Obviously I have no clue about what's going to happen to the Nba season, we are all wandering in the dark.
But, hey, greetings from a fully quarantined Northern Italy, the center of the coronavirus outbreak in Europe!
Reading these posts I realized that some key pieces of information from here are missing, misleading or just not completely true, so there's something I think has to be shared.
We got hit hard, 2978 deaths (now) are no joke. Still, since like many rotofans I'm a rabid fan of advanced stats, yesterday our Superior Institute of Health provided us fresh ones. Here our most famous newspaper's report, in Italian of course. Sorry for who doesn't speak/read Italian, I cannot translate everything but here some useful data:
the average age of the total people who died is 80 years old (we're an old country. Please, note that in 2016 life expectancy in the US was 78)
the dead people had an average 3.6 other more or less serious illnesses (This number isn't in the article, I took it from a previous update because I noticed that you talk about the dead here like if they were perfectly healthy)
the average age of the people who got sick here is 63 years old.
About the first 2003 dead: seventeen were under 50, of whom five under 40, all of them with previous serious illnesses (so 1986 were over 50 yo)
I admit that my first points could be also misleading, because this outbreak happened mainly in a "perfect scenario" i.e. three regions of Northern Italy (Lombardia - around Milan -, Veneto - around Venice - and Emilia Romagna - around Bologna -) where the health care system works well (overall the Italian Health Care System was ranked second in the world behind France by the W.H.O. years ago, but the North's one is way better than the South's one).
At a first glance, with proper health cares this whole thing is manageable and great percentages are plausible when a person is at least decently healthy or even mildly ill. The biggest problem is that if too many "weak" people get sick at the same time, in the long run even the younger population could be in serious trouble, because if hospitals collapse due to a high number of patients (and people tend to get also other illnesses, the usual ones, even now), the average age of the dead could decrease rapidly and that could tell a whole new story. This virus can easily cause pneumonia and even very very young people need intensive cares (intubations and so on) but young people so far have always responded well to treatments.
As numbers suggest our doctors (who are 1 more than US doctors every 1000 people. 3 vs 4 x 1000, by the way) are doing great. I just hope that the system holds on. Let's see in three/four days.
8.30 am here, time to work. From home. Please, consider me at your disposal to share other details of our experience.