En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. I think Donaldson will rise. He's at #103 right now (around Moose and Escobar) and last season, with injury concerns and lack of "proof" that he was back, he was in the #70s as I recall. Better situation now, proved he still mashes, better park, I think he'll jump a tier and hang around Chapman, McNeil, and Muncy. Bo Bichette should rise as well. He's currently #74 while Hiura is at #43. Those two should even out as Bichette is a much better bet to go 20-20 than Hiura while still offering .270 AVG and 180 RBI+R.
  2. Yeah. A's will be starting Fiers, Manaea, Montas, Luzardo, and Bassitt. Montas could have the best season of the bunch, especially given that Luzardo will be on an IP limit. EDIT: Just saw that Puk will head into the season as a starter too, though he'll also be on an IP limit. 6-man rotation?
  3. Carlos Santana ADP #143 so not very comparable. Steamer for Braun (age 36): 532 AB, .268/.329 - 25 - 80 - 69 - 9, ADP #237 Steamer for Peralta (age 32): 605 AB, .280/.342 - 22 - 77 - 77 - 3, ADP #258 So Braun is going 20 picks ahead of Peralta and you lose .12 BA, gain 3 HRs, 3 RBIs, lose 11 runs, and gain 6 steals? I'm not seeing your point here. Again, this is a buy/fade thread. If you want to fade Peralta that's fine, just say so.
  4. This is really case specific though. If instead you drafted a bunch of busts/injuries, you'd be really happy to have a guy like Peralta who is super consistent. So your point is that you drafted well. Ok, but my point is that Peralta is a great value at his current draft price. Not really the same thing.
  5. Buy: David Peralta (OF - ARI). Current NFC ADP #258. Was hurt last year but is a doubles machine, slated to hit 2nd behind Marte and in front of Escobar and Walker. 162 game average: .290/.346 - 21 - 80 - 80 - 7. For 2020, I give him .290/.346 - 20 - 75 - 90 - 3.
  6. This link has graphs and GIFs for the same article: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-im-excited-for-dansby-swansons-2020/
  7. I am fading Goldy. His K% is increasing, BB% decreasing, and it looks like his ~.300 AVG was due to a ~.350 BABIP. That sunk to .303 last season (and a .260 AVG to go with it). Lineup surrounding him does not look strong at all which means pitchers may not feel the need to walk him as often. Would definitely take Bell/Abreu over him. Would even consider Mancini or C Santana at a later point.
  8. @meh2 would you be willing to give us a tentative projection? I like the narrative here but do you see 150+ IP?
  9. Items that stand out on a semi-deeper look: 1st Half: 10.8% BB%, 20.4% K%, .315 BABIP, 2.1% IFFB%, 0.9% IFH%, 10.9% soft% 2nd Half: 14.2% BB%, 17.3% K%, .241 BABIP, 13.3% IFFB%, 7.6% IFH%, 17.2% soft% So he walked more, struck out less, got pretty unlucky, but hit the ball softer. His HR/FB crashed too from 28.4% to 16.7%. Just looks like he was on another level, one that couldn't be sustained, and regression to the mean hit hard. At the end of the first half he was on pace for like 50 HR, 150 RBIs so he was bound to fall back to earth. .275/.365 - 30 - 100 - 80 - 0 seems very doable. Basically Jose Abreu with more walks and a better OBP. I think Bell has better power than Abreu as well, though Abreu has a much better surrounding lineup and will likely get more RBI+R.
  10. 👍 Leading off in front of Polanco, Cruz, Donaldson, Rosario, Garver, Arraez, Sano, Buxton? 10% BB%, 16% K%, .340 OBP? There's 100 runs. 20-35 HRs? 75 RBIs? .244 BABIP should rise a bit. Toss in a handful of SBs... .260/.340 - 25 - 75 - 110 - 5 seems like a rather reasonable projection to me, with room in the HRs and RBIs. And at #144 that's a steal. The only issue is if Arraez, who is an on-base machine, gets bumped up to leadoff at some point.
  11. The uncertainty associated with him makes me want to pass at #132 (13th 2B off the board by NFC ADP). Newman is sitting there at #195 and has a high floor, ol' Cesar Hernandez is hiding at #283, and Segura will be 2B this year and can be had at #186. None of them have the raw power, but Biggio K'd at nearly 30% and if the ball isn't juiced, who knows? A line of .240/.340 - 15 - 65 - 90 - 15 doesn't look great in the 10th round. Cesar Hernandez can do that and add 30 points to the BA. 🤷‍♂️
  12. 2019 1st half: 97 IP, 5.01 ERA, 5.31 FIP, 10.30 K/9, 4.55 BB/9, 1.86 HR/9, 1.34 WHIP 2019 2nd half: 81.2 IP, 2.76 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 13 K/9, 0.77 BB/9, 1.43 HR/9, 0.81 WHIP I don't see any huge discrepancies in the subtler stats, so it looks like a control issue. He just locked down his walks and cut down the HRs.
  13. I do too, but will the playing time be there? He's basically platooning with Pujols at 1B and Fletcher at 2B, though Fletcher could see some time in RF. Most projections have him at less than 450 ABs... but yeah, the price is right at the moment (#281) and if he should end up leading off all year then .285/.340 - 20 - 60 - 100 here we come.
  14. Buy: Jose Ramirez, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Luis Severino, Bo Bichette, Mike Soroka, Trey Mancini, Andrew Benintendi, Josh Donaldson, Zach Wheeler, Edwin Diaz. Fade: Javy Baez, Keston Hiura, Fernando Tatis Jr, Jonathan Villar, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Luis Robert, Yuli Guerriel, Danny Santana.
  15. Personally I'm not buying Gallegos and I love buying middle relievers. He doesn't walk a lot of guys which is great but his K rate isn't amazing and his price is way too high. I mean you can pick up Pressly, J James, Munoz, Betances, Clase, Ginkel, Poche, Castillo, Pomeranz, etc... for next to nothing or for literally nothing. Why pay mid-round price for a mid-RP who may or may not close, and if he does, may or may not be good?
  16. All the sites and experts certainly seem to think Gallegos will close should CMart get injured or move to the rotation. Gant could be a darkhorse though I'm not sold on his stuff and his second half left a lot to be desired. Then there's Andrew Miller who was gold for years but had a couple rough seasons (surge in BABIP, falling LOB%, surge in Hard%) but still suppresses HRs and could turn it around. Also Hicks should be back at some point later in the season no?
  17. NFBC #106 isn't that much of a discount. His low of #162 is, so it's a wait and see how this unfolds and where he turns up in each individual draft. I'd pass on Carrasco for Wheeler/Fried/Hendricks who are currently going later, but I'd take him over Urias/Boyd/Minor, so that puts me buying around #145.
  18. 2019 rookie season: 13-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.45 FIP, 7.32 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 51.2% GB% Amazing season from a former first round pick, acknowledged with an All Star appearence, 2nd ballot Rookie of the Year, and 6th in Cy Young voting. I watched him pitch in SF and he carved up a terrible lineup like he was bored. Giants announcers had very positive things to say (mature pitcher, Maddux-esque). And yet, Steamer has him projected for serious regression: 4.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.08 FIP, 1.16 HR/9 In 2020 he has Acuna/Albies/Freeman behind him with question marks to follow in the lineup, but the defense should be good with Inciarte back. Can any Braves fans or knowledgeable folks explain this? What can we expect from the young ATL ace? FanGraphs
  19. Just for clarification, my comp to Urias was in regards to the similarities in age, hit tool, prospect pedigree, and projections. I feel like if you want to "project" Hiura to lower his K% and thereby maintain a decent BA, then you should extend the same projection to Urias. That's all. As to the hard hit %, that list is littered with very low BA players. Sano, Gallo, Ianetta, Schwarber, Franmil... No one is saying Hiura's power projection is off base, he will definitely mash 25+ bombs. The point is his BA is a liability and that is not being accounted for in the price. All I was saying is the hype is serious, the price is high, and I feel like you can get better value in the 3rd round---more surefire floor and solidity than a second year player who strikes out 1/3 of the time and is destined for BABIP regress.
  20. I like Hiura a lot, but the value seems crazy inflated right now. 2019 .402 BABIP 😮 2019 30.7% K% 🤢 It may be, as folks have mentioned, that his K rate normalizes and his A+ hit tool is on display, but the same could be said for Luis Urias. In fact: Hiura (age 23): Hit 50/60, GamePower 45/60, RawPower 60/60, Speed 45/45, FutureValue 60 Urias (age 22): Hit 50/65, GamePower 40/45, RawPower 20/35, Speed 50/50, FutureValue 55 Definite difference in raw power and game power, but the rest is awful similar. Also Urias has a significantly lower K% and a higher BB%. So if we believe Hiura can normalize, then why don't we believe Urias can as well (who is being drafted #300)? I'm not trying to say that they are the same player or should be drafted as such, Urias is batting 9th while Hiura is 4th, and the power discrepancy is serious. But Hiura at #43 right around K Marte, Albies, 20 spots ahead of LeMahieu, 70 spots ahead of Escobar, and 140 ahead of Segura, seems way off base. Nothing against the guy, just not my draft style. Too expensive for too many question marks in a 3rd round pick. 🤷‍♂️
  21. I'm less confident about playing time at the moment but I intend to keep an eye on the situation. Odor is always on the verge of being terrible. Frazier is a career .243 hitter and will platoon at 1B against lefties, leaving 3B open for Solak. Solak could also find time in the OF I guess, but Gallo/Santana/Calhoun looks decent. So it looks like unless Ordor or Frazier s**** the bed, Solak is left on the short side of a platoon. Bummer, because I really like his potential.
  22. This. Kluber's 162 game average season is: 16-10, 3.16 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9. Those are almost Kershaw numbers. ADP is currently #88, with a low of #124. I'm buying at the current price, but if he can fall beyond 100 there's huge value here. I mean Paxton is only 2 years younger and has a much larger injury history and people seem pretty confident with him at #92. Not seeing the logic there.
  23. Well the Frazier signing for Texas means that Solak looks like a bench/utility bat, and likely won't garner enough ABs to merit fantasy value. I mean, with Choo at DH, Frazier at 3B, and Gallo/Santana/Calhoun in the OF, I don't see 400+ ABs for Solak unless an injury should befall one of the above, or a terrible drop in production. Bummer.
  24. Lifelong Giants fan here and I had to pause at your 25-30 HR projection because I asked myself: when was the last time any Giants player hit over 25 HRs? Answer: Pence hit 27 in 2013. Huff hit 26 in 2010. Then Bonds in 2007 but we'll leave that era out. So since the Bonds era that's two times in 11 years, or 18% of the time, that any member of the Giants has hit over 25 HRs. Digging deeper, no one has hit 30 HRs for this team since 2004(!) when Bonds hit 45 at age 39 😲 and, I kid you not, hit .362 with a .609 OBP with a 37.6% BB% and a 6.6% K% 😳. Seriously, I had to read those stats over three times. He put up 11.9 WAR that year. 🤮 This is to say that it's amazing how power-starved the Giants have been for over a decade. It's also useful to note that it takes a video-game season by Bonds to break the 30 HR threshold for the Giants. So building on your post, I like the projection for Yaz of .260/.330-20-75-75 with potential for more counting stats depending on where he hits in the lineup and the possibility of a handful more HRs, though 30 seems distant.
  25. Very possible that he doesn't hit 30 steals, and I agree that expecting less is probably wisest. This said, even at last season's pace he projects to 12 SBs. The year before in the minors he stole 15 in a mere 244 PA. In 2018 he stole 32 in almost 600 PAs. But you're right, minor numbers often don't translate, even with talents like this. So cut the steals in half, and give him .275/.330 - 20 - 65 - 110 - 15.