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En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. Depends on the team I guess, but it's something to watch out for. As it stands the MLB is trying for a full season and most people think you take what a guy threw in 2020 and add 100 innings. So a team like the A's/Twins/Nats are looking pretty good in comparison to the Braves or Cardinals.
  2. You are certainly right about his statcast profile. I guess my response is, if his statcast is blue but his stat lines continue to be red, then so what? We aren't playing statcast fantasy baseball, we're playing regular-ol' fantasy baseball. In 2019, subpar statcast and all, he hit .282/.382 - 31 - 77 - 108 - 4. What's not to like there? Yes there is the potential that his 2020 season showed us what his statcast was trying to say all along, and that 2021 will continue on this path and he will flop. But he has no history of doing so, so the risk is not in Bryant being a flop at pick #131,
  3. Your point is well taken. In truth, 2B is not as deep in 2021 as other positions and the cutoff for strong 12-team viable 2B ends around Edman at #131. So if you are concerned about the relative shallow-ness of the position you absolutely will want to secure a 2B earlier rather than later. Personally, if I miss on some earlier 2B targets I like Solak/Madrigal later (hard pass on Hampson); La Stella is a great bat to combo with a Gimenez, say, or a Taylor.
  4. I love the TOR lineup. Not only will it be the most exciting lineup to watch, perhaps in the game, but it is highly competitive against NYY and CWS. The starters have a huge problem, and that is that very few of them will likely throw a full season. Stripling threw 49.1 IP in 2020, so 150 in 2021 is likely his max. Pearson only threw 18 last year so 120 is likely his max. Ray threw 51.2 and is older and has a better history of throwing full seasons, but still you're looking at 160 max. Roark threw 47.2 so 150 max. So that leaves Ryu who himself threw 67 in 2020 so he may get to 180.
  5. Yeah but it's not one for one, is it? Draft value is fluid and fundamentally comparative. By this I mean it's not about "who would you rather have: Albies/Altuve." On the contrary, it's about who would you rather have at their price and who are you leaving behind. So would you rather have Albies/Bohm or Arenado/Altuve? Albies/Swanson or Seager/Altuve? Albies/Moore or Tucker/Altuve? Albies/Goldy or DJL/Altuve? I don't think the OP was saying Altuve will outperform Albies, but given what you can get at Albies' price (Arenado/Seager/Tucker/DJL), Altuve seems comparatively more v
  6. The K%/BB% is true, but the sample size is a mere 34 games. That's barely a fourth of a regular season and he has been extremely consistent in both throughout his career. Consider that, 2020 SSS aside, he's never had a BB% below 10.5% and after his rookie year he posted K%s of 22, 19.2, 23.4, and 22.9. Those numbers over four seasons are clockwork. I fear that Bryant has just become a guy that fantasy managers don't like, and I don't think there's good reason for it. I recall people saying he was injury prone in the past which has proved mostly false and now people are saying he's to
  7. Huge value to be had here. Altuve is another guy I will be targeting heavily should his ADP remain anywhere near it's current #105.
  8. I'm buying all day. If you look at his career, Bryant has never really been bad. Including 2020, where he suffered from a low BABIP while other indicators remained the same, he averages .280/.380 - 31 - 91 - 111 - 7 in a full 162 game season. Those are fantastic numbers deserving of a draft price almost half what it currently is, and there's simply nothing else like that at his current price. He should handsomely outperform his current ADP and, IMO, should be one of the biggest values in this area.
  9. Didn't see it posted here yet: They added Chatwood as well earlier this week.
  10. Real life it's not looking bright, but there are a few fantasy items worth noting. Adam Frazier is dual eligible and a decent deep league bench play, especially in points leagues. Bryan Reynolds could bounce back and be a cheap late round AVG play. As @The Big Bat Theorynoted, Taillon should throw this year and can pad ratios. Jacob Stallings will get everyday playing time and averages a .262/.327 line over his career, so there's a warm body. and... uh... wow I'm looking this over and well, it's not good. I'm not sure Hayes reaches 175 RBI+R this year and with an ADP
  11. Overall I agree but I'm not sure the velocity is that much of an issue. It's not like he needs to gain several MPH on his fastball. In 2018 his FB was 92.4 MPH and he provided 5.5 WAR. In 2017 his FB was 92.9 MPH and he provided 7.2 WAR. Yes it was above 93 before that but it's not like he wasn't effective with a FB in the 92 range. In the limited 2019/2020 seasons it definitely dropped another tick but it didn't fall below 92, and it was only a 36.2 inning sample size due to the injuries. Historically he's either been Cy Young caliber or on the DL. If Kluber is healthy and his fast
  12. Value is there for sure. For those who play in deeper leagues, OBP leagues, or points leagues, the guy has extra value. He hit 40 doubles and 5 triples in 2019 and consistently walks >9%. If he gets the K% down to normal ~20% he could provide very solid value at his current price. I'd be happier if he was dealt somewhere where he could hit in the 2 hole as well.
  13. Great signing by the Yankees. Cole-Kluber-Severino is a very competitive 1-2-3 and this, plus the DJL re-signing, firmly vaults them back into playoff favorites with CWS.
  14. Perennial top 12 pick now going at #34? Yes please all day. If you select his worst numbers in each category over his five full seasons (2015-2019) you get .287 - 37 - 110 - 97 - 2. So that's the floor and oddly enough, if you toss in another 10 RBIs you've found Abreu's ceiling (Abreu is 4 years older as well). Why they are going side by side is a mystery. Huge value to be had here, maybe the biggest value pick in the top 50.
  15. Agreed. Excellent late source of SBs and could be a bit of an "accumulator" as well if he hits in front of Naylor/JoRam/Reyes all year. Steamer has him for .254/.310 - 13 - 60 - 61 - 23 and I'll take over on the runs but the rest looks like a fair call.
  16. I guess I'm fascinated by how projecting a line of .275/.330 - 28 - 83 - 99 - 18 is considered tempered (that's the 40% line with a .275 avg like you said). That line is exactly what I projected in the third post of this thread except -0.10 AVG, -2 HR, -2 RBI, -21 R, and -2 SB. We can agree the difference in HR, RBI, and SB is relatively meaningless, and I'll take the drop in AVG, so why the huge drop in runs? He averages 106 per year in his career... why would he score less hitting in a far more potent lineup?
  17. Really? Over 6 seasons Lindor averages .285/.346 - 29 - 86 - 106 - 21. In those six seasons he was second in Rookie of the Year votes, has 2 silver sluggers, and 4 all-star selections. Statcast is red, he's only 27, and now moves to a better lineup with much better protection. What needs tempering?
  18. Hendricks takes a good bullpen and makes it near elite. Hendricks-Bummer-Marshall is nails and Crochet and Heuer are both young, high upside relievers. Fry and Foster are serviceable with upside. I'm doing a quick scan now and I'd say CWS now has a top 3 bullpen with NYY and NYM. LAD, ATL, and StL are in the mix in the next tier. IMO the signing of Hendricks, while expensive, makes the team much more balanced. With bats for days and three excellent starters, having a good pen rounds out the squad for a title run.
  19. I'm no Mets homer but they have better hitters and starters than the Yankees, and a competitive bullpen. And on top of it, they don't have the issue of their two best hitters having serious injury concerns. I'd say the "Mets being the Mets" is losing its flavor and could leave quite a sour taste in the mouth come playoffs.
  20. Roster Resource has Lindor hitting 3rd, with Nimmo leading off and McNeil in the 2-hole. IIRC Lindor liked leading off in CLE however when I look at his splits batting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd through his career I don't see any numbers jump off the page in any direction. So hitting him 3rd doesn't seem to be a bad idea on an individual level. Then there's the team context: Nimmo and McNeil (and Conforto/Smith) are lefties while Lindor hits switch. Again, Lindor is very consistent from both sides so it looks like if they use him in the 3-hole it'll go L-L-S-L-R-L-R-R. If they put him at lead
  21. Hitting leadoff in front of McNeil, Alonso, Conforto, Davis: 💰 .285/.345 - 30 - 85 - 120 - 20 with room in the HRs and SBs
  22. Mets going into the season with Lindor-McNeil-Alonso-Conforto-Davis-Smith-McCann and DeGrom-Carrasco-Stroman and looking at SD like
  23. Freeman is arguably the best pure hitter in the game. You could give him Covid and take away his bat and he'd still hit .250.
  24. I am in agreement for all redraft leagues. I'm worried the K rate climbs back up to 30%, the BABIP stays normal, and we find ourselves with a .285/.350 guy with 25 HRs and 20 SBs. That's a tragic scenario but I don't have those fears with Soto, Betts, Trout, or even Acuna.
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