Corleone

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Corleone last won the day on August 27 2019

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  1. Continuing on a theme, here is how Jones has ranked on a weekly basis, since getting a larger role in 2018...
  2. What does 2020 have in store for Lamar Jackson? In 2019, he put together one amazing fantasy season. On a PPG basis, it was the top season of all-time. And overall, it probably ranks as the second-best fantasy season for a QB ever (ahead of 2018 Patrick Mahomes and behind only 2007 Tom Brady, who beat the #2 QB by 99 points that season). Some people think that the league will figure out Jackson, with Baltimore's loss in their first playoff game a sign that he can be figured out. I decided to take a look at how the #1 fantasy QB for every season this century did, to see how often the league "figures out" the top fantasy QB. I looked at how many times the #1 QB had a #1 fantasy QB finish, #2 and #3, and then a finish between #4--#8 (why end at 8...because that meant the QB was a QB1 in even the smallest of leagues, and part of the top 25% of QB's in the NFL itself). Looking at fantasy history, you can see that no #1 QB has ever been figured out to the point where the #1 season was their only big fantasy season. 100% of the QB's who had a season as #1, had multiple successful seasons beyond that. Even Vick, who is the closest comparison to Jackson because of his rushing ability, had 4 seasons as a strong fantasy option (and his #1 finish came after a major injury and his jail time). Does this list mean Jackson has zero chance to bust as an elite fantasy option? Or does it mean he is guaranteed success beyond 2019? In both cases, of course not. Every player is different, so we can't say for sure what will happen with Jackson. Perhaps he gets injured while rushing and his career arc changes, amongst other possibilities. We don't know. But what we do know, is that literally every #1 fantasy QB from 2000--2018 (12 different guys), has been able to put up multiple big fantasy seasons during their careers.
  3. The Good, The Bad and The Unknown for DeVante Parker **The Good** 1. After four disappointing seasons to open his career, Parker exploded for his first 1000 yard season in 2019. 2. In fact, his 1,202 receiving yards were 5th in the NFL. 3. He also caught 9 TD’s, which was good for 4th in the NFL. 4. Overall, Parker finished as the #6 fantasy WR in Standard. He was #7 in half PPR. And he was #11 in full PPR. 5. From Week 4 through the rest of the season, Parker was the #2 WR in both Standard and half PPR. And he was #3 in full PPR. 6. With a contract extension in mid-December, Parker is signed through the 2023 season, so the path is there to remain Miami’s #1 WR. **The Bad** 1. Parker was disappointing his first four seasons in the league (a bust), never coming close to meeting his first round draft pick status for Miami. 2. He never played 16 games before 2019, with yearly totals of 15, 15, 13 and 11 through 2018. 3. Since 2010, there are 105 WR’s with at least 200 catches. DeVante Parker ranks 80th out of 105 in catch percentage, at 57.6%. While there have been some big fantasy producers ranked even lower than Parker, this group is filled with plenty of underachievers. **The Unknown** 1. Who will Parker’s QB be in 2020? Parker took off once Ryan Fitzpatrick established himself as Miami’s QB in 2019. Fitz also did just announce a couple of days ago, that he plans to return in 2020. And Miami’s new offensive coordinator is Chan Gailey. Fitzpatrick has lots of experience (and his best success) under Gailey, when he was the head coach for Buffalo and the offensive coordinator for the Jets. Will that mean good productivity for Fitzpatrick in 2020? 2. It’s possible Fitzpatrick will open as Miami’s 2020 starter…but they may draft a QB in the 1st round of the draft. Could that lead to a rookie QB for Parker at some point? It may be that Miami drafts Tua Tagovailoa…who could well have a “redshirt season” as he recovers from his hip injury and learns under Fitzpatrick. 3. Will Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki (or possibly others) put a dent into Parker’s target totals? Williams had his moments in 2019 before a season-ending injury, while Gesicki had his moments late in the year. While Williams has to recover in full from his injury, some people consider him a 2020 fantasy sleeper. 4. Will the Dolphins have an improved running game? It’s almost impossible to not improve. Fitzpatrick led the 2019 team in rushing, with just 243 yards. The highest total from a RB was 201 yards from Mark Walton. As a whole, the team was dead last in the NFL for team rushing yards. Any improvement in rushing could take away from the passing game (and the same is true is there is an improved defense, in which high pass attempt games may not be as prevalent). We’ll know a lot more about Parker for 2020, once we see what Miami does in the draft and free agency. But for right now, he’s got several good points to be excited about, as well as several bad or questionable points that can make one pump the brakes.
  4. Calvin Ridley had an impressive Year 2 in 2019. Despite an injury in Week 14 and missing the final 3 games, he had 63 catches, 866 receiving yards, and 7 TD's. How impressive were those numbers? Well, I took a look at how Ridley compared to Julio Jones through Week 14. Ridley actually was the higher-ranked WR...in every fantasy format: Some will point out that Ridley is higher only because he scored more TD's, and that TD's can fluctuate. But keep in mind that in two seasons, Ridley has been pretty good at getting in the end zone, with 10 and 7 TD's (in 13 games) so far. On the flip side, Julio had 8 and 6 TD's in the two seasons Ridley has been on the team. And 8 and 6 are common totals for him... Julio has played 8 full seasons (plus one year of 5 games). He's had 6 TD's three times. And 8 TD's three times. Plus a 10 TD year, and a 3 TD year. Anything can happen in a given year, but we have a good idea of who Julio is as far as getting TD's. With that, we know Julio's big thing is his consistency getting catches and receiving yards. What's interesting is through Week 14 2019, Ridley had essentially the same yards per target that Julio did. Julio won by .01, 9.32 YPT to Ridley's 9.31. And looking at catch percentage, Ridley had a 67.7% on his targets. Julio was at 63.3% through Week 14. So we can't say that Julio was more efficient than Ridley despite the fewer TD's. Ridley scored more touchdowns AND was more efficient. With Ridley out for the final 3 games of 2019, Julio went off and put up big stats (in Week 15 & 16 in particular). With that, he zoomed up the fantasy leaderboard amongst WR's. Just looking up the raw stats as people get ready to draft during spring and summer 2020, it will appear that Julio was way better than Ridley. But while they were both active, the above stats show that wasn't the case.