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Everything posted by fawkes_mulder

  1. You'be touched on it with KK, and we've seen it with players like Arenado and Lindor, glove first guys "click" offensively. Now, I don't think Simmons offers close to the same upside as arenado/Lindor...let me get that out the way...even if everything breaks right. And I don't at all think Simmons is relevant right now in 10-12 team standard leagues, this is a deep play all the way, and something of an enormous gut feeling in addition to the few positives under the hood. But I do see an extremely athletic player who was successful on over 90% of his SB attempts and has shown in the past an ability to hit for power. Steamer has him with 9 HR and 7 SB in 2017...I think realistically he could get 15+ SB with that conversion rate. This is one of those ones I can't even believe I'm arguing because I've always known Simmons as a fantasy irrelevant player. But I can't shake the feeling that he will provide some value in deep leagues. Will probably have to just wait and see here, I 100% already know what the fantasy consensus on this is right now, and I can't blame anyone for staying away for now. All I ask is that you put him on the watch list.
  2. deGrom and Matz are likely going to be super underrated this year due to concern over injuries. deGrom is a t10 pitcher IMO, and will likely be drafted at t20+ prices. I've written at length about deGrom before and why I love him (I actually correctly predicted t10 entering 2015 https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasybaseball/comments/2wu588/jacob_degrom_fearless_forecast_top_10_fantasy_sp/?ref=search_posts ) his career numbers are just mega elite. Over 479.1 IP: 2.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.24 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 4.21 K/BB Numbers really speak for themselves. His ulnar nerve movement surgery was minimally invasive and a pain management / avoidance thing. John Smoltz had the same surgery. I don't expect it to be an issue. For Matz, injury concerns are legitimate. However bone spur removal is also a surgery that is minimally invasive and he will also be ready to go start of the year. Matz' numbers in the major leagues are very solid, with excellent control and limiting the free passes. I love him as a gamble for a top 20 pitcher at likely discount prices. the downside with matz is that bone spur creation in the elbow is occasionally related to an underlying issue with the UCL, per Dr. David Linter. https://www.throwinginjuries.com/elbow/bone-spurs/ however, bone spur creation can also have nothing to do with the UCL and just a result of stress on the elbow. A bone spur in and of itself is just an overgrowth of bone, and not too troubling. I haven't heard any news about damage to Matz' UCL -- he had shoulder impingement and the spurs, and MRIs were done...we would have certainly heard about the UCL if there was something evidently wrong there. For that reason, I am willing to gamble on Matz. Many people (with fair reason) may have Matz as a do not draft for injury concerns, but the upside is immense.
  3. Speed guy with elite BB% and a tiny bit of pop...I thought he could put up Villar type numbers if everything broke right. Obviously was wrong, but I thought the floor would still at least be useful.
  4. Tell that to Delino DeShields. Man, he burned me.
  5. November 1, 2011 5. Jonathan Villar, SS DOB: 5/2/91 Height/Weight: 6-1/195 Bats/Throws: S/R Drafted/Signed: 2009, Dominican Republic 2011 Stats: .259/.353/.414 at High-A (47 G); .231/.301/.386 at Double-A (324 G) Tools Profile: He’s everything a scout would look for in a shortstop, except for hitting ability and fielding consistency. Year in Review: Villar, a tools player who was sent to Houston in the Roy Oswalt deal, split time between two teams, doing little at both levels. The Good: There are top-100 prospects who don't have Villar's upside, but he's very far from it. He's a 60-65 runner, good for 30-plus stolen bases, plus range at shortstop, and a very strong arm. He added a power element to his game in 2011 with 14 home runs, and has at least average raw power. The Bad: Villar's game might be best described as “out of control.” His newfound power led to plenty of bad habits at the plate; he became pull-conscious, adding to a strikeout rate that was already a considerable concern. He also has a history of making weak contact. As capable as he is of spectacular plays at shortstop, he's just as likely to boot a routine play, and scouts question his concentration on both sides of the ball. Ephemera: Villar started games at every position in the lineup in 2011 except cleanup and ninth. Perfect World Projection: Villar is the rare player with the potential to be a 20/20 shortstop, but it will take a myriad of things to break right. Fantasy Impact: As a shortstop with the potential for power and speed, he could end up more valuable in fantasy than real life. Path to the Big Leagues: All Villar really proved with his half-season at Corpus Christi is that he needs more time at Double-A. He'll likely return there to begin the year. Youth is still on his side. -kevin Goldstein http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15385 Average power is ~15 HR.
  6. Yes. Anyways, there are several different ways his BABIP can regress. I think a .360 BABIP projection is probably too optimistic. That is within his range of outcomes though. in the minors he did have a couple seasons with low 300s
  7. Another way his BABIP could fall -- what if Villar falls below his current roughly average LD rate (20.3% v. 20.9% league average)? LD% takes over a year to stabilize. LD% is also less stable year to year than GB% and FB%. Year to year correlation is only .28 -- see this great Hardball Times Article http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-control-hitters-have-over-ld/ I don't think this will be an issue because Villar didn't have some crazy LD rate propping up his BABIP. I'm just trying to keep myself ready for the possibility that the BABIP does fall. All in all though, I think the average 2016 LD% is good news for his BABIP prospects. Because even if BABIP regresses on flyballs and grounders, he has the opportunity to counteract it if he takes a step forward with LDs. There is room to do that. That's what DJ Lemahieu did this year.
  8. Mainly oscillations of luck. I haven't looked at his full baseball savant breakdown yet, but it's conceivable that, just for example, his BABIP on groundballs falls below league average, through no fault of his own. I believe he has the profile to be above baseline. Too many people regress BABIP back to average when there's clearly players that will be above or below baseline (Ryan Howard, for example, would be extremely lucky to reach a .300 BABIP). .340 or so would be reasonable.
  9. My concern is that BABIP drops to the low .300s and he's a .250/.320/.430/10/40 kind of guy. But that's honestly my floor for him, which is still pretty good.
  10. Appreciate all the effort here from both you and @mysonx3...good luck on your exams @taobball One thing about Villar is that he was very toolsy and exciting as a prospect. Problem was that was years ago and people don't remember. he was #94 in 2010 http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/86836 got some continued love for the tools in hot sheets and chats, but was off the mainstream radar. Granted, 2016 was obviously unexpected, but I think there's a sense among some people that it was flukey because Villar was off the radar before it happened (unlike Trea Turner)
  11. Yeah I'm not trying to derail this thread but he needed 1B and had abundant SS. And obp/slg and 2 until and CI so 1B aren't bad positionally anyways. Anyways, without derailing, I do think this is all relevant to how high Trea is being valued right now. dont care that the trade wasn't done. Was referring to a comment ITT
  12. I'm not a Trea hater at all, but I couldn't believe my ears when Rizzo + Matz is an instant reject without even blinking...I mean good grief. Don't even care if you ultimately prefer Trea, but that's a godfather offer IMO and at minimum a very good offer, one that at least merits consideration.
  13. I can't shake the feeling that Simmons is going to end up being productive in 2017. His 7.9% K rate last year is elite...and was a career low. He stole 10 bags vs. only 1 CS. He only hit 4 HR, but has flirted with some power in the past, with 17 in 2013. I'm sure his raw power is not the issue, he's super athletic and obviously one of the best defenders in the game. Bad new, of course, is that the Angels aren't a juggernaut offensively so R and RBI totals probably won't be good. Very quietly, Simmons hit well to end the year, with 102 in the second half. Adam Jones, for reference had a 96 wRC+ last year. He made changes to his swing. http://www.latimes.com/sports/angels/la-sp-sn-angels-report-20160723-snap-story.html wRC+ by month -- Season Monthly BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+ 2016 Mar/Apr 2.2 % 5.4 % 0.40 .253 .269 .330 .598 .077 .259 6 -4.5 .260 63 2016 May 8.0 % 4.0 % 2.00 .087 .160 .087 .247 .000 .091 -1 -4.0 .126 -30 2016 Jun 5.7 % 11.3 % 0.50 .245 .283 .327 .610 .082 .273 4 -2.3 .265 66 2016 Jul 4.8 % 10.5 % 0.45 .375 .404 .479 .883 .104 .414 18 5.3 .379 144 2016 Aug 6.6 % 8.5 % 0.78 .278 .330 .289 .619 .010 .303 9 -3.4 .280 76 2016 Sept/Oct 8.9 % 5.9 % 1.50 .283 .347 .457 .803 .174 .277 14 2.3 .346 122 2016 1st Half 4.2 % 7.5 % 0.56 .269 .296 .353 .649 .085 .283 19 -6.6 .281 77 2016 2nd Half 7.1 % 8.2 % 0.86 .291 .346 .377 .722 .085 .309 32 0.0 .318 102
  14. Yeah, we do a draft in June reserved to college/high school/draft eligible players. I didn't draft Ray actually, I traded Matt Kemp for him because the OBP drain was killing me. Alex Kirilloff somehow went undrafted and was a prospect pick up for me. Love his potential maybe even more than Ray. Any foreign player or non college/high school player is a free agent in our league, if unowned, and can be picked up at any time. I LOVE that we have prospect free agents. It promotes keeping up to date with prospects, as it is first come, first serve. Keeping an ear to the ground got me Blake Snell last year as he started tearing it up, AJ Reed (same thing, flipped for profit), and Eloy Jimenez this past year, amongst countless others.
  15. There's been nothing but negativity in my dynasty league towards him. I put him on the trading block, the first offer I received was insulting - Rutherford, Bickford, other minor league players package. Everyone chirping about regression. I almost traded him for Carlos Carrasco, who I love, but that felt like a sell low. I'll weather the storm here, the upside is really high for power/speed reasons, and especially for me in an OBP/SLG league. I hate cherry picking. FWIW, some reasonable regression will be built into his ADP. If people didn't expect regression, he'd be drafted in the middle of the first round. That won't happen.
  16. Can't edit. Disregard the stuff about his son, that's from 2014. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/11284675/prospect-jorge-lopez-milwaukee-brewers-worries-seriously-ill-son He just flat sucked in 2016, and I don't know why. It happens. Still like him as a flyer.
  17. I don't think there's much to discuss from a fantasy perspective, but people are gonna want to post gifs and/or call him fat.
  18. All prospects owned in my league if anyone wants to peak. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14WvdSaZHPTRAbZwcptSMtV-LmZjDdUPbad7u9OqUB6I/edit#gid=650188109 From my squad, I have a few sleepers amongst the known quantities. Dinelson Lamet Trevor Clifton Fernando Romero Jorge Lopez Austin Riley Jacoby Jones Touki Toussaint Randy Arozarena Alex Meyer Alex Kirilloff Luis Castillo Michael Gettys Pedro Avila Corey Ray Garrett Whitley Jorge Lopez is POST HYPE. He was a consensus t75 guy entering 2016, took a major step back. I did digging on the guy, his son had some medical emergency around the same time. Don't know if the two are related or not. However, he's been doing really well in the Puerto Rican winter league. I think he may bounce back. Player W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR HB BB SO WHIP HLD GF Jorge Lopez 1 1 1.05 6 6 0 0 0 25.2 9 3 3 0 0 8 23 0.66 0 0
  19. Baseball more than any other sport has some really deep leagues. Whereas in football it's mainly 10-12 teams, in baseball, I know a ton of people that play 16-30 teams. Of course, still shallow leagues dominate, but there's some appeal in deeper formats. Also Colon at the plate is hilarious...you're in for a lot of helmet flying off strikeouts. The once in a blue moon HR was great.
  20. Alfredo "Big Pasta" Simon thread was a fun one last year.
  21. In obp/slg...really? Rizzo will slaughter trea in both those cats
  22. I cashed in on early hype and sold for Lance Lynn in a dynasty league. Entirely possible that 6 months from now I'll look like a fool because Maitan hype starts going supernova.
  23. Man. I love Trea Turner, but the hype is getting crazy. In a dynasty league, I just made a godfather offer of Anthony Rizzo + Steven Matz for Trea Turner...and it was rejected...and this is in an OBP/SLG league! I can't possibly go higher than that... I think the ADP could creep into the first round at this rate. (I totally get it too, the power speed upside is awesome, especially in BA leagues). Enjoy if you have him, I think he's a special talent.
  24. I'll second drew ward, nice offensive profile, blocked by Rendon though obviously. Yu-Cheng Chang for Indians is interesting cause he can provide across the board value. on mobile so just off the top of my head, I'll post more later. great thread
  25. Prospect361 has him as their #1 prospect for the Marlins https://prospect361.com/nl-team-prospects/Miami-Marlins/#Castillo