My point is, lock in gains now, transfer the risk to somebody else, rather than wait for the downtrend to start before scrambling to make these trades. I am very injury-risk averse, so I try to shed injury-prone players every time I have them.
Okay so here's the risk-reward of the scenarios (minus trade scenario because that's another layer): 1) you do not trade CP3, he does not get injured/shut down because OKC is in the playoff hunt, you enjoy his full year stats. Very good case for you, probability of this happening? I would attribute 50%, based on games played on the season (close to 40?) and his recent injury history (approx 60 games in the past 3 seasons). Of course, this probability rate is subjective, but I think it's fair; 2) trade CP3 for somebody with less injury risk, more or less similar production, but he doesn't get injured and continues with his current production. It might seem like you lost CP3's stats, but you paid to shed injury risk (recall, 50% of remaining games worth of stats) much like the premiums you pay for actual insurance, and still get production that is at or near his level (of course, given you executed this trade well); and 3) CP3 gets injured/shut down, lose his trade value or even have to sit through the season with him. You're lucky to get somebody like Rubio.
The keeper play even adds a different layer to this trade: do you think a manager is more inclined to keep one of CP3/LMA? Or one of Brown, Harrell? I agree, Dragic is borderline 12 team rosterable, but I think he was just a deal sweetener. Looks to me the last place team is already positioning for next season than trying to salvage this one. He's putting his outperforming assets to good use.