twentyone

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  1. Historically, isn't the statistical differences between players at the all star break, narrower than they are at season end? I did't put much thought into the percentage that I used. Maybe your percentage is more accurate. I'm more than happy to give you that. I just think this year there is going to be a bigger cluster of players at the median, and less of a gap between average, and superior. And if that is the case, that somehow I should alter my approach to drafting than I would during a normal season.
  2. Naturally, for the same amount of innings, the better pitcher should perform better. But, my concept is that the gap between top tier and 2nd/3rd tier will be less substantial than a typical 162 game year. Normally, week in/week out, they would gradually pull away, and assert their dominance and consistency over the long haul but, with a drastically shorter season, they aren't going to pull away as much. To your example: In a points league, over 162 games, lets say Cole outscores Giolito by 15-20%. Is Cole still going to outscore in by the same percentage over a substantially smaller sample? Because my hunch is that he still outscores him, but, by a smaller margin (maybe 5-10%). Meaning someone doesn't lose out as much by passing on a top tier pitcher.
  3. if this isn't filled yet. i'm interested..... mybusinessmailgoeshere@gmail.com send me a dm or respond to this post if you do send me an invite. as the address says, my business mail goes to this address. don't want to miss it.
  4. I respectfully disagree about what you're saying about aces. I think that it is less important to draft an ace arm this year. When it is all said and done, I'm sure so statistically intelligent website like Fangraphs will be able to prove (or disprove) this but, I think the potential flaws of 2nd and (maybe even) 3rd tier pitchers will be less magnified over a shorter season. Aces are aces because they provide superior numbers, week in and week out, over the long haul. Granted, I play in a H2H points league, so, maybe it is different than roto but, I feel like prime example: last year Matthew Boyd was higher in points standings at the end of July than where he ended up. If end of July was end of season, he would have been even more of a stud arm. At least in a points league, a Verlander/Cole/Buehler will be less better than a Luis Castillo/Giolito/Corbin in a 3-4 month season, than they would be over a normal season.
  5. league settings link doesn't allow me to view your league settings
  6. I haven't read a whole lot of what MLB's strategy is going to be to get in as many games as possible. Is it widely accepted that there are going to be a lot of doubleheaders? I just came across the following: the current CBA allows for just one pre-scheduled day-night doubleheader — which allows for two games and two sets of fans in attendance — and three twi-night doubleheaders — in which two games are played, with one in the afternoon followed immediately by another at night — per season. In reading threads on Rotoworld, I've felt more convinced that with the shortened season, elite arms are substantially nullified, because innings limits won't be an issue for rookie pitchers. And guys that normally throw 125-150 innings are more on equal footing with top tier pitchers, because from a numbers standpoint, it is highly likely that there will be more pitchers that will throw max innings in a shortened season.
  7. I agree with this. If you live in the northern half of this country, you know that October is a crapshoot. Seattle, Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Mpls, Pittsburgh, the Northeast...... The further you get into October, the more likely that temperatures are going to get low. At worse, regular season won't go past the first part of October. Also, I'd imagine off days/travel days in the MLB playoffs are going to be eliminated/reduced too.
  8. what is the scoring set up? and how many teams in the league?
  9. We can't swap out daily. It is once a week. 5 starters. two relievers. I haven't played around with the concept of replacement level bats. That may be another phase of prep that I'll do between now and draft time. If you have any recommendations on how to approach that, I'm open to suggestions.
  10. I even did a scatter plot for pitchers, just like I did hitters, over the past 3 years. On average, theres: 700+: 1 pitcher 600-700:2 pitchers 500-600:6 pitchers 400-500: 14 pitchers so, by missing out on those arms, i really have been doing a disservice to my overall team.
  11. thanks. i feel more justified in what i'm thinking about doing. sounds like i should have been taking a different approach sooner. i've just thought that if i'm loading up on 550 points+ bats, while everyone else is taking arms, that i should win each have a high probability to win each week because my bats will be outscoring their bats, and we start more hitters than we do pitchers.
  12. I play in a ten team H2H league. But, it is a very arms heavy league. Though I wouldn't call the other owners unintelligent, the tendency to draft pitchers vs hitters is substantial. In the past 5 years, I have usually gone bat heavy, looking to exploit this arms tendency. I usually make the playoffs, but have not won yet. I'm thinking of trying to draft as many of the top 20 sp's before I start drafting any other position players. Crazy? Some additional info that may or may not help you get a feel for my league: last year, Trea Turner was drafted in (I think) the 5th or 6th round. Jorge Soler (639), Trey Mancini (603), Eduardo Escobar (603), Ketel Marte (596), Matt Chapman (574) and Austin Meadows (547) were all players that were either undrafted, or drafted and dropped. I don't think any of them were permanently off the waiver wire until after 5/15. The last 3 years, on average, there are 43 batters that have between 500-650 points. I'd say that usually 25% of them are FA's for at least the first month or two of the season. Just trying to get some input before settling in on my draft strategy. Thanks in advance.
  13. the discount won't be worth the risk. this is gonna be someone else's problem in my league this year.