls. These numbers are generally small and fluctuate from year to year. They’re the worst batted ball type for batters, as they almost always lead to an out. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/batted-ball/
  11. anyone that thinks villar lacks power or is only a slap singles guy who got lucky with some wall scrapers should watch this http://m.mlb.com/video/v1148120983/chcmil-villar-crushes-his-second-dinger-of-the-game/?query=villar
  12. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-sale-is-pitching-to-contact-now/ Prescient article. They weren't lying. Still a great pitcher but the days of mega elite Ks are over. Will still go over 200 easily though and he'll prob continue to go 7 IP on the reg so it's a trade off. I probably prefer Yu Darvish for fantasy though, cause he's still trying to strike the world out. @The Big Bat Theory haha i posted this before i saw your post. impeccable timing.
  13. super interesting guy. wish he had more power.
  14. Final Projection: 155 Games, 660 PA, 94 runs / 27 HR / 109 RBI / 4 SB / .321 / .382 / .519 (.901 OPS) Yes, I'm hype. I think the average comes down from last year but the OBP doesn't go down much because he pushes his walk rate up too.
  15. Where is everyone else with Murph? I was hoping to get some thoughts but this thread has been crickets so far haha. More or less valuable than Jake Arrieta? (I say this as someone who traded Arrieta for Murph + Familia in dynasty, cats in sig). Do people believe? Career BABIP .319 vs. .348. So if regression hits, will it be only marginal and he can still provide good value? Is the HR outburst since the middle of 2015, and especially that postseason, a mirage or a change in the type of player Murphy is? He had a career high FB% of 41.9% last year...only 12.4% hr/fb. I'm inclined to believe he's taken strides as a player and is legitimately hitting for more power now. looks at flyball distances. 2016 avg flyball distance 280.63 ft 2015 avg flyball distance 278.46 ft 2014 avg flyball distance 267.52 ft
  16. Nido is a guy I previously owned, although it had less to do with faith in him and more about a) the likelihood of D'Arnaud getting injured again and b.) Rene Rivera's limitations with the bat. The problem is that I think Rene Rivera would still get a lot of run in the case of a TDA injury because he's an above average MLB defensive catcher. Not a bad stash though, but I've got Carson Kelly and Andrew Susac as stashes ahead of him personally.
  17. Tough player to pin down. He's always been a solid batter, but starting in the 2015 post-season, he turned in Daniel "the great bambino" Murphy, slashing .345 / .390 / .764 (1.153 OPS) over 64 plate appearances. He also thrived in the 2016 NLDS, slashing .438 / .545. / 438 (.983 OPS) over another 22 plate appearances. His total postseason stats over 2015 and 2016 include 16 runs, 7 HR, 17 RBI, and 3 SB over a total of 86 PA. This is not to mention, of course, the excellent regular season he had in 2016, slashing 88 runs / 25 HR / 104 rbi / 5 sb / .347 /.390 / .595 (.985) over 582 PA and 142 games. He missed some time with injury to end the year, but will be healthy entering 2017. NOW -- this is a bit of an interesting exercise, but I expect Murph to get more than 582 PA in 2017. He's generally been an iron man, and has gotten 612, 697, and 642 PA in three successive years prior to minor trips to the DL in 2015 and 2016. This is the mind boggling stat. If you add Daniel Murphy's playoff stats in 2015 and 2016 to his 2016 regular season stats, it equates to a true full season of "the new Daniel Murphy" 161 Games, 668 PA, 104 runs / 32 HR / 121 RBI / 8 SB with an OPS over 1.000... Now, am I projecting that line for 2017? No. But I don't see any reason why he can't come close. He strikes out less than 10% of the time while still hitting for power now...that's remarkable. I still think he will hit 20+ HR with HR up around the league, with a good shot at 25+ again. Murph is kinda a superstar now. Anyways, I just drafted him #29 overall in the rotoworld mock, and it feels like good value.
  18. value has increased twice now this offseason. He was buried in arizona, was likely to split time with smith, and is now looking at full time reps. Like him, reminds me of ryon healy, late blooming PCL star, under the radar. Yes PCL is a hitting friendly league but it doesn't mean success is irrelevant. Will be farther under the radar than healy this year, of course.
  19. Also, I have a theory here, pardon me if this is too much tinfoil for you. Just living up to my handle: The "blister from hell" that kept Rich Hill on the DL last year was a fake/exaggerated injury to handle his innings. This wouldn't be the first time that a team had gamed the DL system for ulterior motives. Dan Haren once famously said he was "put on the DL for being sh**ty." The Dodgers intended on keeping him fresh for the playoffs, and didn't want to run his innings too high, considering his journeyman history and the fact that he hadn't had a real starters workload in almost a decade. My league has 3 DL spots, I don't mind a phantom DL trip. In fact, I expect Rich Hill to go on the DL in 2017 with some unspecified ailment, probably in the summer, and he'll come back in late August to ramp up and be fresh for the playoffs. This is fine with me -- I'll have Rich Hill right when the fantasy playoffs start, and hopefully get uber high quality innings when they matter the most in h2h leagues.
  20. Just bought on Rich Hill in dynasty. He wasn't too expensive. Dodgers have faith for 3 years, $48 mil, then I have faith. Don't even mind too much if he gets a DL trip during the season, I'm hoping he is a super stud in the h2h playoffs.
  21. Nola was mega elite at the start of last year. Didn't own him anywhere but I watched his starts and he wasn't getting lucky IMO. Obviously, he came crashing down to earth, and he got injured, but he was a highly rated pitching prospect and championed as a likely #3 pitcher due to outstanding control, not so much the k rate. We saw him strike a ton of people out and elevate his ceiling to a #2. I would rather own Nola over Pineda by a pretty long shot. I'm not ignoring the risks with Nola (health, chance of repeat ineffectiveness), but I honestly think he's got top 30 upside pretty easily.
  22. I'm gonna bet some big money on the Phillies and Braves this year in Vegas, think they will both be closer to .500 than what I expect their o/u will actually be. If the lines are around 70 wins apiece, that's money in the bank. Also, QS leagues, playing for Philly is pretty nice. Wins shouldn't be standard IMO but that's a whole different can of beans.
  23. Honestly, it's hard to believe this. Bautista still was an above average bat last year despite the decline.
  24. I watched almost all of his starts last year, which was half an exercise in masochism and half an indication of hope. I do think he's got talent. I'll give him some benefit of the doubt in that developmentally he should be in A+ or AA rather than thrust into the MLB. That's the nature of rule 5, and we'll probably see something similar with Miguel Diaz this year (who is a prospect I liked even when he was on Milwaukee!) He also was a DRA darling, per this article. https://www.google.com/amp/s/glovepop.wordpress.com/2016/12/08/the-dra-darlings/amp/?client=safari So I definitely see some deep league appeal.
  25. Btw -- re striking out more than expected, that isn't unusual. MLB pitching is a lot better than minor league pitching. So I don't think an increased k rate necessarily evidences "selling out for power."