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About JAG

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  1. There is not going to be a ripple effect. If there are 12 teams in your league, and you take both as you say, teams 1-11 will "fight" over the rest of the TEs. So 1 team will still end up with Ertz. 1 team Andrews. 1 team Waller, and so on until you get to teams that waited and will stream. You seem to think that there will be a team left holding an empty bag at the end, and I'm quite certain they will not. There is not only 1 TE per owner FF-worthy TEs. Also, since you insist this is such a slam dunk advantage over the rest of the league, I'll add what this has done to your team. No Lamar or Mahomes. The top available WR1s and RB1s are gone. Depending on roster makeup, you will start a RB3 and a WR3 against other teams RB1 and WR1. Also, the depth of the WRs doesn't work in your favor since your flex is taken. I have 0 issue taking a top TE as it is an advantage. I think the flaw in the argument as it pertains to your squad is the TE vs all comers at flex. The lift you get is around 50 yearly points difference (vs taking a middle RB3/WR3). You've lost at least that in not taking a RB1. The other hit of not taking a WR1 is less but there went the advantage of taking a top guy at TE. I'm not going to derail this thread any more, but the notion it is an advantage on all accords is not true.
  2. Interesting concept. I've never seen a dude take two TEs at the onset of the draft, so I can't speak on experience. But I also wouldn't panic and reach for the next tight end a round early just because the top 2 are gone. I'd expect going in that if I have a shot at one, I'll take it. If not, wait and let it play out. Both are top 30 guys, but it doesn't force others upward just because one guy took 2. Supply and demand doesn't exactly apply unless multiple teams choose to follow same strategy like if each of the top 9 picks are RBs and you sit 10th and are scared 11 and 12 take the 2 you like, or more, forcing your hand. There are a handful of TEs that will be available after the draft that can be used as streamers. A lot of FF players stream TEs, and this strategy won't affect them one bit.
  3. How would it be a huge disadvantage? You draft both, one is a TE, one is in a flex spot vs all other positions. The only disadvantage goes to the guy not getting the other TE (Kelce or Kittle). Everything else is a wash.
  4. To get a feel for Stefanski as coordinator, I would not spend much time looking at 2019 Vikings. That offense was Kubiac's with Stefanski at the wheel. Look back another year at 2018 Vikings. Pass-to-run ratio of 62:38. This Browns team shouldn't need to throw to make first downs like the '18 Vikings did, so maybe the ratio tilts more like 60:40. Baker could approach 600 passes like Cousins did, and with new resources on the line and OL-whisperer Bill Callahan, he should have time in the pocket. I think this will be a post-hype leap year of sorts for the Browns offense.
  5. I have no reservations about the amount of work he'll get, and you bring up a valid point here that the coach/acting GM's butt is on the line. My hangup is the probability he has recurrent injuries - especially if that back flares up. If he is rode hard all year, that will lend to him missing time. If I miss out on Mark Ingram in the 4th, DJ is my next RB2. If both are gone, I might be forced to go plan C and take a tandem like the Colts duo.
  6. I owned him last year, I recall both being reported. At the time they made the switch to the backup I remember reading it was his back. But then after Drake got there, I read ankle. So I'm still not clear on the severity or if the back was not a correct report. https://cardswire.usatoday.com/2019/10/07/cardinals-rb-david-johnsons-back-discomfort-keeps-him-from-sitting-at-locker/
  7. I think this kid is good, I hate how high he's being drafted. I think he gets a fair share of the carries inside the 10, but will he see all? Nope, not a chance. I think he's going to be the guy at the 1 or 2 when they opt for smash mouth. If it's 3rd down and they have an RPO, it'll either be Mack or Hines. Taylor will get more touches than Wilkins ever did. Maybe on carries per game basis he'll overtake Mack by the end of the season, but it'll be December or Mack will be injured or both. He'd need to take the job away in the first month of the year to be a 'top 5' guy, so that is a pie in the sky wish. Top 10 can be done with a boatload of TDs while splitting the touches. Still not likely. Top 15 is a realistic ceiling for this year, with nearly half the work and being the hammer at the goal. So depends where you see him vs Mack and the potential for taking work from him. I see Mack getting the bulk early, keeping a between the 20s role and deployed in 11 personel inside the 10. JT starts slow, gets more open field touches as the season goes, taking a majority of goal touches and winding up being just short of Macks touches - keeping both from being top 20 backs. Both being in that high RB3/low RB2 chase all season with JT outscoring Mack by virtue of being a better goal line converter.
  8. I wish I knew more about his back injury last year. It seemed to me that when he hit the wall, ARZ turned to the backup, then traded for a healthy RB who was on the block in Drake. DJ tried to come back, but did not appear to be himself. I want to believe in the guy, but back injuries never seem to go away. I'm going to play keep away unless I either find out more about his back or I can get him dirt cheap.
  9. I just compared the two on playerprofiler.com. If he runs some routes from the slot, he'll get more separation. If he runs from outside, there is a very small difference, likely negated by Evan's longer reach. 2018 stats when both were working outside, Godwin got on average 4.5" more separation per route than Evans (1.4 yards vs 1.28). If he works more in the slot like he did in 2019, Godwin gained another 3" of separation. To get an idea of just how the slot skews that number, see Adam Humphries of 2018; 1.65 yards or 6" more than Godwin's 2019. Based on that site's data they separate practically the same. If you see it differently enough as that will separate the two, then go for Godwin. Neither are likely to disappoint.
  10. I just read he asked for a trade. I have no idea how accurate that report is or how fractured the contract extension talks have gotten. He should get a bump in pay for his play last year and assumed role this year. If McKinnon can't/doesn't make it back to the field, I really don’t think this rushing attack is deep enough. If Mostert splits, that leaves them with Coleman and Jeff Wilson. I happen to like the kid from Baylor, but he's got to make the squad first. Not sure if they'll turn to Hurd or let him keep learning WR.
  11. You can't see a path where he compiles 1250 scrimmage yards with 10 TDs? With # of receptions holding firm at above 25 to be RB12 in ppr. Essentially what he did last year minus the discussed 5 TDs, and needing luck to do so? I can't see any way a rookie comes in and produces better than 5 ypc (5.5 for Gus), be as good in pass pro, and pick things up without much camp time in order to steal a bunch of the playing time away from Ingram. It's not a slam dunk he takes a bunch of work from Gus. Now, I do expect the Ravens to get him acclimated so when injuries happen, they can keep flowing on offense. But there's no reason to disrupt the offense just to get a rookie in there. It'll be a flow of the game, give him pieces here and there until he shows he's got it, can do it under most circumstances, and do it as well as Ingram. Could take most of the year. Definitely won't see it week 1. I think Ingrams 200 carries are safe given health. And if he even lowers the ypc to 4.5, he will still end up a high end RB2 with weeks of RB1 outings.
  12. This is my gut, and I'm buying everywhere in the 4th round.
  13. That doesn't take as many chances. These are the things I can't put into numbers.
  14. No, I haven't assumed either of the two. In previous years before BA got there, Godwin operated outside and did pretty well for himself. Now add in the amount of work he got from the slot and his looks increased by 1/3, catch % increased as well as TDs. I think without seeing as many reps from inside all those drop down. How much they drop depends on several factors I can't begin to project. I stick to what I believe in that simple examination of more slot = more production. So reverse should be the opposite. He is being drafted based on last year's stats and the possibility of more. I'm not buying that.