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Everything posted by fawkes_mulder

  1. FWIW we talked about this over pm and I think we're all good. It wasn't my intent to throw away his points or discredit him because he's a Cubs fan. I do think he's zeroing in on the positives, which is fine, it's what most people do in player threads. The people that comment on player threads are more likely to have a stake in the player at hand, whether because they own them, are a fan of the team, plan on drafting them, etc. As you've commented, everyone has bias. Somewhere in that same conversation I actually acknowledged I have some bias based off my main league rules, and how I'm trying to tailor my opinions back towards standard. regardless, it was a spur of the moment comment made on mobile, and I thought it was more jocular than antagonistic, but taob takes great pride in his opinions, and with good reason as he puts a ton of effort and research into them. I didn't anticipate it being a lightning rod of controversy, and I didn't like how the tone of the conversation went so negative. but like I said this is all patched up, and we're all good, with apologies both sides for saying things out of line.
  2. I did a ton of digging and decided to take the plunge in dynasty. The second half slow down made him available whereas, if that didn't happen, he would be getting drafted in the first round ubiquitously. Not ignoring what did happen, but he's always had mega talent, as others have said the padres like to run, he has a healthy BB%, strikeouts under control, overall a lot to like under the hood. And he looks like he is healthy finally.
  3. i'll set the o/u on total season plate appearances at 250. zero interest.
  4. depends on price. nice player to own in average leagues, especially with SB scarcity. Will have to specifically draft power around him though, so tricky for roster construction, unless punting hr. Horrible to own in obp/slg formats, obviously.
  5. Just a couple things here. 1) I do think he is talented. I still think he is overrated probably. It isn't just deGrom, I see a ton of players I'd rather own than contreras drafted after him in that Mock. My position is that even if Contreras finishes #4, which I think is very possible, the gap between 3 and 4 is probably significant versus not so significant from Contreras down. 2) You asked for a counter opinion. These player threads often turn into echo chambers so a little dissent is a good thing. 3) I acknowledge all your points, but you're 100% cherry picking sept/oct. 4) I do not whatsoever buy your theory about "selling out for power" based off his gb/fb/ld split. I know there is some fluctuation year to year, but descriptively speaking, his profile was not suited for power OR average. Perhaps we're dealing with a unique player, like nelly Cruz's power outburst in 2015 with a low FB%, but I don't have any evidence to believe Contreras is that kind of guy. Admittedly you are a diehard Cubs fan and you have rose colored lenses for Contreras. I just think he is unlikely to return a draft day value unless his ADP is somewhere in the 100s, which I just don't see happening. If he falls I'll draft him, but I don't think he will, based off our conversations earlier today about age bias and old stud players being underrated and young emerging star players being overrated. I think Contreras is the perfect foil to your Beltre example earlier. Anyways, I've given my two cents. Respect your opinion, good luck to everyone that owns him in dynasty. I still don't recommend reaching for him in redraft.
  6. Quoting myself cause I can't edit...haha Really hard to find ADP data this early in the offseason for baseball... Here, Wilson Contreras was drafted #82, Jacob deGrom #83. http://mlbmayhem.com/major-league-mayhems-second-mock-draft/ I would rather have deGrom by about 10 orders of magnitude. Just one example, I know this isn't a systemic check on market value. But this is about in line with what I expected (deGrom underrated, Contreras overrated). @taobball
  7. Ok...bear with me. I am aware LD takes time to stabilize, but 17.9% LD doesn't correlate to a good BABIP. Line Drives fall for hits more than anything. Batting average for line drives is around .690, for groundballs around .232, and for flyballs around .218 (old source, but I figure it is around this figure currently as well http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/2/16/5403362/batting-average-on-balls-in-play-BABIP). Why should contreras have a significantly above baseline BABIP like 2016's (.339) with a below average LD profile? He's not just slightly under, he's 3% under. Steamer sees him as more likely to be .308 BABIP, .271 hitter. I think this is a pretty spot on projection. As for Yasmani, yeah the average isn't great. For most catchers it isn't, but the drain overall on all the bats in your lineup is less severe due to less PAs. Also I will admit I have some rose colored lenses on for Yasmani because I play in an OBP/SLG league. Still trying to scale my talks here towards average leagues, however. As for those excellent k/bb minors numbers, Contreras still struck out 23.7%. I think it's wholly possible he continues to improve and drops it below 20%, like steamer projects, but the BABIP should also drop. Grounders are better than flyballs for average, but they're still bad compared to line drives. I need to do deep digging to find minor league fb/gb/ld splits cause I can't remember off the top of my head the site I used to use. Anyways, I don't hate contreras. I think he won't kill you. He's not disgusting to own. He does a little everywhere. But I just don't want to pay for him, I don't think he's significantly better than catchers you can get at the end of the draft, other than a little bit of average. Whereas, he will still probably be worse in HR than a lot of them IMO. He could very well be the #4 catcher. I don't even necessarily care if he is, I just am confident he won't be worth the price tag. Where is he going in redrafts ADP wise? I find it highly likely there will be pitchers or other position players I'd rather draft. But maybe I'm overstating the cubby/young player love I expect him to get.
  8. I think Contreras is being overrated. I think he's a solid bet to provide R and RBI value, as well as a decent average, but the HR pace from 2016 seems a bit flukey. I don't think he'll hit 20 HR. I think around 15 or so is reasonable based off his minor league production and heavy GB profile. I can get Yasmani Grandal way later in a draft for a shot at 25+ HR and similar counting stats and a lower average. Also I think there's a distinct possibility Contreras plays less games than some other catchers. Cubbies are stacked, Montero isn't gone, and maybe Schwarber gets some games at C. Just not an enormous fan here. I think he'll provide top 10 value at C, but I don't think he's a "consensus #4."
  9. Scouting friend was at futures game and said he was one of the LEAST impressive pitchers there
  10. Can we all at least agree Verlander would have been a better choice than Porcello? Anyways, I agree with @mysonx3 re issues with fWAR, especially for relievers. fWAR for pitching is kind of bizarre, will always overrate the Pinedas of the world with sexy peripherals and awful performances. I thought the whole point of WAR was finding a figure for how the player actually performed...not how they "should have" performed. But maybe that's a philosophical issue I have with fWAR for pitching.
  11. I don't think there's cause for concern, he's an exceptionally safe pick. Likely to contribute 100/30/100/.280 with an OPS around 900. Something like that. That said, I think he's a little overrated. I see people rank him above people like Josh Donaldson/Miguel Cabrera and I just don't understand it. They'll do the same thing but with more power. I get it though, Rizzo is safe, and he won't ruin you any leagues. And maybe he'll end up hitting more HR, he hit 32 last year despite only hitting 1 for a whole month.
  12. Britton was a guy I targeted everywhere the past couple of years... It isn't just his elite stats, it's his stuff that is filthy. It is really hard to trust production from a guy with middling stuff...look at Joe Blanton's stats for example, and he **** the bed in the playoffs because that's more like his true talent. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=502154&time=month&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=12/22/2016&s_type=2 Look at his velo increase from 13 to 14 and 14 to 15, and it corresponds with his jumps in performance. 2016 was similar to 2015 velo wise, but his improvements can just be made to refining his game. 97+ mph with sink is so hard to hit...Britton's GB rate is one of the best in MLB history. It's been increasing every year. 58% in 2013 to 75% to 79% to 80% last year. We all should know Britton is a super stud...maybe wasted my time with the above. Basically I don't expect him to regress much. ERA around 1 is what I expect, which is insane, with sub 1 WHIP, 4-5 k/bb... Oh yeah, he also should be very fresh entering 2017...not too taxing of a workload in the playoffs lol
  13. Domingo Leyba http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa736654&position=2B/SS High BB%, low k%, 2b/ss availability in Arizona post-Segura...I like him as a guy to watch with possible opportunity in 2017 or 2018. Scouting the stat line a bit here cause he really hasn't gotten much love from the scouts.
  14. They didn't waive the white towel with Melancon...they got a future STUD RP with years of team control in Felipe Rivero, and now don't have to pay the exorbitant fee for Melancon in free agency. I love that trade. Felipe Rivero could very well be better than Melancon within a year or two (yes, I know Melancon is great). That's how highly I believe in Rivero. He's a lefty RP that throws absolute gas and has two quality secondary offerings. Under Pittsburgh's pitching development, I have tremendous faith that they will look like enormous winners in the wake of that trade.
  15. From June 30. Keller started the game for the North squad in the midst of a breakout 2016 after just having turned 20. He looked every bit the guy who ranks among the SAL’s best pitching prospects, throwing nine of 11 pitches for strikes and striking out two. He’s durably-built with a broad-shouldered 6-foot-3 frame with a clean look to his delivery, and repeats it well with a starter’s look. Keller has pounded the strike zone this year, as he’s walked just seven (versus 76 strikeouts) across 67 innings for the Power. His fastball has worked consistently at 92-95 all season—as it did in his one-inning outing—and features heavy, sinking tail. A slightly off-line arm-arc in the back hindered his ability to land his curveball for strikes early in the year, but he landed his curveball around the zone consistently in this look, getting both his strikeouts on breaking pitches. The curve has the ingredients of a 55 or 60-grade pitch, and showed consistent two-plane tilt with good power in the 78-80 range. His changeup shows promising late action, though he doesn't throw it much—he didn't throw one in his 11-pitch outing—and it's currently lacks separation off his fastball, sitting in the upper 80s. His mechanics are clean enough that he can make foreseeable adjustments to his changeup; the sum of Keller's stuff, control, and frame could be a middle-rotation starter. With Taillon and Glassnow soon to reach Pittsburgh for good, Keller might be putting his stamp on the title of Pittsburgh's best pitching prospect, and I see him as a darkhorse candidate for the 2017 BP 101. —Adam McInturff http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29689 He's not a dark horse now, he's a lock. I would guess he's top 40, maybe even higher. He had a 7+ k/bb and awesome ratios all around.
  16. this guy is going to be massive hype. highly, highly, highly recommend buying now if possible before the lists come out.
  17. I decided to Zig while everyone else is Zagging. I bought on Cutch in my dynasty. He still offers 4 cat upside/greatness with marginal contributions in SB that may rebound in 2017. This is pure hunch, but I expect Cutch to run more in 2017 than most expect. I think the Pirates will try and rehabilitate his trade value, by "showcasing" him, including on the basepaths. If Cutch starts to look like his old self, then I expect him to get shipped off around the trade deadline to a team like the Yankees, Nationals, Dodgers, Giants, etc. He was too good for too long to be washed up at the age of 30. I don't think he's a superstar anymore, but let's see where his ADP lands up. Almost everyone gave up on Verlander after a down year and a half (not me though). If his ADP falls below 40-50, he's a steal. It easily could. For reference, I traded Familia, Pineda, and Hamels for Cutch.
  18. WAR isn't an end all or anything, but he was worth 4.8 in 2016 and 2.4 in half a year in 2015. He provides excellent defense. I think he's a better IRL player than fantasy, but the Red Sox should be happy with what they've got IMO... He's shown flashes of superstar potential. I wonder if he can ever put it together for a whole season. As is, though, he looks like a clear above average real life player.
  19. Too optimistic or too pessimistic? lol serious question. The reddick comp makes sense because both of them struggle against lefties. Reddick, however, is at least minimally competent. Conforto can't hit lefties whatsoever right now.
  20. Oh absolutely. That's why I did the trade. I'm trying to defend my 2016 championship with another one in 2017.
  21. I'm with taobball here, Urias is an elite dyno asset, but there's going to be some innings limit and in h2h leagues you run the risk of him in the bullpen during fantasy playoffs. Love his talent but I would much rather have someone like Sean Manaea.
  22. Anyone remember this? This graphic did some SERIOUS damage in dynasty leagues last year...one of my league mates traded Kris Bryant for a package of Conforto, Puig, and prospects... Conforto is going to be a platoon bat until he learns to hit lefties. He's like a more extreme version of Josh Reddick, but will be more expensive. So I'm not exactly a fan.
  23. Had a very solid 2016 season in the aggregate. 94 / 26 / 87 / 9 / .267 / .349 / .486 That said, he will almost certainly be drafted at an ADP below those numbers. I know many people who believe JBJ to be merely a product of two legendary hot streaks over the past two years. An exercise in cherry picking, to be sure -- but my market test in my dynasty league shows him undervalued. What can we expect in 2017? I like JBJ's walk rate, I like that he has some moderate power and speed, I like that he's on the Red Sox for R and RBI. I feel like he can contribute across the board. However, IIRC, he seems to benefit from batting late in the order, which will cost him some PA over the course of the season, if that remains.
  24. Not a fan. Would rather draft Lance Lynn at what is likely to be a similar price.