Fort4242

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  1. Why does everyone assume Edwards and Hill will get touches this year? Do teams usually dress 4 RBs on game day? If someone has data please provide, but typically a team will dress their starting RB, back-up RB, and then a special teams player. Look at last year for example - the greatest rushing attack in NFL history, and the Ravens only used 3 RBs. Ingram, Edwards and Hill all got touches, but no one else touched the ball in the run game. So why this year are they going to dress and then use all 4 RBs? Ingram will be the starter. Dobbins will be the back-up. And whoever plays special teams between Edwards/Hill will probably be active, while the other one is either cut or a healthy scratch on game day. I would be genuinely curious if ANY team's 4th RB got even close to 10% of the team's touches (sans injury). No way the 4th RB is taking 50-60 touches unless a few people ahead of him get hurt. Also - Paul Perkins????? The RB who played for DET last year? Not sure what he has to do with the Ravens backfield.
  2. I know this is the DJ Moore thread, but Julio Jones fantasy finishes in 0.5 PPR: 2019: WR4 2018: WR7 (missed being top 5 by 2 points) 2017: WR5 2016: WR8 (missed top 5 by 16 points - 1 point per game) 2015: WR1 I might be arguing semantics, but I wouldn't say Julio has had a HARD time getting to the top 5. If he was getting TDs at the average rate of WRs, he would be the consensus #1 WR year in and year out. I don't think anyone is expecting double digit TDs out of DJ Moore, but maybe a bump up to the 6-8 range? And I would argue Teddy B might be the best QB he's played with from an accuracy/intermediate passing standpoint, which is where Moore shines. The only real competition I see for Moore is CMC. Anderson is a deep threat and Samuel is a gadget player. Moore had a 24.3% target share last year, which ranked #17 in the league. So it's not like he was force fed tons of targets that won't be there this year. He is currently ranked as the WR13 on FP - he was the WR10 through Week 15 before he got hurt in Week 16. I think Moore is pretty fairly priced, and maybe even a slight value. I think I would draft him ahead of OBJ, Mike Evans, and JJSS - who are all ranked ahead of him.
  3. Que Paso? Ah Nevermind - I sense the sarcasm went right over my head.
  4. Gave this idea a shot using the FantasyPros draft simulator. Using the OPs rules, first pick was a WR, and then the next 4 were non-RB. I drafted against the "ADP Consensus" so don't argue about "Player X def won't be there" or whatever. It's June. I drafted a 12 team league, from the 6th spot. Here's my final roster. QB - Carson Wentz, PHI RB - Mark Ingram, BAL RB - Cam Akers, LAR WR - Davante Adams, GB WR - Allen Robinson, CHI TE - Travis Kelce, KC FLEX - Robert Woods, LAR DST - KC Chiefs K - Matt Gay, TB BN - DJ Chark, WR, JAX BN - Kareem Hunt, RB, CLE BN - JK Dobbins, RB, BAL BN - Tevin Coleman, RB, SF BN - Justin Jackon, RB, LAC BN - Ryquell Armstead, RB, JAX BN - Chase Edmonds, RB, ARI My first 5 picks were: Adams, Kelce, Robinson, Woods, Chark in that order. Then I started dipping into RBs - Ingram, Akers, Hunt, Dobbins were the next lot of picks. I REFUSE to draft a QB early, no matter the strategy, so I waited and snagged Carson Wentz in the later rounds, and then added some "lotto" type RBs to my bench in Coleman, Jackson, Armstead and Edmonds. DST and K were my last two picks. Again, regardless of strategy, taking a defense high is never a good idea. You can make the argument RBs like Cam Akers and Mark Ingram might end up going higher than they did here, but even if I had to use someone like Tevin Coleman, Kareem Hunt, Derruis Guice, Tarik Cohen, etc. as my starters, I don't think I would mind too much in PPR. There are A LOT of uncertain backfields, or RBBCs out there, so if a player wanted to go zero-RB, WR-heavy, whatever you want to call it, I think there's definitely a solution here that can provide a pretty decent team.
  5. MAYBE worth a flier if Kamara holds out this season.
  6. This guy might be my favorite sleeper so far for this year. Multi-dimensional and can line up all over the place, a la Deebo Samuel. A 35 year old AP and always injured Guice are his competition in the backfield. Terry McLaurin the only real threat they have in the passing game. 83rd percentile SPARQ score, and 89th percentile adjusted SPARQ score. Best comparable is Joe Mixon on PlayerProfiler. High draft capital player, Redskins took him at 3.02. This guy could be the #2 option on the offense this season.
  7. Yeah typically the top tier defenses rarely ever repeat. Here's a quick overview of the last few years: 2016: Eagles, Chiefs, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, Cardinals, Dolphins, Ravens, Giants, Seahawks were the top 10 2017: Jaguars, Ravens, Rams, Eagles, Chargers, Lions, Saints, Panthers, Seahawks, Bears - 3 teams stayed in the top 10 2018: Bears, Rams, Texans, Vikings, Ravens, Redskins, Broncos, Patriots, Seahawks, Giants - 4 teams stayed in the top 10 2019: Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Vikings, Ravens, Rams, Chiefs, Titans, Jets, Bills - 4 teams stayed in the top 10 So 3-4 teams typically repeat a top 10 performance the following year? Pretty low odds there. I would hate to spend valuable draft capital on the top defense, and have them perform even at 10th overall. I overpaid a bunch. And if you just analyze top 5 repeats, the numbers become even smaller. Top 3, even smaller.
  8. Nothing wrong with that at all. The only problem I see with that strategy is similar to what we used to deal with regarding the Titans when Murray and Henry were there together. Both guys would be dominant RB1s if given the whole backfield to themselves, but never did. For example, let's assume the Ravens don't fall off one bit and replicate their rushing numbers from last year. And let's say we give Dobbins EVERYTHING outside of Ingram. That would give Dobbins roughly 1,000 yards, 4 TDs, 15 catches and 115 yards. That gives Dobbins 150 points in PPR and 143 in 0.5 PPR. That would have landed him at RB32 and RB29 respectively. And again, that's assuming no drop off for the Ravens AND Dobbins gets every single touch outside of Ingram. Once we factor in touches for Edwards and Hill, that number gets lower. Once we factor in the Ravens might not repeat the greatest rushing output in the history of the NFL, that number might get worse. So if we factor in a few touches for Edwards and Hill here and there, plus a bit more normal rushing output, that would probably put Dobbins in the RB3 conversation. Now with that said, if Ingram gets hurt, Dobbins becomes a plug and play RB1. If both are healthy all year, you probably end up with a high end RB2 + an RB3. And it caps the overall ceiling of your team, given both guys not only play for the same team, but also the same position. Takings Dobbins in the 7th means you're taking him somewhere between picks 72-84 in a 12 teamer (if my math checks out). Guys being taken in that range include Deebo Samuel, Jarvis Landry, Evan Engram, Cam Akers, Tyler Boyd, Derrius Guice, Michael Gallup, Will Fuller, Jordan Howard, Marvin Jones, and many others. It would be tough to take a back-up RB who MIGHT finish in the RB3 range over these players who look to be immediate contributors to help your fantasy team. Now for what it's worth FCC ADP has him in the 13th round right now, and FantasyPros has him ranked #102 overall, which would be a pick in the 9th round, so much easier to pay the price there. The FCC ADP is way off, and I imagine as we get closer to the season, Dobbins will probably go in the 6-7 round range, similar to where Derrick Henry was going the few years he played with Murray. And at that price, it seems a bit expensive for a handcuff/RB3. For reference, Gus Edwards was RB50 through Week 16 last year in 0.5 PPR on the most dynamic running team in history.
  9. Exceptional athlete, but oft-injured last season so never really got going on the field. This is the perfect player to take with your last pick in the draft though. Second year WR breakout is real, and the guy has the athleticism. Breakout age and college dominator are pretty weak though. With your last pick, why not grab the guy who COULD be the #2 on the offense.
  10. I love Dobbins as a player, traded whatever I could to get him on my dynasty teams. I agree with the notion however that at least this year will still be Ingram's backfield, with Dobbins taking the Gus Edwards role from last season. Ingram is under contract until 2022, but the Ravens can save $5mm next off-season by letting him go. Not sure if they will or not - Baltimore hasn't ever been the HUGE FA spender, and Jackson is still on his rookie deal. So perhaps they keep him for 2 more years to really push the window while the QB is on a rookie deal? Ingram and Dobbins would be a nasty pair if they stayed together for more than 1 year, in the same mold as Williams/Stewart back in the day. But for this year, the thing that worries me about Ingram is TD regression. The dude had 15 TDs last season. Especially in the passing game, where had had 5 TD grabs. If he scores 10 TDs this year, that's still a solid season, but now he loses 30 points off his totals. Last year that would still put him at RB11, but you have guys behind him like Barkley, Kamara, Jacobs who missed games and would be ahead of Ingram. Plus others emerging this year like Drake, Sanders, and possibly a guy like Mixon with a better offense. Still a big fan of Ingram for re-draft this season, but I think he finishes as a mid-high RB2. Now with that said, FantasyPros currently has him ranked as RB23, and ADP on FCC is RB20. Both of those are criminally under-valued, and I think he is a no-brainer at those levels. Even if Ingram falls in the TD department, and ALL of those guys I mentioned above pass him this year, he would still finish at RB17, which I think is absolute floor/worst case scenario (barring health). I hope his ranking/ADP stays in the early-mid 20's - he's a steal at that price. Come draft day if he's in the 12-18 range, that might need a little more thought.
  11. No thanks at all to Olsen. Currently ranked TE24 on FantasyPros is anyone really drafting him? I guess you could use your last pick on him as a dart throw that he rekindles some magic from his younger years. Even if I punt the TE position and looking to grab one or two late, upside is the name of the game there and Olsen offers virtually zero.
  12. Love Julio - always safe and always produces. Age might start to become a consideration, but WRs tend to last a lot longer than others. Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith - all continued to put up numbers well beyond 31. Could argue Julio at WR2 after MT. Personally I have Hill, Adams and Hopkins ranked ahead of Julio, but I wouldn't argue anyone who had Julio at WR2. To me, Hill, Adams and Hopkins offer more TD upside. I think MT #1 for sure, and then I don't think you can go wrong with any of those next 4 guys.
  13. Un-draftable in re-draft this year but a solid stash in dynasty from an opportunity stand point. A lot of his metrics are unattractive - break out age, college dominator - but he seems like a versatile player who can play all 3 WR spots. Doesn't seem like a top end athlete, but does more damage with route running and getting open that way. Kupp and Reynolds are set to be FAs in 2021, with Woods in 2022. The Rams could also cut Woods next year and save $8mm so that might become a consideration depending on their cap situation next off-season. If no one gets re-signed, Van could be #2 in the offense next year, and possibly the #1 depending on Woods.
  14. 1. Michael Thomas 2. Tyreek Hill 3. Davante Adams 4. Deandre Hopkins 5. Julio Jones 6. Kenny Golladay 7. Chris Godwin 8. Amari Cooper 9. Allen Robinson 10. Cooper Kupp 11. AJ Brown 12. Mike Evans 13. Adam Thielen 14. Courtland Sutton 15. DJ Moore 16. Odell Beckham 17. Calvin Ridley 18. Robert Woods 19. TY Hilton 20. DeVante Parker 21. Juju Smith-Schuster 22. Keenan Allen 23. Stefon Diggs 24. Jarvis Landry 25. Tyler Boyd 26. Deebo Samuel 27. DJ Chark 28. Terry McLaurin 29. DK Metcalf 30. AJ Green 31. Will Fuller 32. Michael Gallup 33. Marvin Jones 34. Brandin Cooks 35. Tyler Lockett 36. Diontae Johnson 37. Christian Kirk 38. Marquise Brown 39. Emmanuel Sanders 40. Julian Edelman
  15. Schedules DO NOT matter right now