En Votto Veritas

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  1. Items that stand out on a semi-deeper look: 1st Half: 10.8% BB%, 20.4% K%, .315 BABIP, 2.1% IFFB%, 0.9% IFH%, 10.9% soft% 2nd Half: 14.2% BB%, 17.3% K%, .241 BABIP, 13.3% IFFB%, 7.6% IFH%, 17.2% soft% So he walked more, struck out less, got pretty unlucky, but hit the ball softer. His HR/FB crashed too from 28.4% to 16.7%. Just looks like he was on another level, one that couldn't be sustained, and regression to the mean hit hard. At the end of the first half he was on pace for like 50 HR, 150 RBIs so he was bound to fall back to earth. .275/.365 - 30 - 100 - 80 - 0 seems very doable. Basically Jose Abreu with more walks and a better OBP. I think Bell has better power than Abreu as well, though Abreu has a much better surrounding lineup and will likely get more RBI+R.
  2. 👍 Leading off in front of Polanco, Cruz, Donaldson, Rosario, Garver, Arraez, Sano, Buxton? 10% BB%, 16% K%, .340 OBP? There's 100 runs. 20-35 HRs? 75 RBIs? .244 BABIP should rise a bit. Toss in a handful of SBs... .260/.340 - 25 - 75 - 110 - 5 seems like a rather reasonable projection to me, with room in the HRs and RBIs. And at #144 that's a steal. The only issue is if Arraez, who is an on-base machine, gets bumped up to leadoff at some point.
  3. The uncertainty associated with him makes me want to pass at #132 (13th 2B off the board by NFC ADP). Newman is sitting there at #195 and has a high floor, ol' Cesar Hernandez is hiding at #283, and Segura will be 2B this year and can be had at #186. None of them have the raw power, but Biggio K'd at nearly 30% and if the ball isn't juiced, who knows? A line of .240/.340 - 15 - 65 - 90 - 15 doesn't look great in the 10th round. Cesar Hernandez can do that and add 30 points to the BA. 🤷‍♂️
  4. 2019 1st half: 97 IP, 5.01 ERA, 5.31 FIP, 10.30 K/9, 4.55 BB/9, 1.86 HR/9, 1.34 WHIP 2019 2nd half: 81.2 IP, 2.76 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 13 K/9, 0.77 BB/9, 1.43 HR/9, 0.81 WHIP I don't see any huge discrepancies in the subtler stats, so it looks like a control issue. He just locked down his walks and cut down the HRs.
  5. I do too, but will the playing time be there? He's basically platooning with Pujols at 1B and Fletcher at 2B, though Fletcher could see some time in RF. Most projections have him at less than 450 ABs... but yeah, the price is right at the moment (#281) and if he should end up leading off all year then .285/.340 - 20 - 60 - 100 here we come.
  6. Buy: Jose Ramirez, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Luis Severino, Bo Bichette, Mike Soroka, Trey Mancini, Andrew Benintendi, Josh Donaldson, Zach Wheeler, Edwin Diaz. Fade: Javy Baez, Keston Hiura, Fernando Tatis Jr, Jonathan Villar, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Luis Robert, Yuli Guerriel, Danny Santana.
  7. Personally I'm not buying Gallegos and I love buying middle relievers. He doesn't walk a lot of guys which is great but his K rate isn't amazing and his price is way too high. I mean you can pick up Pressly, J James, Munoz, Betances, Clase, Ginkel, Poche, Castillo, Pomeranz, etc... for next to nothing or for literally nothing. Why pay mid-round price for a mid-RP who may or may not close, and if he does, may or may not be good?
  8. All the sites and experts certainly seem to think Gallegos will close should CMart get injured or move to the rotation. Gant could be a darkhorse though I'm not sold on his stuff and his second half left a lot to be desired. Then there's Andrew Miller who was gold for years but had a couple rough seasons (surge in BABIP, falling LOB%, surge in Hard%) but still suppresses HRs and could turn it around. Also Hicks should be back at some point later in the season no?
  9. NFBC #106 isn't that much of a discount. His low of #162 is, so it's a wait and see how this unfolds and where he turns up in each individual draft. I'd pass on Carrasco for Wheeler/Fried/Hendricks who are currently going later, but I'd take him over Urias/Boyd/Minor, so that puts me buying around #145.
  10. 2019 rookie season: 13-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.45 FIP, 7.32 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 51.2% GB% Amazing season from a former first round pick, acknowledged with an All Star appearence, 2nd ballot Rookie of the Year, and 6th in Cy Young voting. I watched him pitch in SF and he carved up a terrible lineup like he was bored. Giants announcers had very positive things to say (mature pitcher, Maddux-esque). And yet, Steamer has him projected for serious regression: 4.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.08 FIP, 1.16 HR/9 In 2020 he has Acuna/Albies/Freeman behind him with question marks to follow in the lineup, but the defense should be good with Inciarte back. Can any Braves fans or knowledgeable folks explain this? What can we expect from the young ATL ace? FanGraphs
  11. Just for clarification, my comp to Urias was in regards to the similarities in age, hit tool, prospect pedigree, and projections. I feel like if you want to "project" Hiura to lower his K% and thereby maintain a decent BA, then you should extend the same projection to Urias. That's all. As to the hard hit %, that list is littered with very low BA players. Sano, Gallo, Ianetta, Schwarber, Franmil... No one is saying Hiura's power projection is off base, he will definitely mash 25+ bombs. The point is his BA is a liability and that is not being accounted for in the price. All I was saying is the hype is serious, the price is high, and I feel like you can get better value in the 3rd round---more surefire floor and solidity than a second year player who strikes out 1/3 of the time and is destined for BABIP regress.
  12. I like Hiura a lot, but the value seems crazy inflated right now. 2019 .402 BABIP 😮 2019 30.7% K% 🤢 It may be, as folks have mentioned, that his K rate normalizes and his A+ hit tool is on display, but the same could be said for Luis Urias. In fact: Hiura (age 23): Hit 50/60, GamePower 45/60, RawPower 60/60, Speed 45/45, FutureValue 60 Urias (age 22): Hit 50/65, GamePower 40/45, RawPower 20/35, Speed 50/50, FutureValue 55 Definite difference in raw power and game power, but the rest is awful similar. Also Urias has a significantly lower K% and a higher BB%. So if we believe Hiura can normalize, then why don't we believe Urias can as well (who is being drafted #300)? I'm not trying to say that they are the same player or should be drafted as such, Urias is batting 9th while Hiura is 4th, and the power discrepancy is serious. But Hiura at #43 right around K Marte, Albies, 20 spots ahead of LeMahieu, 70 spots ahead of Escobar, and 140 ahead of Segura, seems way off base. Nothing against the guy, just not my draft style. Too expensive for too many question marks in a 3rd round pick. 🤷‍♂️
  13. I'm less confident about playing time at the moment but I intend to keep an eye on the situation. Odor is always on the verge of being terrible. Frazier is a career .243 hitter and will platoon at 1B against lefties, leaving 3B open for Solak. Solak could also find time in the OF I guess, but Gallo/Santana/Calhoun looks decent. So it looks like unless Ordor or Frazier s**** the bed, Solak is left on the short side of a platoon. Bummer, because I really like his potential.
  14. This. Kluber's 162 game average season is: 16-10, 3.16 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9. Those are almost Kershaw numbers. ADP is currently #88, with a low of #124. I'm buying at the current price, but if he can fall beyond 100 there's huge value here. I mean Paxton is only 2 years younger and has a much larger injury history and people seem pretty confident with him at #92. Not seeing the logic there.
  15. Well the Frazier signing for Texas means that Solak looks like a bench/utility bat, and likely won't garner enough ABs to merit fantasy value. I mean, with Choo at DH, Frazier at 3B, and Gallo/Santana/Calhoun in the OF, I don't see 400+ ABs for Solak unless an injury should befall one of the above, or a terrible drop in production. Bummer.