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About ukdesi

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  1. I have only been saying one thing this entire time---A Jones has no floor. That is the only point I've been making.
  2. Yeah in discussing this, rather than draw a line in the sand somewhere, I think looking at it the way I stated above is an easy way to understand the difference in floors, practically speaking. A quick glance through the top 30 scorers (WR/RB/TE), I only see 2 players that had a worse bottom 5 than A Jones---T Lockett and A Cooper. All this to say what we all know---his upside is phenomenal and his downside sucks.
  3. LOL sure thing. An aspect of data science is to simplify things down to a practical and usable level. Stating 12.83 as a bust rate seems arbitrary. What's the difference between 12.7 and 12.9 for example ? One is a bust and one isn't ? In practical terms.....Hopkins provided 25 more points than did A Jones in their worst 5 games-- ~ 5 points a game and that can often be the difference in winning and losing. A guy like Fournette provided 30 more points than did A Jones in their worst 5 games ~ 6 points a game. Again a very practical way of understanding the difference in their floors.
  4. I was responding specifically to side comments about Aaron Jones. So your questions don't speak to what I was directly responding to. I guess your point was to say I was wrong about Hopkins bust rate, even though it didn't change the larger point ? (the bust rate vs A Jones). OK sure. Regarding your statement on Boone---your use of ad hominem arguments tells me all I need to know as well.
  5. The point of this was simple--A Jones has a high bust rate. Of the data you posted for Hopkins and Jones--which one busts at a higher rate ? You aren't going to answer that question. Okay then. I did start Boone over Jones in one league. I needed 16 points to win. But I was facing Boone in another league, and I had a 16 point lead Just worked out like that--I chose to hedge and win one league and take 2nd in another. Going into the game I thought Boone would hit the 16 points.
  6. That's not my point though. And its not just RB--could be a WR too that someone chooses to take in the first round. All I'm saying is A Jones busts at a 1/3 clip, which is relatively high for a first round pick.
  7. No. Wrong on all accounts. The point was Jones probability of busting. If you take him in the first round, what is your alternative ? Hopkins was a comparison point to someone else you could take in the first round. All your data did was prove the point--Jones has a high rate of busting for a potential first round pick. My point was not false--my stats were in the ballpark, and all you did was back it up. 5/15 (what I stated) is comparable to 5/16 (actual data) for A Jones--1/8 is not the relevant comparison. 3/16 (Hopkins actual) and 2/16(what I stated) are also comparable. Again--in PPR--who has the higher probability of busting ?? Based on the data you posted! That is the main narrative here.
  8. Fair enough---maybe so for standard--as that much more dependent on TDs. The data is posted above for PPR.
  9. No its not absolutely false---Which one has a higher probability of busting based on the data ??? I was guessing--didn't look at the stats. So Hopkins is 3/16 rather than 2/16. Jones is 5/16. Moreover---you are missing the point. Hopkins was just an example.
  10. If A Jones had great weeks between 11 and 13 rather than the 5 point games he had.....but then had a horrible playoff'd probably be singing a different tune. Yet he'd be the same player with the same stats.
  11. Absolutely true--based on the sheer data. Not even arguable.
  12. It's the probability of busting--it's like 1/3 for A Jones, whereas for a guy like Hopkins it is 1/8 or something.
  13. Lol sure thing — tons of experts had him in the top 15 - what was jones top 12 or so ? Pretty similar
  14. It factors into it....if you are trying to make a decision based on a floor. Boone conceivably had a higher floor because he was the lead back for a strong rushing team with a better matchup. And A Jones has proven time and time again that he is very capable of < 5 point games. The expert consensus seemed to be that Boone was a really good back, as many experts had him finishing as a top 15 back or higher. Regarding recency, I don't disagree with anything you're saying--I'm just pointing out the rationale that could have been used to play Boone over Jones. And to the point of recency, the Vikings defense did hold M Gordon and A Ekeler combined to under 15 points just the prior week. If you want to get into the nuances of analyzing a one game sample size and determining its worth, fair enough. Sounds like you've never made a bad decision--so good on ya for that.