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About Motown_Magic

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  1. Another 3 scoreless innings last Friday, giving him 6 IPs and a 0.00 ERA so far. Could be a ratio king. Nice sleeper post below with some data to back it up from Razzball if you can surf through the Razzball jargon. tough to find a way to roster him right now but I could see him being a poor man’s 2019 Ryu this year, as does this post below.
  2. Not sure why- top pitchers bust at an incredibly high rate as it is. No need to take that risk so high in your draft. Giolito, Darvish, Bum all finished as ~SP2s last year, and all you need is one of Montas/Woodruff/Gallen to put together a full season similar to last year and you now have at least 4 SP2s, all with the potential to finish as low end SP1s. Advanced metrics behind Montas and Gallen firmly check out, 2 of the best triple digit ADP upside picks you can get. I would be ecstatic to have this pitching staff. @LJJr, This is a league-winning rotation to compliment a hitter heavy top of the draft, love it. Back to Clev- already seemingly ahead of recovery time. Dude was an absolute horse to finish out the season and a SP1 in all aspects for those who stayed the course. Buying everywhere I can, the current slight discount is just gravy. 200IP/200K with room for more, terrific in QS leagues as well, pitching to my trash Tigers and the Royals all year long? Yessir
  3. Agreed here- on the contrary though, in OBP leagues, I would argue Biggio has a chance to end up higher that Altuve. Hot take, but that's the type of mid round draft value that wins leagues. If Biggio hits #2 behind Bo and in front of Lourdes/Vladdy, throw in a .360OBP and i don't see how 100 runs aren't feasible here. Throw in 20 steals and you've got a serious asset that can be had for cheap, and has a realistic shot to finish in your tier 2 (when talking OBP).
  4. Came here to say exactly this about the runs and stability aspect. It’s cherry picking to disregard the guaranteed playing time and runs. I agree that 30-35 home runs without steals is easier to find than ever, but if you miss out on Machado, Bryant, and the top tier 3B, Chapman is an excellent fallback option. Hopefully you grabbed some steals while passing on the Arenados and Devers of the world at 3B, and a rock solid 95/35/95 guy in his prime in the 8th round is a fine option.
  5. His ADP right now is between 70-95, and you are getting a 26 year old entering his prime, hitting in the middle of a top 10 lineup, who knows how to get on base and generate runs. Top 8 in MVP voting each of the last 2 seasons, easy .340+ OBP, 35+ doubles, 35+ HR power, 100 runs each of the past 2 seasons. He is an easy buy at his asking price especially in OBP leagues. I do not think we have seen his ceiling yet either. .280/.370/105/40/100 is a ceiling here, and i think a safe projection for this season is .265/.355/ 99/36/98. This is nothing to scoff at. He is prone to extended slumps though which I do understand is frustrating.
  6. My wording was poor there- was basically trying to get across the fact that those who think he eventually could have a shot leading off are most likely dreaming. Really what those drafting him round 3-4 need to hope for is a solid increase in steals. I just feel like we would have already seen it happen. Really like Albies though and I don’t disagree with anyone putting him in their top 2-3 2B. Could easily finish #1
  7. Agreed, same will be said for Ozuna. I would actually go as far as to say if you were to go infield heavy with some speed atop the draft, having any 2 of Castellanos/Rosario/Conforto/Ozuna as your 1-2 OFers could be manageable. Very good shot to combine for 60HR/ 200RBIs for whichever 2 you pick here. I realize this is the Castellanos thread though. If you project his Cubs tenure out for a full season you get ~131/49/104 .321/.356... Obviously not attainable, and he was just stoked to get away from my beloved trash Tigers team, but he has a legitimate shot to crack the top 15OF by season's end.
  8. I was basing that off of a brief 5 or so FantasyPros mock drafts but upon further review the simulation may have just been because he was a FA in that system. Fantrax has him as the 30th OF off the board, ADP 119. Rosairo at 94, Conforto 100. Take my initial point and tweak it to 2-3 rounds behind these guys, my bad on the misinfo. I still don't see a reason for that gap at all. He was going between 75-100 last year and if anything, should be drafted on the high end of that range this year IMO.
  9. Gotta love this. Wrigley is right in the middle for hitter parks, can't really see this as a downgrade, if anything it is an improvement. Improved Reds lineup as well. Castellanos has a very good chance to finally eclipse 30HRs. ADP is obviously going to creep up, but he still should be able to be had around an ADP of 90-120ish. Speed is a big sunk cost with him but this is one of the better hitters in the majors, ability to slap the ball with power to all fields. Durable player too, 150+ games in 4 of his last 5 seasons. If you can grab some speed in your OF, he should be a steady anchor as an OF3 with OF2 upside. I will project a line of 97 31 103 .290/.350OBP. Looks very Rosario/Conforto/Ozuna-esque and can be had 4-5 rounds later. Essentially the same exact line as Rosario can be expected to have, and he is going 50-65th overall. I will gladly pass on Rosario to get the same stat line 4 rounds later. Conforto grabs the slight edge in OBP leagues, but Castellanos takes the easy W in BA leagues. Great value at his current cost.
  10. Curious what makes you want to avoid Nola at his ADP, Bryce (big cliff at OF after he and a dice roll Judge go), and Olson? Olson especially- basically a Pete Alonso going 4 rounds later.. Some metrics on Olson (besides his 36 home runs in 127 games)-top 6% in MLB for exit velocity and barrel percentage, top 5% for xSLG, top 2% for Hard Hit percentage, and top 13th% in league for avoiding chasing pitches outside the zone... should be a gimme for 40 and 100 in the 6th-7th round,
  11. All over him in OBP leagues. Dude has a tremendous eye at the plate, should be a lock for a .340 OBP with potential to be around .375. Top 10 launch angle, which will limit his BABIP, but his .309 BABIP last year was low given how hard he hits the ball and his sprint speed. This should in theory pull his average up a bit, the only category he can hurt you. Little blurb from Grey at Razzball: He averaged 225 feet on his fly balls last year, which was the 2nd best for a launch angle in the top ten, only coming in 2nd to Mike Trout. Biggio could hit 30 homers easily, but feels like a lock for 24-plus. Finally, his speed- Biggio was only caught stealing once in 20 tries in 2019 (5/6 in AAA, 14/14 in MLB), and will be in a place where opportunities for steals will be in abundance, because, honestly, what else are the Jays doing? They’re at least two years away, so they’ll give their young players lots of at-bats and opportunities to prove themselves on the basepaths. Not getting caught will only enhance Biggio’s chances, which is great for us. For 2020, I’ll give Cavan Biggio projections of 71/25/78/.246/20 in 571 ABs with a chance for more. I personally think Grey's run projection above is too low, as Biggio had 66 runs in 100 games. This is a 162 game pace of 107.. Biggio has a legitmate shot at finishing top 60 overall in OBP leagues, and is currently going between 110-125 in drafts. 2B thins out relatively quick, and those in OBP leagues should be looking hard at him anywhere after pick 65-70. I project him at 90/26/72/.250/.358OBP, 22 steals* *For perspective, Altuve is typically the 1st or 2nd 2B off the board, his average season over the past 2 years? 130 games, 88/22/68/.308/.370/13 steals.. Biggio has a legitimate shot to top every single one of those categories except BA, and can be had 6-8 rounds later. I'm in.
  12. As horrible as the first 2 months went for him, just as we were all thinking he was droppable, Albies went off and finished with remarkably consistent numbers to his boom of a 2018 season. Upping his BA from .261 to .295, and his OBP from .305 to .352, this shows that his plate discipline clearly is growing as he matures as a hitter. Walks went up by 35% as well. Because of his atrocious righty/lefty splits, it is hard to feel confident that he is their set in stone leadoff hitter, and I do not believe consistency will ever be his strongsuit. A final line of .290/.355 OBP, 100 runs, 25 HRs, 90 RBIs and 15-20 steals seems fair, as this virtually models last season, which feels repeatable. As much as I love him, his ADP of 35-42 currently is too rich for me, as there have been periods of 4-6 weeks each of the last 2 seasons that he was nearly droppable. If those steals could get up to the 25-30 range, we are then talking a top 30 pick. For me, anything after an ADP of 55 and I would pull the trigger, but I believe a guy who can match all the counting stats ( minus steals) 4-5 rounds later like a DJ LeMahieu brings more value given his ADP, so I will be passing on Albies until we see those steals get up above 20+. Cavan Biggio is another guy going 140+ with the 20-20 upside to warrant passing on Albies in his current ADP range. We know Albies is capable of 25+ steals, just depends if the Braves want it to happen.
  13. If he was to keep up last year's 84 game pace of .317/.379 22HR and 16 SBs, this would have been a 40/30 season. Obviously, this was more than likely unsustainable. In an age where SS is probably the deepest it has been in MLB history, are we thinking he is a 2nd round lock? A recent fantasypros article tells us to hold the brakes a bit. "Tatis Jr. sported a positive .053 differential based on xwOBA, suggesting regression is due and a sophomore slump impending, at least compared to his outstanding rookie campaign, anyway. A 29.6 K% and coupled with just an 8.1 BB%, not to mention an unsustainable .410 BABIP. Still, given this regression, 30/20 should easily be in play here. You guys foresee a sophomore slump, or is he a late 2nd round draft choice with upside?
  14. Benched Drake for Boone, not lookin good over here but we must trudge onwards. I expect 70/30 in Boone’s favor to Ameer, and based on the Vikes season, that should be 20 touches. Let’s ride
  15. This has been part of the question for me here too, Boone or Drake. After fighting over this all day yesterday, as long as Cook or Mattison are out, i am going Boone. The guy actually has more receiving chops than we realize. Played WR in HS, preseason darling back to back years, averaged 4.8YPC this year in preseason on 40+ carries. Carried the rock well last week after Cook went down. His vision was his biggest knock coming out of college and all signs and evidence point to the fact he has matured and grown in this aspect, hitting various cutback lanes last week etc. He also grinds out the "tough" extra few yards, which i think should stabilize the floor a bit here. I pray I am right here. Below is a die-hard Vikes fan who summarizes the Vikes RB situation going into this week. Obviously some bias here but i do think he knows more about his team than we would, nice little 5 min watch.