SpartyOn4

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  1. I'm guess I'm a pessimist on Wander even though I consider him pretty much a guaranteed superstar with almost no bust risk. I just don't see him in MLB in whatever form this season might take. He's 19 and never played above High-A. His age 18 season statistics and level of hype are both extremely similar to Vlad Jr., who struggled in his MLB debut at 20. His ZIPS projection is 261/316/388. Wander will be great someday, but is he so great he can just jump entirely over the high minors as a teenager and improve an already strong Rays lineup? That's a crazy lot to ask of anyone, even a super-elite prospect. And even if he is ready to do that, he doesn't have an avenue to prove it if there's no minor leagues.
  2. Yeah, I doubt he plays this year. There’s already questions about whether players with huge contracts would be willing to play under the proposed circumstances. Puig probably can’t get much more than the minimum salary right now. He’s already rich and can try free agency for 2021, which should be a real season. Why the hell would he bother?
  3. Hernandez isn’t really a catcher. There’s a slim chance he might catch a few games here and there and steal C eligibility, but he’s not getting in Huff’s way. If he pans out he’ll be more like Yordan Alvarez - you hope he can play 1B or LF passably enough not to have to DH, but the bat will play anywhere.
  4. In looking all that up, I noticed Rickey had 3 seasons of 100+ BB and 100+ SB. Wanted to see if anybody else ever did that, and the answer is... not really. Billy Hamilton (old-timey version) did it in 1891 and 1894... but in those days, going from first to third on a single was considered a stolen base, so that shouldn't count. Hamilton also had 54 XBH in 1894, so he'd qualify for the Morgan stat. I'm guessing he wasn't included because of the rules differences, but he was credited with 100 stolen bases - maybe half of them were legit?
  5. When I saw that Morgan stat, my first thought was "Rickey never did that?" So I looked up Henderson's stats - it's ridiculous how close he came to those numbers in multiple seasons, especially considering how many games he missed. 1985 - 57 XBH, 80 SB, 99 BB (143 games) 1990 - 64 XBH, 65 SB, 97 BB (136 games) 1993 - 45 XBH, 53 SB, 120 BB (134 games)
  6. Those things might help a few MLB-ready players like Dylan Carlson or Jo Adell avoid service time games, but most top prospects just need reps at the minor league level to keep developing. The best thing baseball can do for these guys is keep the MiLB schedule as long as possible.
  7. Most likely. He's having a good spring too, I wasn't taking it for granted that James would beat him out. Now they should both get a chance. Austin Pruitt is the other guy in the competition and he seems really unexciting - no strikeouts in 6 spring IP so far.
  8. Verlander injury probably locks James in for the rotation to start the season. He's allowed just 1 H and 0 BB this spring in 5 IP with 5 K.
  9. [...] At this point he's worth a last-round pick as a possible IL stash but that's about it.
  10. Canning is going to throw today as part of his medical tests. Thankfully, we have Joe Maddon to clear up exactly what's going on:
  11. I'm fearing the worst as well, but what do you do with Canning if it's not the worst? Suppose the MRI finds "mild elbow inflammation" just like last August, and they just shut him down for a week or two. Is he worth an IL stash? Worth holding in keeper/dynasty? Or are we at a point where Canning has just had so many elbow problems that you have to assume TJ is inevitable?
  12. It wasn’t torn. The phrase I recall was “mild UCL strain.“ Of course, I don’t think there’s too much mild about a UCL injury that keeps a pitcher out for 4 months. That’s like saying a guy who just got guillotined has a mildly dislocated head. Definitely some risk. That said... Weaver is now 9 months removed from the injury and has been able to rest most of that time. And Tanaka had a worse UCL injury, never got TJ and was fine. So there’s hope. ADP of 180 though, I don’t think I like it. He probably slightly outperforms that if healthy, but it’s not like he has ace upside. I’m not taking that risk until he’s clearly a tier above what’s left, and I don’t think that happens until at least pick 200.
  13. His K rate vs lefties last year was 52.9% Hard to see him not being platooned, especially since that’s Tampa Bay’s M.O. anyway.
  14. Villar produced 4 WAR last year. He was "tossed away" by the Orioles because they're tanking and didn't want to pay him. He has his flaws, but the competition in Miami has way, way more of them. Diaz and Brinson have to improve a lot just to get to replacement level. Harrison had a wRC+ of 97 at AAA. Berti's line last year looks pretty fluky based on his extensive MiLB record. Rojas has a nice glove, but at 31 that could start decline and he has zero power. Miami is still an awful offensive team and Villar is arguably their best position player now. He's going to play somewhere.
  15. What's important to stat geeks is success rate. Getting caught stealing hurts a lot more than getting a free base helps, and the math works out to where you need to be successful about 70% of the time for it to be worthwhile. Mondesi was 43 for 50 last year, 86%. In 2018 it was 82%. The numbers say let him run.