jvmillion83

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  1. Because of the $280 limit, top 10-15 guys is available will get past 50 (maybe into 60's possibly low 70s if you're a top guy like Trout). Top 40-50 guys should stay in the 40s. Top 100 guys will range from low 20s to high 30s. Machado just has that name value where he may get up there and despite the bad average he's still a lock for good power numbers. I also have Bryant I could keep at 46 or Correa at 33. It might be best to throw all three back and use my $160+budget in the auction to try to get any of them for value or a few others around that.
  2. My keepers are due tomorrow. 12 team head to head. Keep up to 12 and can't exceed $180. In the auction, our cumulative total can't exceed $280. Player values increase $4 each year. C/1B/2B/3B/SS/5 OFs/UTIL/SP/SP/RP/RP/P/P/P/P 6 additional bench spots (25 total roster spots). I already have these guys locked 1b- bell- 5, 2b- huira - 11, 3b- vlad- 9, 2b/3b - moncada- 23, of- kepler -7, of- laureano- 9, of- kingery -8 sp- buehler 9, sp- berrios 15, p- urias 9. Debating between 2 of these three to keep for my final 2 spots: $48- Machado- I'll be assured a big bat going into auction and could fill my SS spot. His projected value at auction should be in the mid 40s but could reach 50 $5- Gore- I was definitely keeping him but with the season delay, I'm not sure how much he pitches in the bigs this year. If the Padres are competitive, they'll want him up at some point. $5- Garver- A value regardless. There's a lot to suggest his breakout was for real but then this came out of nowhere so I wouldn't be surprised if he's not a top 10 fantasy catcher this year.
  3. Ackey, Jesus Montero, Mike Moustakas (in his first four years), Colby Rasmus, Drew Stubbs, Taijuan Walker. Just a start of some wild misses from my keeper league in the past ten years.
  4. 12 team league. More than a month away that I have to submit my keepers. We can't keep over 12 guys and it can't exceed over $180 in budget. The live auction then happens and you can't exceed $280 overall. Player prices also increase $4 the first three years and then $2 each additional year on top of the $4. Who do you keep from this list? I think I have it ranked like this. Vlad-9, Buehler-9, Moncada- 23, Josh Bell- 5, Huira- 11, Berrios- 15, Kepler- 7, Correa- 33, Laureano- 9, Julio Urias- 5, Manaea- 5 , Machado- I don't think he'll get over 50 in the auction, Senzel- I'm worried about his playing time in Cincy, Franco/Gore- we don't have any N/A spot so minor leaguer will be taking up a bench spot. Machado- 48 Correa- 33 Moncada- 23 Berrios- 15 Senzel- 12 Huira- 11 Laureano- 9 Vlad- 9 Buehler- 9 Kingery- 8 Kepler- 7 C Martinez- 5 Odorizzi- 5 Alfaro- 5 Josh BEll- 5 Julio Urias- 5 McCullers- 5 Gore- 5 Garver- 5 Manaea- 5 Wander Franco- 5
  5. I'm intrigued with Dylan Bundy getting out of Baltimore and being in a much better pitching environment. I'm sure he'll be barely touched in drafts.
  6. My first impression AL East Yankees- Just a dominant roster. That staff will coast. AL Central- Indians- They have a great system for developing pitching so they'll be fine. Still a good team. AL West- Astros- Still too good of a roster. They should still finish at the top. WC- Athletics- If the staff can stay healthy but that's if. WC- Rays- They are still a deep roster. I considered the Twins but don't like their pitching depth. I like the Angels to improve but I don't know by how much. The Red Sox are also too talented and will be in the mix. I like the White Sox on paper but until they prove otherwise, they'll need to do it on the field. NL East Braves- Just a really good team NL Central Cardinals- I don't like anyone in this division but the Cards have the most solid roster. The Reds seem like the White Sox of the NL. I'll have to see it to believe it but they'll be in the mix NL West- Dodgers- Just a dominant roster. This team will coast. WC- Mets- If this staff stays healthy, they will have a great year. WC- Nats- They'll make it in there. I considered the Reds. Arizona is a trendy pick but I like the NL East teams better. The Rockies are another team I thought of. I think their offense and team is good enough to overcome pitching woes. A's over Rays Mets over Nats Yankees over A's Indians over Stros Yankees over Indians Dodgers over Mets Braves over Cards Dodgers over Cards Yankees over Dodgers
  7. Keeping PHI and SF for the playoff run. PHI has the Giants and Washington week 14 and 15. They have Dallas in week 16 but SF has the Rams. Normally I'd be scared of the Rams but their offensive line is trash. SF should get points on sacks alone. Even if you're in Week 16, there might be someone better on the waiver wire considering only one other team is competing. Just a quick look at the schedule there are some potential streamers (taking into account that CHI, BUF, BAL, SF, NO, NE, PIT are already owned). Injuries always happen and teams always change (who would've thought a few weeks ago that ATL would be a top 10 D) so the landscape could change in a few weeks: Week 14 Dallas @ CHI ATL vs CAR GB vs WASH NYJ vs MIA INDY at TB JAX vs LAC PHI vs NYG Week 15 DET vs TB GB vs CHI NYG vs MIA PHI at WASH SEA at CAR ATL at SF Week 16 ATL vs JAX INDY vs CAR NYJ vs PIT NYG at WASH DENV vs DET (DET also might be solid) KC at CHI
  8. This. One of those guys you draft late and not worry where he is on the depth chart just like Kamara in '17. He'll be involved at some point and in a huge way. This offensive system can support two fantasy relevant RBs (considering those backs are good enough). I'd rather have this guy on my roster over some other mediocre back "who is the starter" in a much worse system.
  9. Landry, Cooper (slightly ahead of Cooks), Cooks
  10. I'm in a league where we can flex a QB but I drafted Luck in my draft before he retired. I'm having a tough time deciding which QB to pick up out of these two for my third qb to roster. (4 pts per TD, PT per 20 passing yards, pt per 10 rushing yards, 6 pts per rushing TD, -1 pt per INT, 5 pts per 350 passing yards) Jacoby Brissett- He didn't do so bad in some games when he started a few years ago. The coaching staff and supporting staff has changed. Frank Reich is one of the best coaches for QBs and I think with all their supporting cast, he can be a solid QB2. Joe Flacco- I'm a huge fan of how Denver addressed their offense this system including a huge upgrade in their coaching staff. I think Flacco can revitalize his career in Denver. He didn't have much for weapons in Baltimore since Steve Smith retired and how he's got more to work with including an OC that he worked with in Baltimore in his best years. I think he has potential to be a solid QB2.
  11. Yeah I don't think he'll top what Kamara did but this situation seems so similar to the Saints one a few years ago. Hill is that preseason guy, no matter his current role, just draft him on your roster and watch it all play out. I think this is one very late round pick that people might regret passing on His skill set fits the offense the best and this offense can make two rbs relevant.
  12. Marquise Goodwin finishes as a WR2- Was a 5th/6th rd pick at this time last year. Jimmy G's favorite WR. Justice Hill emerges close to what Kamara did in '17. Will Dissly finishes as top 10 TE- Someone needs to step up after Lockett for targets Larry Fitzgerald finishes top 20 WR- This offense will have a lot of completed passes. Zach Ertz finishes outside top 5 TE- Unlike last year, too many options for Wentz to throw to
  13. Speaking from experience, I did the same thing in an 18 round draft last year. Luckily I also took Chicago late but used the Jags week 1 and during Chicago's bye week and never used them again. I ended up dropping them before the fantasy playoffs. Someone picked them up, started them in RD 1 (the Derrick Henry game) and had an early exit.
  14. For what it's worth, turnover differential is a great metric in helping find value at defense each year. Sometimes Ds have years where the ball just bounces their way. It happens every single year. One glaring overvalued defense is Houston. They had a ratio of +5 in '15, -7 in '16, -12 in '17 but improved 25 points to +13 in '18. They faced a ton of bad QBs in '18 and their defense was completely healthy all year! This was the knock on their D the last few years before heading into last year. I'm not sure they will sustain all that luck with their health and they did lose a lot of key pieces in their secondary. They now face the NFC South and AFC West. Watson will be in many shootout games. They're not worth one of the top ten defenses off the board in my opinion. Some other ones I hate this year is Seattle. They lost the legion of boom and still had the best turnover differential in football at +15. Jarran Reed is out to start the year and they lost Frank Clark. That number is not sustainable. Cleveland is another one that jumped up 35+ points last year and while I think they're talented, the ball bounced their way a lot on D a lot of the year before the offense figured it out. They face a lot of firepower in their schedule and the Saints also face a lot of high scoring teams. (Houston, Rams, Dallas, Tampa) within their first five games. Although I'm intrigued by Carolina D, I'm staying away from the NFC South. The Rams also don't interest me as a top five pick. The Niners & Arizona have so much better offensive situations in the NFC West. I love Buffalo this year. They are my value pick to jump in the top 3 ('17 Jags, '18 Bears). Jets, Giants, Cincy, Titans, Dolphins in 5 out of their first 6 games (and the other game is vs a 42 year old QB who just lost his biggest receiving target to retirement). They got studs all over their D and play a ground and pound style with a HC who used to coach that style with Carolina. They moved down 14 last year in turnover differential due to an ineffective offense and injuries but there will be major progression. I also like the Jags to bounce back (Telvin Smith would've made this D so nasty). They had a huge playoff hangover last year and will have extra fire this year. The Bears & Chargers are the other elite defenses who have staying power in the top 5 providing they stay healthy. Other value picks I'm intrigued by. The Steelers. They go back to a balanced ground attack and will be so much better with Devin Bush and that -11 turnover differential should improve into the positive numbers. I'm also intrigued by the Broncos. That coaching staff with Vic Fangio and the assistants he brought in his miles better than Vance Joseph and that clown show. You can get Denver late and with Fangio and those defensive ends and other good pieces around that D, definitely worth a value pick. The Jets are another late value pick with an easy schedule like the Bills and now have CJ Mosely with the Williams guys up front and Adams in the backfield. I'm also intrigued by the Niners as a streamer and their front seven adding Nick Bosa and with everyone healthy seeing some improvement in that turnover differential after diving 22 points last year to -25. I think they could surprise.