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Jaw1 last won the day on November 17 2018

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  1. Yeah, I don't have a definitive answer to that. His rookie year TyMont was top of the depth chart and Packers used him a TON before he got injured. Jamaal Williams was #2 on the depth chart and the slightly higher draft capital but he quickly got injured opening door for Jones who looked really good then sprained one MCL came back a few games later and sprained his other MCL (that was like week 16 so effectively ended his season). Then last year he opened the season on a 2-game suspension (stemming from a Marijuana-related arrest; idk the full details but while certainly not a positive doesn't appear on the surface to be a MAJOR red flag) but they eased him back in and looked just as good as he had when healthy the season prior and like he was deserving of more work. A common excuse for him being held back especially with Jamaal Williams being favored at times was due to pass blocking. Eventually, TyMont was traded (conceivably because they felt Jones was ready for a bigger role) and Jones killed it in a larger role until once again he sprained his MCL (the right one, the one he first injured his rookie year) which cost him another 2 games (which was rest of season). Therefore, the suspension may be a sign of some character concerns but it sounds like he may have been held back some due to his pass blocking (IIRC he ended last season graded higher in blocking than Jamaal Williams) but eventually Packers pushed him into a lead role with only an injury (really injuries) holding him back. Lefleur has been talking committee but I think that's easy to say and as evidence in his previous job with Titans, when push comes to shove your going to play who gives you the best chance to win and I think Jones is clearly that guy. Additionally, Jones isn't the type of back who needs 20+ carries as he lead the league in yards per attempt last year so committee isn't necessarily a dirty word since the assumption is he'll get majority of carries and limiting his touches will hopefully help keep him healthy. I don't think Jamaal Williams is any threat to his role (just a bit of a change of pace type to limit Jones' touches) and like I said previously, Dexter Williams (who fell in draft because of character concerns) I think is a more talented runner than Jamaal Williams and Jamaal might struggle to even hold onto the #2 role. The injury concern is what worries me more than his role personally. It isn't pretty but Jamaal Williams has put up decent numbers when filling in although I think Dexter Williams is more talented (although he did have a bit of a mixed preseason) and he'd be my darkhorse option to be most valuable back if Jones went down. I'm typically targeting Jamaal Williams as a handcuff but I'm not paying a premium for him and rostering Dexter (or keeping him on my shortlist in more conventional 10-12 leagues where benches probably aren't big enough for him) who I think is flying a bit under the radar atm and I'm probably in the minority in viewing him as the backup to own (I concede Williams is surer/safer bet but given their relative prices and upside I like Dexter more).
  2. Incomplete data, I'd assume Hill may not have taken place in the combine drills they use to derive that metric. Those numbers shouldn't be taken as gospel just as a rough barometer that allows you to compare the relative athletic profile of different players. I think its helpful in finding breakout candidates (like it has helped put guys like George Kittle who I didn't know about coming out of college on to my radar) since generally the more athletic a player is the higher their "upside". Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule, athleticism is only 1 aspect of football and particularly at a position like TE (historically, things have been changing over past few years as NFL has gone pass happy and athletic, primarily receiving TEs have flourished) having an elite 40 time (or another athletic measurement) isn't that valuable especially if the player lacks some of the more vital aspects of being a TE like being a blocker which prohibits them from even seeing the field (like Mike Gesiciki in Miami). With RBs athleticism seems to be a bit dependent on the system and even then isn't the end all and be all. Arian Foster being a contemporary example of a guy who tested extremely poorly athletically becoming a great RB. Obviously, speed is typically never a bad thing (unless you use it in the wrong way or try to bump runs outside or go for the homerun all the time) to have. EDIT: Not sure why but it looks like he didn't participate in 3 cone drill, or 20 or 60 yard shuttle drills.
  3. I admitted LaMichael James wasn't a great comp it was more so to just prove a general point. I don't think anyone is questioning Justice Hill's athletic ability which is all burst score is a measure of (specifically I think their vertical and broad jump), he is undoubtedly a special athlete even by NFL standards. This gives him a very high upside and nobody thought Kamara would be half the player he turned out to be his rookie year but that's an awfully high standard to reach. Bench and squat numbers while measures of strength don't really mirror anything RBs do on a consistent basis. His burst score which shows a level of explosiveness sound more relevant than his squat or bench press numbers. That being said there are plenty of tremendous athletes buried on depth charts (high burst score might equal human joystick but human joystick doesn't necessarily equal a great NFL RB although its clearly not a bad attribute to have). The biggest difference between Hill and Kamara that makes it tough to see Hill being as good of an NFL player is his BMI. Because of his quickness, explosiveness and speed many people think Kamara is a lot smaller than he actually is at like 5ft 10in and 215lbs. He has a BMI (height weight ratio that's typically used as a proxy to estimate a RBs durability) higher than guys like Zeke, Marshawn Lynch, Gurley and at least imo a lot of people think of Kamara as more of a scatback that isn't big enough to be a 3 down workhorse and hold up under that workload. Justice Hill is that scatback sized guy with a 14th percentile BMI (Kamara is 60%). This isn't an indictment that he can't be a very good football player but it does raise legitimate red flags about his ability to handle 15+ carries and hold up over the course of the season. Luckily given his speed and explosiveness Hill doesn't need a ton of carries in order to return substantial fantasy value especially at his price tag but even if he is a better athlete than Kamara its much more difficult to imagine him becoming a RB1 like Kamara because he'll have to have freakishly high efficiency (like Kamara did in year 1) since he isn't likely to be able to sustain a heavy workload.
  4. Didn't see him play but given the numbers (even though its pre-season and week 4 of preseason at that where its mostly guys who are on roster bubble playing), price, his history and Pats being a fairly decent fantasy situation definitely worth a stab in some leagues. For those who watched some of the game or saw him play how did he look? I can't get over how bad and old he looked last year with Broncos so I thought an achilles would be pretty much the end of his career at least as a relevant WR.
  5. I'm not clairvoyant so I'm not willing to talk in certainties but Cook definitely seems at heightened injury risk which in addition to Mattison's talent and the Viking's offense definitely makes Mattison an attractive add and stash. It isn't difficult to envision a situation where Cook gets injured and Mattison takes over. I do think it'll take an injury for Mattison to do that however, I don't see him outplaying or carving out significant value with Cook healthy. I guess not far removed from Murray and McKinnon both being relevant but idk if I necessarily see that type of partnership arising (although I don't dismiss it as a possibility).
  6. My comment there was a bit tongue-in cheek. Like I admitted, Jamaal Charles is probably a more apt comparison than Reggie Bush. The player comps seem quite algorithmic and scientific, have you seen Kelvin Benjamin's comp? /s. Yes, in the strictest sense and if people are being reasonable. However, people often act irrationally especially if it conforms with their preconceived notions. I think a more balanced approach would to show not only a successful player with a similar athletic profile as Justice Hill like Jamaal Charles which represents the upside available but also a player with a similar athletic profile and who may have been even more highly regarded out of college who didn't have a successful NFL career to show how things may not work for Justice Hill. Just highlighting Jamaal Charles puts a spotlight on the promising side of things without highlighting the sobering reality that a vast majority of players with relatively similar make-up are a far cry from Charles. While this is obvious to a reasonable person, once again, I guess I have a less optimistic outlook on the rationality of people (I won't even necessarily say the majority of people are inherently unreasonable but the ones who are tend to be disproportionately vocal).
  7. You cut out the part where it says Justice Hill's best comparable is Reggie Bush 😉. Reggie Bush's best comparable is Jamaal Charles though so it's kind of trivial. This is strictly a physical, athletic comparison and says nothing about their football ability however, so its a little disingenuous (you picked two great athletes that also were great football players) especially since there are countless combine heroes who have amounted to nothing. I don't deny Justice Hill is in impressive athletic tier, that's part of what makes him an attractive option but great athlete doesn't directly translate into great football player particularly at the RB position. I'm not as familiar with how Jamaal Charles looked coming out of college but Reggie Bush (and as evidence by his draft capital) was regarded as not just an elite athlete but a potentially elite RB talent. From this point of view Jamaal Charles might be a more apt comparison holistically but just cause they profiled similarly out of college that doesn't inherently mean their professional careers will go the same way. Still, I think this is emblematic of Hill's upside and a source of the hype and how it has some merit to it. LaMichael James is the first name that pops in my head but I'm sure there are many more and much more comparable guys that fit this similar ultra athletic, smaller/low BMI RB profile even ones with significant draft capital like LaMichael James who didn't do much of anything in the pros and if you listed all the guys that fits this profile Jamaal Charles and Reggie Bush would be 2 of the best pros on the list (so using them is a bit biased when the comparison is strictly on physical and athletic level and a lot more guys have fit that profile over the years.).
  8. I don't think Justice Hill is real lead back material especially in today's NFL where even guys who probably have the ability to play all 3 downs no longer are to keep them fresh, healthy, and to get a specialist in for them in certain situations. Reggie Bush has been the popular comparison but I think its quite generous as Reggie Bush was a generational talent and while Hill's a similar tiered athlete with that track speed I don't think he is nearly the same caliber football player Reggie Bush was coming out of college and looking at the tape he doesn't use that athleticism as effectively as Bush did (due to not being as good of a football player). The biggest difference between the two is their receiving ability which is night and day imo. This is not to say I think Hill is a scrub but the Reggie Bush comparison is a bit optimistic and a bit of an ideal of the type of player Hill could develop into as he excels at similar things (with the caveat of receiving ability where I think Bush was elite and while Hill shows potential in this area and is probably better than his college stats indicate I don't see him ever being Bush level). The hype with Hill is geared around his athleticism and big play potential amplified by his landing spot in a run heavy team like the Ravens where its easy to see him carving out a consistent role given the different skill set he brings to that backfield and given his big play potential he doesn't need that many touches before he starts being very intriguing. Given he is sharing the backfield with Ingram there is a natural tendency to see what happened recently with Ingram and Kamara in New Orleans and say Justice Hill could be the Kamara and that's where I think the hype starts to get a bit out of control. Sure this is technically a possibility but its ignoring the polar opposites that are a Drew Brees lead New Orleans offense and Lamar Jackson lead Ravens offense and while few predicted it just how good Kamara is so it strikes me as a fairly irrational connection to make but that irrationality is what drives hype trains and like always there is always a little bit of truth buried in that hype.
  9. We've heard this story before. It's frustrating for A.Jones' fantasy stock that he's effectively back to square 1 but I think he's the much better talent than Williams and given the offense and his high ypc he doesn't need to be a 20+ carry per game 3 down workhorse to be valuable. In fact you don't even really want him to be that guy given his health history. I think if you look at the tape it's night and day between Jamaal and Jones. His only "saving grace" was his pass blocking chops and I think that was even exaggerated especially relative to Jones who I think at least at one point was grading out as a better blocker than Williams. If there is a Williams to be worried about it would be rookie Dexter Williams who I think is better than Jamaal and will leap him on the depth chart eventually.
  10. I can't deny Edwards played very well once Lamar Jackson took over however, bringing in Ingram and spending a 4th rounder on Hill doesn't appear on the surface to be exactly a vote of confidence in him. I also, don't think he's more talented than the 2 backs they brought in and his production was very much a product of the scheme/playcalling and probably in part because teams (like I'm probably guilty of right now) underestimating him and focusing on the more headline catching LJax. Ravens were definitely an extremely run-heavy side last season and I expect them to be among the league leaders in the category again but I don't think QB carries are directly replaceable by RB carries (completely different personnel) and the difference between them and the Seahawks is largely due to LJax averaging like 17 carries per game to Wilson's 4. Even so, Justice Hill's skillset is quite different from Edwards and Ingram so I feel like Edwards will be a more limiting factor on Ingram (and vice-versa) than Hill who brings a different dynamic entirely. I agree LJax isn't going to be dropping back and slinging it 40+ times per game or running it like he did last year and Ravens will be among league leaders in rushing but its guess work to try to guess with any meaningful degree of confidence in how the carries will be split up. As you point out there is potentially a lot of work here for multiple RBs to produce value especially given Hill's skill set he doesn't need a lot of touches to put up big numbers so it isn't purely a zero-sum game. Therefore I look at the talent where I think Edwards is the least talented of the bunch and the one with the most limited skill set of the group. That factored with the Ravens feeling the need to commit significant resources to bring in 2 other RBs doesn't seem to indicate that they are confident Edwards is "their guy" or the one to lead the backfield. Regardless this is a Justice Hill thread and imo Edwards isn't really a threat to Hill's role as they are both different style players entirely. I think you raise solid points though and Edwards probably should be getting more love than he's generally receiving from the fantasy community since it isn't a stretch to see him retaining a considerable role and continuing what he showed last season. At his price I think he still represents good value but personally given this is almost certainly going to be a RBBC I usually will side with the RBs less reliant on volume due to receiving ability and big play ability which point in Hill's favor.
  11. I think you make some solid points in the rest of your post however, that's looking at what they did last year. The picks they invested into Brown, Boykins and Hill seems an awful lot to invest (especially all 3 in same draft) for what would amount to luxury players which is sort of the way I interpret your stance on these guys from the above sentence. I think it might show a signal intent of what they want to remake the offense to be more of for this season (and the future). Logically it seems arguably more plausible that while what they did last year worked they felt it wasn't really sustainable and they want to evolve Jackson into more of a passing threat so they invested significant draft capital into these speedy guys in order to help Jackson grow and reach the next stage in an offense that'll definitely keep parts of what worked last year but aim to incorporate a certain more dynamic quick hitting aspect too. The juxtaposition of the two makes both more effective and ultimately the entire offense in theory more effective. To this end I don't see why Edwards would have to play a major role in this as he seems like a more limited version of Ingram. Ingram can still be that interior runner off the read option and Hill would bring a completely different style to the backfield in a change of pace role. Edwards was the incumbent but they felt he clearly wasn't enough so they went and got Ingram and then even after that they felt the need to spend a 4th on Hill after already spending a 1st and 3rd on the offense. Especially given Dixon was a bit of a darling not long ago it seems surprising they'd draft Hill if Edwards and Ingram were going to dominate the backfield touches. Surely Dixon would've been sufficient to play that quick offense RB role especially if it would save a 4th round pick (and potentially cost him his roster spot to draft Hill).
  12. I agree its tough to gauge and I think a convincing argument could be made for any of these guys to be first and for some drop them out of the group entirely. Aaron Jones: I think he has one of the higher upsides of the group given his talent and him looking very much like a RB1 when Packers finally seemed to trust him after dealing away Ty Mont. This is in a year where Rodgers didn't really look himself as he was hobbling around on one leg so with a healthy Rodgers and the offense fully humming the value is really there as it typically has for whomever happens to be Rodger's RB (and I think Jones is one of the more talented ones he's had). The major issue with him though is his knees as he's not been able to stay healthy when GB has attempted to try to lean on him as a true lead back. Luckily he doesn't need a ton of touches to put up strong numbers so finding the right balance mixing in the other backs might actually be a good thing if it keeps him healthy. I don't think Jamaal Williams is good (certainly not as Jones or even the new rookie) and personally expect Dexter Williams to overtake him for the #2 job at some point this season. Damian Williams: Also, one of the highest upsides of the group because of the offense he is and what he showed last season. There is an innate skepticism because he is a late bloomer as far as his career trajectory and the fact the average person probably didn't even really know who he was until Kareem Hunt was waived especially since Spencer Ware was kind of the initial favorite. I'm not sure he's as talented overall as Aaron Jones (particularly as a pure runner) but he's dangerous in space and in this offense he should get plenty of chances to showcase it as he did last year. I was initially fearful of Hyde turning him into a change of pace/3rd down back but looks like Hyde may not even be on the roster soon and Darwin Thompson is the one to be fearful of. Given Thompson's size he isn't likely to turn into a 3-down workhorse though so Damian Williams would likely still have some value and I think that risk is properly shown in his price. Leonard Fournette: A bit mercurial given his injury history (I think out injured like 7 games in his final collegiate season, 3 his rookie year and 7 +1 via suspension last year). If there is a silver lining its that his injuries last year were soft-tissue hamstring injuries and not directly associated with the often touted "chronic" ankle issues that plagued him in college. Not sure if it makes it better or worse but it wasn't like he had one major ankle injury that required surgery and held him out for weeks but niggling injuries where he was in and out of the squad week to week. Still I think his injury history is a bit overblown and when healthy his profiles as a clear 3 down workhorse in an offense that's largely geared around him giving him a high touch total. Lessening the risk (similar to last year with Yeldon who filled in for him and gave high end-RB2 numbers) Armstead looks like a similar styled player who might be able to step in and give RB2 numbers. Also, need to factor that Foles on the surface seems a better QB than Bortles was so his supporting offense might be better than it was in the past even though Bortles' ineptitude didn't directly prevent him from putting up good numbers as his volume made up for lack of efficiency. Chris Carson: Not a sexy player but if you watch the Seahawks play he is critical to their success and at this time there seems no reason for them to go away with what worked last year. I view him as more of a high floor lower ceiling type guy in this group. Plenty of carries are there for him even with Penny getting more work thanks to Mike Davis' departure. Penny is probably more likely to see more of the receiving work and while not out of the question for Penny to jump him I think he clearly outperformed Penny last year from training camp to throughout the year (with the odds not really in his favor given Penny's draft stock) and even if Penny does I think there will be plenty of carries left in the backfield for Carson to still return value possibly even as a RB2. I think the big concern is that this guy runs a little too violently (which is fun to watch) which makes him seemingly prone to miss a game or two which does leave the door open for Penny too. Josh Jacobs: He is an "unproven rookie" and carries a little more "unknown" risk because most are touting him as a 3 down workhorse despite him not serving this role in college. Looking at his tape he certainly looks capable of being a 3 down workhorse (Alabama RBs of course have a certain reputation for not being nearly as good of pros as they looked in college since their Alabama teams often have more talent especially relative to competition than some NFL teams) but he wasn't actually used as a 3 down workhorse at Alabama, Pats rookie RB Damien Harris was the starter and more productive back with Jacobs providing a complimentary yet more electric role that lead to him profiling as the better pro. Doug Martin threat is no longer there to threaten Jacobs' early down work but I think Jalen Richards could potentially still vulture some touches. Not that bad teams have prevented strong RB performances but Raiders don't profile as the best team especially with Antonio Brown's recent unhinged behavior. There does certainly appear to be a recency bias that is benefitting him given the recent slew of rookie RBs who have become RB1s right away (most notably Barkley last year) however, despite being the #1 RB in this class the class was extremely weak relative to the past few and IMO Jacobs isn't anywhere close to the caliber of guys like Barkley, Guice, Fournette, Zeke, Chubb, ect that have spoiled us in recent years. Derrick Henry: Speaking of recency bias and Alabama RBs Henry is a physical specimen who was a monster down the stretch last year and I don't think anybody doubted he had that type of dominance in him the issue has largely been he has very inconsistently shown it. In fact he has very often been pathetically easy to go down and be tackled for his size. Maybe something clicked in Henry in those last few games and he'll continue it going into next season where his supporting cast can only get better than last year particularly at the QB position. One thing he doesn't do is receive passes so he is quite vulnerable to game script unlike a lot of the other RBs in this tier. David Montgomery: IMO nothing about him jumps off the page and like Jacobs I think he benefits from the recent success of previous RB classes and being one of the better backs in a weak RB class but Bears clearly believed in him as they traded up to get him even after signing Mike Davis. Despite having a 3 down skill set Tarik Cohen likely to continue to dominate the receiving work so Montgomery is "stuck" to the Jordan Howard role. Assuming he can hold off Mike Davis that role seems plenty to give him RB2 value and given Montgomery's skill set being a bit more versatile he could cut into Cohen's receiving work more than Howard did an be a high-end RB2. Personally, I would probably put the first 4 in their own tier and the last 3 (Jacobs, Henry and Montgomery) in a slightly lower tier. Kerryon Johnson (I view him similarly to Aaron Jones as a talented player who may see his workload limited due to injury concerns albeit in a fairly weaker offense lowering his upside), Devonta Freeman (significant injury risk but is in a very attractive offense and could reasonably put up RB1 numbers like he has not too long ago, although a few considerable knee injuries ago, if he can stay healthy), and Sony Michel (his knees really scare me but looked like a borderline RB1 last year once he got up to speed and was healthy, Damien Harris isn't a threat to take his job imo but can be a thorn in his side) I think deserve significant consideration to be part of this tier. Prior to Luck's retirement I would've had Mack up with Jones and Williams at the top of this tier but I think it cuts his upside enough that he probably isn't suited for this tier especially given the uncertainty surround his passing game role. I think he is still one of the surer bets outside of these guys since he should see a fairly decent workload, the Colts o-line is very good and while not remotely close to Luck's level I think Brissett could be a solid enough starter to keep the offense moving (I don't think he is in the bottom 5 of worst starting QBs in the league).
  13. The upside definitely isn't great but the risk is extremely low because he's probably free (in fact I may not even consider him except for deeper leagues since his upside does seem fairly bleak). He doesn't seem like any sort of special talent but it doesn't take much to look better than Barber last year and the hope he gets dump off passes underneath is probably more attractive than any potential carries. Arian's squeezed some decent numbers out of Ellington so maybe there is an outside shot he can do similar with this dude.
  14. This sounds like Dolphins wanting to offload him and doesn't necessarily indicate Texans have any interest in acquiring him. I mean at a high level he is a RB and they lost Miller who was a RB so it could make sense at that really high level but Duke Johnson and Drake profile as roughly similar RBs. You would figure they'd want more of an early down power back to get those tough short yards (and they sure are tough with that o-line) to complement Duke but for the right price maybe Houston thinks Duke and Drake together can be dynamic enough elsewhere to make up for that. I guess Miller wasn't even really in that true power back vein either so I guess isn't that big of a stretch. Personally I think Duke and Drake roughly equal talent wise so I'd imagine if they did end up together it would be a roughly even split. Idk who is the better pass blocker or who would be the better GL back but with Duke shorter and stouter I'd assume he would get the first crack at GL (they are about same weight but Duke is several inches shorter). On the surface given Texans offense is a major upgrade over Dolphins you would have to expect it to largely increase Drake's value if he ended up there and the mere speculation of him going there should prop his value up some. The reality would depend on his role there however it isn't like his role is clear/secure in Miami in the first place. In fact that they are open to moving him slightly indicates they don't view him as a major part of their plans (he's in a contract year and Dolphins will likely be horrible with or without him so I can see why they might want to try to cash-in if they can).
  15. The way I see it Mattison will struggle to carve out top 40 RB value while Cook is healthy (I think Cook is the more talented runner and receiver and Mattison struggled to break big plays in college so he likely won't be too productive w/o decent volume) and very slim odds to straight up jump him on the depth chart. However, given that I think he's a solid RB who can do a little bit of everything and the Vikings are higher-end offense I think he could be a RB2 if Cook gets hurt. However, when Cook gets healthy again I think it minimally turns in to a RBBC likely with majority of touches going back to Cook as I think he's still the better talent so Mattison's "reign" is likely to be short lived. Singletary on the other hand I think is overall not considerably more talented as a RB than Mattison but could conceivably work his way to the top of the depth chart without even needing an injury to occur to McCoy (who could potentially be traded/cut) or Gore. They are obviously old as well so Singletary figures to get his chance sooner rather than later. The counter to that though is even if Singletary becomes the top RB on the depth chart the Bills offense isn't nearly as attractive as the Vikings offense especially given Josh Allen seemed to want to run a lot in the RZ and around the GL last season. Even if McCoy and Gore were pretty much completely out of the picture and Singletary got a majority of the RB snaps I'm not convinced his ceiling is all that high. In other words I think Mattison has the higher fantasy upside but Singletary the higher floor and the easier road to a starting RB role albeit on an inferior team from a fantasy perspective. In most of the rookie drafts I've had across my dynasty leagues Singletary seems fairly unanimously valued higher since the pathway to him becoming a starter is much easier to visualize (aka better opportunity) where Mattison has Cook ahead of him and even if Cook gets injured and even though I think Mattison has a 3 down skill set its not a given he's used in that capacity if Cook goes down. Boone has been lighting it up this preseason and Abdullah has that high draft pedigree that maybe he finally capitalizes on if given a chance.