F@ndemonium

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  1. Snell's bloated walk-rate (& subsequent higher WHIP) give reason for some hesitation. Pre-injury, regression was expected following 2018 (3.16 xFIP and 3.30 SIERA). The elite K rate helps mask the walk issues, but don't eliminate them..... Bieber sports an exceptional K-BB%. His 3.28 ERA last year was supported by a 3.23 xFIP and 3.36 SIERA. One can argue that he allows far too much hard contact, however there are enough supporting metrics to suggest that he'll maintain ace-level production. Dream big if he's able to induce softer contact! AL Central is far less intimidating opponent. Question if Snell's velocity returns to pre-injury form (was 1 tic below during 2nd half). Bieber would be my preferred choice. Albies is definitely worth targeting. Knock on Meadows is his poor defensive profile. Candidate to be subbed during games (limiting AB). Rays mix n match lineups more than any other team in baseball as well. Playing time cautionary flags Albies has made offensive gains in each of his first three seasons. Only 23, wouldn't shock if he ultimately ends as the top keystone in the majors beginning this year. GL
  2. Absolutely would try to land both if possible....Take the Gleyber deal, between the two if choosing, however would attempt to land both before attempting to ship Snell and a latter pick for an earlier draft selection. Someone would pay for Snell presumably on name alone. If you end with the below 5, and basically downgrade only once in the draft, then you'd have done pretty well! Cole, Torres, Eloy, Bieber and Springer
  3. If planning to compete, which the roster suggests you are, would not hesitate to give the green light. Value Marte to Albies comparably, while preferring Verlander over Snell...Many owners value youth over production in dynasty (terrible strategy), with the unrealistic expectation of rostering a player for upwards to a decade. Simply doesn't happen. Don't get too attached to age. Can probably squeeze something else (swap your 3rd for their 1st, etc) , should your counterpart share in the aforementioned mindset. Verlander gives you the best chance of victory. Should the season take a down turn, he would still net a decent return from a competing franchise. Prefer acquiring the best piece, which you do here. Another route is trying to package Snell and Bichette for Lindor and an early-ish pick (allows you to retain Sanchez). Several different variations. GL
  4. Big fan of Albies & Ketel...Flip a coin as to preference. Would test the market on Snell independently (keep Marte). Last years elbow clean-up, high walk rate and slightly decreased velocity (upon return) are all (subtle) red flags. 3.31 xFIP and 3.56 SIERA suggest positive regression in 2020 (barring health), however would optimize his trade market....since, well... pitchers often break Lean towards keeping Sanchez (Tier-1 positional player), who beefed up considerably this off-season. Only catcher who may (should) approach 40 HR. Few have a career exit velo of + 90 mph (91 mph). Deeper draft pool makes elite positional talent more valuable. Personally would: Move: Snell Keep: Sanchez and Olson or Bichette Obtain: Lottery(ish) Picks Hope that helps. GL
  5. Points leagues are also my preferred. Here are few suggestive modifications that may help. Changes: 1. Penalty for CS....Your positive outputs have adverse negative value (W-L), it would seem like adding a CS penalty would make sense. Perhaps make SB 3 and CS -1.5 2. Adjust Wins and Losses to 2 and -2 respectively. Mitigate point allowances on team dynamic and focus more on individual performance 3. Adjust BS. Would make it 50% negative of a Save (-2.5). Also suggest upgrading Holds to +2.5 4. If you'd like......Incorporate Pick-Offs (for pitchers) and Sacrifice Hits (for batters) If your platform allows: 5. Create SP and RP specific scoring (i.e. Holds, Saves, QS) Our scoring system promotes utilizing starting pitchers in SP slots and relievers in RP slots (rather than manipulating lineups with duel eligible arms). Teams accrue QS points solely when using the player in the SP slot, while RP receive Saves and Holds points when used in RP slot. Avoids devaluing of relievers. Cole and Verlander had phenomenal, outlier, seasons, which should be heavily rewarded. Don't over-tinker for a one (or two)-off. The rest looks pretty good. GL
  6. Corbin Carroll Aaron Bracho Nolan Jones Ronny Mauricio Tarik Skubal Trevor Larnach Matthew Liberatore Last spot: James, Diaz or Edwards (base on team need)
  7. I'd cut Metcalf....As Gordon integrates more into the offense his roll will likely be more diminished. Eagles DST will feast on MIA....Carolina would be runner up choice
  8. No disrespect, but I feel like this is not necessarily accurate. As a good owner, you navigate through injuries, rather than throwing in the towel when a season isn't the perfect storm. Drafting handcuffs for your top players, limits the liability of injury. Also being able to creatively construct offers, whether moving top assets for solid depth should you get bit by the injury bug, or using areas of strength to obtain starting lineup upgrades are all good ownership behaviors. Anyone knowledgable, and actively competitive will win regardless of format, however having to have a deeper knowledge of the subject matter certainly portrays a more solid skill set. We all know that Dalvin Cook and Zeke Elliott are good...that goes without saying, same for countless other surface level players. However having the savviness to add the Bo Scarborough's of the world to the end of a bench, upon being signed to the practice squad 3 weeks ago (not just after they demonstrate it on the field), is more impressive from a "skill" standpoint. We all have our preferences...just how I feel
  9. I've found that playing in deeper formats mitigates luck quite a bit. I don't play competitively in shallow formats for that reason...with my largest platform being 20 team. Smaller leagues tend to have less separation amongst rosters, with every team, for the most part, being littered with quality talent throughout. They also provide a more robust FA pool, so its easy to remedy holes as they present. The combination of a larger volume of free assets (FA, in conjunction with teams being separated by an eye lash begs to reason that luck will play a much larger role. Analyzing data and being able to make in-season adjustments will of course result in better owners having a higher probability of success over a long sample size, however deeper leagues tend to (imo) reward those that are more skilled...thus eliminating some of the luck element. More emphasis on the owners ability to identify trade targets, while having to proactively discover gems on the wire (before they get helium). Harder to mask weak owners inadequacies overall. Just my own personal opinion
  10. Foles is easily the play out of necessity...I recently traded em' in my 20 team re-draft, based on the tasty schedule down the stretch...think "St Nick" could pay huge dividends down the stretch...May also not be a bad idea to also look to shed one of the other RB that you have a for a backup TE to Waller, while also looking for a DST with a stronger week 16 matchup, with Bills set to play NE (Pittsburgh if possible)...Thats optimistically looking at you getting to the finals/semi-finals
  11. 4 weeks till the postseason...fighting for a playoff spot (which begins week 14)
  12. 1. Humphries 2. Cohen 3. Bisi ....perhaps also consider the likes of Josh Reynolds, Alex Erickson, AJ Brown (most preferred; probably owned), Russell Gage or to a lesser extent Breshad Perriman to that mix
  13. (if he plays) Bell (vs Giants) & Singletary (vs Browns)....both are going to be utilized in the pass game, the run game and around see time around the goal-line. Giants rank 25th against the rush, Browns rank 30th. Samuels will get receptions, but the Rams are a formidable at stopping the run, and T.E. may very well again receive the lions share of the totes. Bucs do a good job stopping the run, and Drake won't just go away, which limits Johnson's ceiling Samuels above Johnson should Bell ultimately sit.
  14. 20 team re-draft 2 games out of the playoffs with 4 to play 3rd in the league in points, yet terrible luck has lead to mounting loss count. Trying to shed Carson prior to bye... Owner of Fant (bye) and D Walker (Out). Take this offer..... Receive: Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards & Jonnu Smith Give: Chris Carson & Rashaad Penny Team in sig....Thanks
  15. My luck, or lack thereof, this season feels like a bad joke.....In a competitive 20 team league my team teams record is doing down the tubes at the hands of my opponents blow-up bizarre outlier performances. The team in first in my division has 200 less points allowed to give an idea of how bad my luck has truly been. Below I've listed some of the doozies that have lead to the demise Week 2: Lose by 15 points.....Demarcus Robinson scores 23 points....he has not topped 10 points in any other week Week 3: Lose by slightly more than 2 points....Taylor Gabriel scores 25.45 points....he has not topped 5 points in any other week Week 7: Lose by 10.....Chase Edmonds scores 32.80 ...he has not topped 15 in any other week Week 8: Lose by 18 points. Daniel Jones scores 31.54 points...he had not topped 13 points in any of the previous 4 weeks (nor the prior 3 weeks combined for that matter) Week 9: Lose by 5.9 points....Preston Williams scores 19.05 points....he has yet to score more than 9 in any other week To say its frustrating would be an understatement.......Here's to a better week 10