En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. Well he went from perhaps hitting second to definitely hitting 7th so that hurts his counting stats pretty hard. Probably not much to see here in 2019 as he adjusts to the league and pitchers to him, but 2020 is whole different story. Good contact hitter with good plate discipline hitting in a young and powerful lineup, he could be a great sleeper going into next season.
  2. His name has been popping up all over Twitter as a great OF sleeper. I'm not sure I see the appeal but the 2018 splits are clear: 1st half: .210 AVG, .297 OBP, .345 SLG, .135 ISO 2nd half: .269 AVG, .340 OBP, .487 SLG, .218 ISO If he can replicate the second half over a full season he could go .265/.340 with 20 HRs, 15 bags, and 150 RBI/R. Not bad for an ADP of 228.
  3. Power, no. He likely has a 15 HR ceiling. Speed, on the other hand, he has room to grow. He played through the second half of last year with a broken foot which curbed his speed so looking at the first half where he stole 14 with only 2 CS, he could push 30 in a full healthy season. I'm not betting on it; I projected 20+ in the OP, but he definitely can swipe more than 20 bags pretty easily if healthy. Now in a standard 5X5 one might consider Rosario a better choice as he'll likely provide more speed, even Polanco is an interesting later round SS for standard leagues, but I don't think Cesar gets a fair shake.
  4. I rolled with Hicks for a good portion of last season due to his consistent ABs. This said, I'll be looking elsewhere this year for grab-bag C targets. I like Narvaez and Lucroy right now for last round fliers.
  5. Myers is a classic category filling, AVG/OBP draining, injury-prone headache. I just can't get behind buying into this potential dumpster fire when the ceiling is .260/.340. He's only played a full season 1/3rd of the time. So you're gambling and it's not looking like a good bet unless you get a bunch of high AVG/OBP guys early (Freeman/Altuve/Rendon, etc). Even then, I'd rather gamble on Ramon Laureano 80 picks after Myers.
  6. Cesar Segura Harper Realmulto Hoskins Cutch Franco Herrera Yikes. Looking over ZiPS projections, and this is kinda crazy, not a single hitter here would have a projected OBP under .300. You could swap Cutch and Cesar, but you'd sacrifice a fair amount of speed in doing so and I feel like Cutch is a better pure hitter, someone I'd want coming up in the 6 spot with these guys ahead of him.
  7. Manny's is one of the more consistent hitters in the game, which means his floor is pretty rock solid. I'm happy drafting him where he's going, but I'm wondering about the counting stats in SD. RosterResource has him hitting 2nd (which seems odd as I'd assume he'd hit 3rd) with Kinsler in front. I think he's pretty much good for 100 runs with Hosmer, Myers, Renfroe/Cordero/Mejia behind him, but where will the RBIs come from?
  8. I think the point is that his move to SEA is a bad thing given his historical numbers.
  9. I like keeping 1-2 "swiss army knives" on my bench, and Camargo is a great pick for a super-util guy late in drafts. He comes with 3B and SS eligibility in Yahoo and one must assume will get OF soon enough, possibly even 2B. Remember that this season will be a long one for teams and there will be more days off than previous, resulting in fantasy managers needing to shuffle guys around to get starters in their lineup. With this in mind, guys like Camargo are extra valuable because their versatility means you need carry less bench hitters to fill playing time gaps. Camargo, Wendle, Marwin, Hernan Perez, Kingery are all guys I like depending on league depth and settings. Any others I missed?
  10. Looks like you may be beyond this in the draft, but is Adam Frazier still there? Dude is cash money especially in a points league. Kendrys Morales is as solid as they come. Dustin Pedroia is an injury-machine but when healthy he will provide top 100 production in a points league. Yandy Diaz has a big bat. Chris Paddack could return huge depending on the number of starts he gets. Danny Salazar is injured to start the year but may replace Beiber in CLE when he returns, dude can throw. Finally, Nick Martini doesn't have a starting job in OAK but shows good plate discipline and--if he can work into more than the 250 projected ABs--could provide good and cheap value.
  11. Well, to be fair anyone can argue anything, the point is that some arguments are better than others. You say that Votto "won't be dominant in any one category" indicating that your argument centers around a 1B (or perhaps any player) being dominant in a category. But then you say that the following guys are better values, in spite of the fact that no one is dominant in any one category. I mean, let's do this because these guys can be grouped very easily: Guys who will give you a slight edge in HR/RBI but will tank your BA: Hoskins, EE, Olson. Guys who are literally worse than Votto in every stat: Carp, Aguilar, Murphy. Hey look, it's Joey Votto: Votto, Abreu. And Bellinger, who likely should be taken ahead of Votto due to upside and steals.
  12. That's cool, but Smoak could very well put up that exact line (Smoak hit .270 in 2017). And if he doesn't, let's say Smoak puts up the low projection of .245 - 25 - 80 - 80 and let's say that Aguilar hits your projection above, well you're paying 150 picks for .015 - 5 - 20. Aguilar isn't Jose Abreu, but I feel like the hype wants to claim he's gonna put up Abreu numbers (.275, 30+, 100+). I'm down to see some arguments that he is Abreu-like, but if he isn't then he's simply not worth the ADP because you can get nearly all his production 150 picks later with a guy like Smoak.
  13. I had Beni last year and definitely experienced that second half slump. 2018 splits: 1st half: .297/.380 - 14 - 57 - 68 - 17 2nd half: .279/.343 - 2 - 30 - 35 - 4 The second half saw both his K% and BB% fall yet his K/BB stayed the same. Looking deeper, in the second half he started hitting a lot more ground balls: 37.7% in 1st, 45.4% in 2nd. But the biggest difference is a 12.7% HR/FB in the 1st to a tiny 3.3% in the second. So personally I think it's streaky/fluky weirdness. He'll be leading off for BOS this season, arguably the best place to hit in all of baseball. .285/.360 - 15 - 70 - 100 - 20 looks like the floor for Beni in 2019.
  14. That's what I said, then I looked it over and all the projections are nearly identical. Here's Steamer's, for example: Aguilar: .242/.317 - 28 - 84 - 71 Smoak: .239/.336 - 26 - 80 - 76 You can look them all over but basically Aguilar gets a handful more HRs and RBIs while Smoak gets better OBP. Is that worth 150 ADP difference?
  15. Justin Smoak called and he wants this thread to know that he's available an astonishing 150 picks behind Aguilar. Yes, that's one hundred and fifty picks later in NFBC ADP (Aguilar #80, Smoak #238) and for likely a very similar stat line. Just sayin...
  16. Dude is a s.t.u.d. muffin. As @SuperJoint rightly notes he gets a boost in roto over H2H due to his streakiness but man, does he pack a stat sheet at the end of the season. OBP leagues or points leagues too as he's taking walks and dunking doubles like he's trying to be Joey Votto. Easy 2nd round pick all day.
  17. For HLDs I like Rosenthal a lot. Former closer with pure heat, the clear 8th inning option in front of Doolittle who seems injury prone. I like Pressly a lot in HLD leagues as well. The PHI pen is crowded but Neshek could be a sneaky (and cheap) source of HLDs and ridiculous ratios. Most high-end middle relievers offer good HLD value with ratios and a nice K/9 to boot.
  18. You don't say. I, for one, am astonished that a top 10 SP would be more valuable than a last round flier for stability. I mean, really, shocked. Do you also think that most top-3 Roto teams had Acuna on them and not Bundy? I never thought about this before. So, you're saying that most teams that win had guys like Bregman, Machado, Freeman, Trout, and Betts? And you're saying that they didn't have Joe Panik, Albert Amora Jr, and Freddy Galvis? Really? I mean, really? They didn't have Freddy Galvis? How do you win without guys like Freddy Galvis? Seriously though, that is perhaps the worst argument you could bring to this thread. No one is comparing Snell to KM and no one wants to. All I said was that guys like KM have a place in fantasy baseball. You seem to be arguing that they do not have a place anywhere, which is odd given that this is a game wherein we collect statistics and a guy who produces statistics by definition has value. If he doesn't have value ***for you*** then just say so, but don't try and argue all out that he's worthless.
  19. To quote Anchorman, "that doesn't make sense." It's just too blanket a statement. If your draft leaves you with a bunch of very solid, non injury prone, stable players, then yes gamble on the upside hard at the end of the draft. If, on the other hand, your draft leaves you with a bunch of high upside high risk type guys, then a KM may look real nice in the last round. Every draft pick is context-dependent and every strategy is only applicable in the right context. 1-dimensional veterans have their place in the game, as do young flash-in-the-pan guys, and everyone in between.
  20. I owned Marte last year because he fell to me at the right time in the draft, so I can say that--last season at least--he is streaky as all hell. Now I don't know how to see weekly splits, but the monthly splits tell you a lot. Examples: Mar/Apr he walked 14 times to 23 Ks. Those were almost half his walks for the entire season while he continued to K at that rate. 7 of his 20 HRs came in the month of July, where he hit a silly .341/.371. June was his worst month, he hit .194/.245 with 18 hits and 6 BBs. And yet, in those meager 24 times on base he stole 8 bases to 1 CS. So if I'm playing a roto 5X5 I may not discount him as it's the end stats that matter. But if I'm in H2H, and those are the leagues I play in, I may pass on Marte at #38 for Robles at #101, Pham at #63, or even Inciarte at #139.
  21. Love Maeda when he plays. It all comes down to how many starts he gets. The LA staff is deep and we have learned that there's no issue with dropping a guy to the pen whenever the moon is angled right. Lol note how there are four LA SPs on that list and none are named Kershaw. Still, at ADP 231 (ranked 190 in Yahoo), I think there's value to be had here.
  22. Devers is likely the 18th (!) 3B off the board, meaning that in very few leagues will he be the starting 3B on a team. He also happens to form the very clear beginning of a new tier after Myers and Profar in the 115s and Devers and Moose at 150. Personally, I'm not that interested in him as a bench bat so will likely have few shares of him this year. I'd rather have a guy who can slot in at multiple positions and gamble on upside later. I mean, if he doesn't break out and merely improves, you get .260, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 75 R, 8 SB. Sano can give you those numbers, without the handful of SBs, at pick 226. Seager is going at 241 and will give you that power but sap your AVG in the process. I'm just saying that you're paying for the breakout because a modest improvement on 2018 doesn't looking *that* good.
  23. Everything under the hood with Baez says that last season was likely his ceiling as a hitter. On the other hand, you can get Bregman or Machado for the same price, players whose ceilings likely haven't been reached yet. I love players like him in fantasy because they draw in managers who overpay, leaving good value to be had in the process.
  24. Keep an eye on where he hits in the lineup. RosterResource has him in the 7 hole which doesn't bode well for his counting stats, but if he can cut down on his Ks and increase his BB rate, perhaps like his teammate Nimmo, and should an injury befall Nimmo or Lowrie, he could end up at the top of the order and see his value dramatically improve. At this point, though, I like him only for a good source of mid-round SBs. I'd rather have Polanco, Hampson, or Simmons as my SS in standard leagues, and for cheaper draft prices too.