En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. What would the lineup look like with Lindor hitting 3rd? Mercado-JoRam-Lindor-Santana-Franmil? Mercado-Hernandez-Lindor-JoRam-Santana?
  2. Early 2020 sleeper mid-RP: Dellin Betances (RP - NYM). Career 14.64% K%, 2.36 ERA, 1.04 WHIP. Throws a hard four-seamer usually in the high 90s which he pairs with a curve and slider. Injury last season was to his achilles, nothing related to his arm, and he slots in before Lugo and Diaz in the pecking order. ADP is #369, so free, but in HLDs leagues or SV+HLD he may go before the last round. 60 IP: 2.75 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 75 K is very doable IMO with room in the Ks. Should get 20+ HLDs pretty easily.
  3. Small sample size but Schwarber really, really likes hitting 4th. 4th (68 PA): .393/.441/.787 - 25% K% - 8.8% BB% - .393 ISO - .475 BABIP Everywhere else (1816 PA): .229/.336/.478 - 28% K% - 12.1% BB% - .249 ISO - .264 BABIP There's no way he maintains that BABIP or those ridiculous numbers, but he seems to performs better. With the Cubs announcing that the top 2 will be Bryant/Rizzo, it seems likely Baez will hit 3rd and Schwarber 4th. He won't hit .300, but he may get to .260 - 35 - 100 - 90 with room in the HRs and RBIs which is pretty nice at #147. He's going around Framil, Dahl, Kepler, Tucker, and I'd be inclined to draft him over all of them.
  4. I'm buying Buster this year for sure and .300 is doable but dude has hit 7, 5, 12, 14, and 19 HR, over the past 5 seasons beginning last year. He has only hit more than 20 HRs twice in 9 seasons. Love the boldness of this call.
  5. I don't see the bullpen taking a lot of wins from DeGrom, 15 seems very doable this season. 9th inning - Diaz. Dude is filthy and suffered from a very weird HR/FB issue last season. 8th inning - Lugo. Converted starter, stats as RP: 178 IP, 2.52 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 28.3% K%. Absolute filth. 7th inning - Betances. Suffered an achilles injury and missed last season. Career filth thrower: 14.64 K%, 2.36 ERA/1.04 WHIP. Mid innings - Familia. Solid middle reliever (career 3.16 ERA/1.29 WHIP) who saw his HR/FB and HR/9 double last year. Has some control issues but he's 4th in the pecking order. Wilson. Solid (career 3.25/1.27) oddly very similar pitcher to Familia it seems. Brach/Zamora/Gsellman are there as well. Honestly that's a pretty interesting pen. ZiPS projects for 5 WAR as a group which is pretty good. It's no SD or NYY but it's got huge upside; 7-8-9 could be lights out.
  6. Workman is currently being drafted in the middle of a big clump of closers from ~#130 to ~#170. In forty picks we see the likes of Giles, Kimbrel, Smith, Iglesias, Colome, Robles, Workman, and Leclerc go off the board. Pagan, Bradley, Cmart, Kennedy, and Doolittle go in the next thirty picks. (Doolittle looks like good value here btw). I think Workman belongs in the latter bunch alongside a guy like Bradley or Kennedy. As others have mentioned he has a ton of issues that make me very unconvinced he will repeat. I'd much rather grab Giles, Kimbrel, Robles, or Leclerc. If I missed on all these guys I'd go for super secure mid-RPs (N Anderson, Gallegos, Pressly, Lugo) instead of chasing saves with crappy ratios.
  7. There may not have been a thread because 30-30 is in the bank and everything else is gravy. He's a consensus top 3, if not a consensus top pick. .280/.360 - 30 - 90 - 100 - 30 looks like the floor, which is silly. Hard to predict how high he'll fly, though 50-50 seems like a pipe dream to me.
  8. He's basically Victor Robles lite. Steamer Robles: 609 PA, .262/.326 - 17 - 71 - 71 - 27 (6.4% BB, 21% K) Steamer Reyes: 522 PA, .273/.308 - 10 - 51 - 58 - 15 (4.5% BB, 19% K) Good value late in the draft.
  9. Too many Ks, too many ground balls. Both are fixable issues and the kid is young, has a guaranteed starting job, and is crazy talented. Deeper leagues he's a flier for a bench spot, shallow leagues he's a watch list guy. Keeper/dynasty I would expect him to be owned though his price may be deflated at the moment.
  10. Oh, and Joey Votto punches father time right in his wrinkly old face and goes .300 - 25 - 90 - 110 - 5, leading the Reds to the playoffs with his performance and everlasting charm.
  11. Christian Walker (1B - ARI) finishes as the #3 first baseman in standard 5x5 fantasy behind Bellinger/Freeman. He does so by cutting his K% and going .280 - 35 - 130 - 100. On a related note, Ketel Marte becomes the top 2B in fantasy in all formats. He shows no weaknesses and puts up a line of .300 - 30 - 100 - 110 - 15. In spite of these two amazing performances and Marte/Escobar/Peralta being very solid, the D-Backs fail to make the playoffs as their bullpen implodes and starters can't seem to string enough quality outings together to generate momentum.
  12. He had a BABIP/AVG/OBP of: 2017: .328/.279/.384 2018: .289/.243/.350 2019: .290/.257/.363 Looks like they move in tandem. I'm not sure how one raises one's BABIP, but if it jumps at all then he becomes a rock solid 4-tool player in standard 5x5.
  13. Just for funsies: Matt Chapman (ADP 88), .257, 34 HR, 95 R, 97 RBI, 3 SB. Or better still: Josh Donaldson (ADP 99), .267, 36 HR, 100 R, 103 RBI, 4 SB. Or if we really want to do it: Justin Turner (ADP 168!), .281, 26 HR, 86 R, 85 RBI, 3 SB Vlad Jr (ADP 57), .295, 25 HR, 86 R, 87 RBI, 3 SB
  14. I love this guy, amazing control, but the IP limit is going to hurt his value for most leagues. He threw around 110 innings total in 2019 across 3 levels, and around 80 innings total in 2018 over 3 levels. 150 IP seems like the max for 2020?
  15. Everyone is betting on Nick Anderson but despite his amazing performance he got zero (0) save chances last year. On the other hand, Castillo and Alvarado both got many opps and both have filthy stuff. I love Anderson as a guy to add Ks and bring down ratios, but betting on him being the closer in TB is the definition of chasing saves. A guy like Betances could return Anderson K/ERA/WHIP and is basically free in almost all leagues.
  16. 26 yrs old, leading off with Mercado/Santana/JoRam/Framil behind, 162 game avg of .288/.347 - 29 - 87 - 108 - 21. That's the floor. .290/.350 - 30 - 85 - 110 - 25 is very reasonable and achievable with room all around. I see him as the clear 6th best hitter on the board. Whether or not you want him 6th depends on how you value SPs that early (Cole/DeGrom) and how you feel about Story. As to him vs. Story, Lindor has better plate discipline and has played with a more reasonable BABIP (so I see less chance of regression).
  17. LaStella will get time at 1B and Fletcher will be at 2B. Other than that he'll fill in the OF whenever Upton needs a day off or if Joc is sitting due to a platoon split. Yeah, hard to see 500 ABs but he'll definitely be in the super-utility role.
  18. I'm all in. This is the floor: 542 PA, .255/.327 - 23 - 83 - 68 - 24, 13.7% K%, 9.6% BB%, .256 BABIP (<- last year's #s) Dude's hard contact % has increased every year since 2015. Posts elite K/BB and shows great plate discipline. Over 3k career plate appearances, his avg line is: .280/.351 - 23 - 82 - 95 - 25. I'll take that in the second round all day. He has top 3 potential.
  19. Everything you say is true, and indeed it is a matter of preference, but I think the sample size outweighs the Statcast numbers. Many players have come out hot like Hiura, backed by Statcast numbers and all, only to fade quickly. Far fewer have done what Albies has. But yes, arguments can and will be made both ways. Something that I can't figure out is why Bichette is 30 spots behind these two...
  20. I think you have to go Albies > Hiura in a dynasty. Albies has 1630 MLB ABs under his belt with a clean 16.2% K%. His BABIP over this period is low at .307. He's hit .279/.332 which has room to grow. Hiura has a mere 348 MLB ABs with a terrible 30.7% K%. His BABIP is unsustainable at .402. He's hit .303/.368 which should come down to earth. They are the same age. Whether or not they had similar prospect profiles, Albies has consistently shown his ability against MLB pitching while Hiura has not.
  21. I agree entirely. The issue for me early was playing time, but looking it over there's not a whole lot of other 3B options for the Rays. Wendle and Robertson are it and neither offer the consistent power/line-drive bat that Yandy does. 100 RBIs and 90 Rs are there for the taking with a full season. I think he's a great sleeper.
  22. Bummer for Josh Rojas who has literally no path to playing time now. On the other hand, Dbacks lineup is looking rather solid from start to finish.
  23. BUY: Joey Votto (1B - CIN) Ok not for your starting 1B obviously but for a UTIL spot or definitely a CI spot he should handily outperform his ADP of #261. Steamer has him for .270/.382 - 23 - 76 - 91 - 4. He's going to hit 2nd in front of Suarez, Moose, and now Castellanos. 100 runs are practically guaranteed. There will always be talk of his age and the fact that he's had two seasons that left folks wondering, but he gets on base with the best of them and is one of the smartest players in the game. Reds are making a run for it this year and Joey knows what he needs to do. Trust in him. I'll make the call of .280/.400 - 20 - 70 - 110 - 5.
  24. Hard pass. 30% K%, 5% BB% means OBP will be terrible, around .300, AVG should also be mediocre, around .250 as BABIP regresses. Surrounding lineup isn't terrible but isn't great, maybe 90 runs max, 75 RBIs max. Then there's his health which as @meh2 rightfully notes, is pretty unreliable. Or, rather, what is reliable is that he won't play more than 125 games. So .250/.300 - 15 - 75 - 90 - 45 at ADP #39? Maybe, looks like a poor man's Trea Turner. I'll pass for Ketel Marte who is at #44 as this is clearly a case of SB premium. Oh and @Sidearmer is spot on that Villar is sitting at #35 and carries virtually none of the risks mentioned here.
  25. Mallex's AVG is tied to his BABIP: 2016: .238 AVG, .302 BABIP with the Braves 2017: .270 AVG, .347 BABIP with the Rays 2018: .296 AVG, .366 BABIP with the Rays 2019: .227 AVG, .302 BABIP with the Mariners Furthermore, @Cmilne23 is right that his home (.288 AVG, .360 BABIP, 70 SB, 16 CS) road (.229 AVG, .303 BABIP, 48 SB, 18 CS) splits are atrocious. I can't say whether or not his BABIP will rebound, but I agree that he's a cheap source of steals. Beyond that, you're looking at a guy you probably want to bench half the season.