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Everything posted by fawkes_mulder

  1. I just don’t think he’s good at baseball. He’s a very late dart imo otherwise you’re cherry picking a hot month for a nice, refreshing ice cold Coors talent. Meme me if he’s good, I will deserve it Lol I actually am taking archer over this guy btw 😂 Let’s not forget this is a guy who deserved to lose ABs to a guy who just got DFA’d by the Orioles. The man, the myth, the legend...patty barrels. I’m only half saying this for the memes.
  2. Boring discounted stud, sign me tf up.
  3. Tatis is my boy but damn he is expensive. If you draft him in the 2nd I think you better be conservative for the rest of the draft. this hurts me a lot cause I’ve been a tatis fan since he was jailbait but I think he’s become too cool and I’m a hipster that likes him a little less now bc of it... cheers to you mad men that inevitably draft him in the 2nd or even 1st round. Some avg regression is coming but that power speed is sexy fun. You’re still mad men.
  4. Exciting young player with a terrific hit tool who was projected to be a top 3 pick In the mlb draft if there wasn’t concern about his elbow. #9 was a steal, his elbow isn’t a problem, and he’s hitting like the scouts thought he would. adp around 50 seems very fair, I think it’s nearly certain that he’s gonna regress on the babip side but I also think he’s not a guy likely to forever be striking out 30% of the time. Still a concern for a young player and I think that’ll improve over time. power last year was most surprising thing. sorry not a hot take machine here, but I like where the market has him right now. Think he’s appropriately priced and that he’s got a wider range of outcomes than other players in this area with plenty of boom and some bust potential. Even though I like him, i would likely not be reaching to acquire hiura. I have a weird spidey sense that as we get closer to March his adp in 5x5 will rise into the low 40s or high 30s where I’d feel a little too risky.
  5. I'm treading dangerously into bench coach waters, but that team is loaded on young talent, I'd flip one or two sexyish bats for the Verlanders and Scherzers of the world and go win it all while maintaining a great dynasty position. I think TINSTAAP is a BS acronym, but I definitely do prefer having more bats than pitchers in my minors. That said I'm a fan of Matt Manning having that inning eater workhorse frame (+good talent I think), and earlier ITT you mentioned Edward Cabrera who I think has a real opportunity and is a pitching spec riser. Agree on having to catch the fast risers, that's why I never really care (anymore) all that much about most publications' actual placement of the majority of the t100. I'm more interested in the t100 newcomers and guys on the outside looking in, and the quality of the blurbs of course.
  6. My advice is to not give a **** care about their rankings, read their blurbs, look at fangraphs, look at ADP, and from there make adjustments versus ADP for your own personalized list. Or it doesn't even have to be a full list if you're feeling a little lazy, but definitely identify the players you think are under/over valued per ADP and have that in mind going into the draft. ADP / historical league trends are the most important baselines. Edit: I like the Forecaster, fangraphs, and occasionally Yahoo articles. Not a fan of razzball. The real fun is blazing your own trail after taking in info from multiple sources.
  7. I think there's really two lists in the way I think about prospects. There's one that's centered around market value and another one that centered around my own personal opinions, irrespective of the market. Just as an example, I see Nate Pearson ranked #6 and Jo Adell ranked #8. My personal opinions aside, I think most fantasy league marketplaces will put more value to Jo Adell than Nate Pearson. But I don't think the purpose of your list is a market value barometer, right? Prospects are like stocks, are we planning to buy and sell or ride the distance? So I don't have any issues with your calls, thanks for the content, it's easy enough to figure out the barometer of the market, I'm more interested in seeing where people deviate and where less heralded prospects are brought to my attention. I think the biggest gains are when you're mining guys outside the t100 and then they blow up. Like getting Luis Robert on the ground floor would be like buying Tesla at $170, and it's now over $500. Edit: I usually end up selling my high value stocks/prospects, the ones I'm currently investing in are largely unheralded. Like Coach George I've got Luisangel Acuna high on my personal list even though the market isn't there yet. Just for kicks, my owned guys: Luisangel Acuna, Miguel Hiraldo, Gabriel Arias, Olrevis Martinez, Braden Shewmake, Brice Turang, Ryan Vilade, Mauricio Dubon, Kevin Alcantara, Gilberto Celestino, Gilberto Jimenez, Brandon Marsh, Edward Cabrera, Joe Ryan, James Karinchak. Karinchak is MLB reliever, Dubon MLB 2B and think both could be 2020 ready. Turang, Cabrera, Marsh, Vilade, Martinez are gonna flirt with some publications' t100s, and the other guys are probably more off the radar but I like to possibly make huge gains. I don't particularly like Turang, but this is another case of where I'm treating specs like stocks, I hope to trade him.
  8. Last year’s ADP was 44 in spring training. This year it’s 20 (right now) after he finished the year #3 on ESPN’s 5x5 player rater. Not to mention, there’s bonuses you get from Rendon in formats rewarding plate discipline (e.g. obp/pts). Yet people ITT don’t want him in their t50 or even t100. Absolutely wild. #sorrynotsorry re quoting myself from last year’s Rendon thread.
  9. As Brockpapersizer correctly pointed out, the market has been projecting the age related decline/death of Cruz for years now. For most of last decade honestly. And he’s been someone I’ve owned for something like 7 or 8 straight years. One day Father Time will get Cruz, but it’s just as likely to be retirement as performance decline. He looks like the new Ortiz.
  10. Some kings of bad takes ITT. “Not a t100 player...”
  11. Tell that to NFL record holder Michael Thomas. Your take is a really bad one, there’s zero statistically significant correlation between performance and contract years/just got paid years/etc.
  12. No S*** this year is probably his peak year, almost nobody in nfl history put up a year like this scrimmagewise. 80-90% of this year is still a #1 pick though.
  13. DH isn’t a real concern, he’s a fine defensive OF, not the best, but not gonna get sent to the bench for his fielding. The DH stuff was more related to his elbow injury I think.
  14. Appealing late round pick in BA leagues or points leagues that heavily penalize strikeouts.
  15. Saying Rendon "finally put it together" is a bit disingenuous, he's been a great player his whole career except for 2015, when he played through injury and only 80 games. Past three years, .937 OPS, .909 OPS, 1.010 OPS.
  16. don't see how it's a negative to go to a lineup with probably more R and RBI opportunities. Hearing some chatter about his elbow though, only thing to look out for. Was injured late last year and healing now.
  17. I've done "projections" before, when I had a lot more time, but I cheated as a starting off point. I would take steamer and then adjust some players based off deep dives into the players, adjust other players based off shallower dives into the players, adjust other players based off nothing really other than gut feeling or (usually) some sort of strong hatred to the player, adjusting for projected playing time during pre-draft injuries or starting battles, pitchers on the rise or fall with velocity, etc. At the end of the day my projections for the most part looked different from steamer, but that was really just the starting off point, the adjustments were more less educated guesses based off me thinking a player would improve, get worse, or stay relatively the same (and playing time). Or if I just thought steamer was radically wrong about a player (e.g. Khris Davis 2020 IMO). I never checked to see how accurate they were. After the draft all I cared about was in season management and creating the best team. Overall it was pretty time intensive and it was more art than science despite the rows and columns in the excel sheet. And honestly I'm never going to do it again. I don't have that time anymore haha. I think as long as you're staying informed on baseball news and developments you will naturally adjust vs. ADP or vs. fantasy pros or vs. whatever. ADP and expert ranks are always going to be inaccurate. Fine to use that, or steamer, or ZIPS, or whatever as a jumping off point but never be afraid to draft the dude you want over the one the projection system says you should (whatever system it is!) because one is ranked 86 and the other 111 (for example).
  18. Fastball velocities were looked at on brooks baseball. https://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=458681&time=month&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=12/10/2019&s_type=2
  19. In 2019 Lance Lynn posted a career high in average fastball velocity. In March it was 93.87 mph and slowly escalated throughout the year to an average fastball velocity of 95.49 mph in September 2019. For Lynn's whole career, he's been a fastball only pitcher, and pre Tommy John, he was effective with this strategy. In 2019 he used his cutter and curveball to staggering effectiveness. Lance Lynn ended 2019 with a career high 208.1 innings, a career high 246 K, and a rock solid 3.66 ERA/1.22 WHIP. He was undoubtedly a top 20 pitcher, and #17 among SP on ESPN's 5x5 player rater (I do not include closer Liam Hendricks). So why is he being disrespected? His FIP (3.13), xFIP (3.85), and SIERA (3.83) all suggest there's no red flags about the ERA. His 21.4 k-bb% was a career best. On both counts, 2019 Lynn walked less batters and struck out more batters than he ever has in his career. This does not look like a lucky profile to me. Yet he's currently the 48th pitcher being drafted in NFBC leagues and 41st SP.
  20. Honestly, RW, how in the hell has this thread been dead for weeks? josh Jacobs is a game time decision, if he misses time, Richard could be a big benefactor. Say for example that Oakland is bounced from playoff consideration, I think they might let Jacobs heal up the broken shoulder. this guy probably should be spec owned in competitive deeper leagues. Along with Washington.
  21. ^^^^^ Just calling out the kings of bad takes ITT 😏
  22. I’ve been holding this guy for a reason. Welcome to the f***ing show. This is gonna be a near even timeshare now I think. Maybe even towards Jamaal now.
  23. Thomas is a beast. Teddy hasn’t slowed him down, and he’ll have Brees back soon. Could easily finish season #1 WR. Decent amount of naysayers ITT...
  24. Went 3/3 in league championships this year. Lance Lynn in all three was pivotal, including a dramatic come from behind win in my 14 team, $500/head league. Best year of fantasy baseball in my life.