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About archibjd

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  1. Strasburg needed TJ surgery after 68 IP in the majors last year. Over the next two years he will probably only pitch 100 IP without a lot of wins because of the team that he is on and the innings cap. I drafted Strasburg last year in my keeper league but found it frustrating to wait on him for 6 months. I had dreams of 300+ K's for this year or 2012. I think to be a *special* guy you can't have durability issues like Stras has had at such a young age. I think people tend to get caught up in building a team with potential only to never realize it. If you are going to gamble and invest in talent over the long term (2 years in fantasy baseball is long-term) it is always better to do it on the offensive side since there is significantly less injury risk associated with it. Also, with pitching it doesn't take nearly as long for the talent to develop. It makes no sense to waste a roster spot on a pitching investment over 2+ years, especially given Strasburg's durability issues. Way better to invest in a Bryce Harper if you are in a hole and need to rebuild. However the best strategy is to invest in the present and try to catch the Cargo's on the way up. Burn roster spots on guys like Drew Stubbs who have an outside shot at 25/40 instead.
  2. My philosophy is that in a standard 5*5 pool you have to compete in innings pitched since Wins and K's account for 50% of the counting categories for SP's (the others being ERA and WHIP). If you are in the bottom half of innings pitched there is no way you will get enough points in ERA and WHIP to offset your deficit in Wins and K's. There will be 2 or 3 teams that will be more balanced than you (finish near or at the top in Wins and K's and finishing better than average in WHIP and ERA with their solid high value picks and top 10 ace Anchor). I am all for value analysis and sleeper picks (that is why I read your thread) so that your 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th starter (whatever the case may be) is better than the other GM's similarly tiered starter. The top 10 ace is really important because they will log 200+ innings (having a greater effect on ERA and WHIP) and should be on a winning team. How many pitchers are there that will log 200+ innings with an ERA under 3.5 (or 3) and a WHIp under 1.15 with 200+ K strikeouts that are available after round 5? It takes a lot to offset that in value picks later on. If I pick up a top 10 SP and you don't you aren't going to beat me on the pitching side. I know the value guys too. I don't need to completely negate your value picks either since I have such a strong SP anchor. Also you are taking a risk that someone else doesn't hit on your high upside value picks before you do and then you are screwed. Of course you never put a guy out there with no chance for the win and a good chance of bombing. Of course you shouldn't have to even if you are going with a rotation of 6. Even my 6th starter would have at least a 50/50 chance at a win with 4-6 K's.
  3. I disagree. It doesn't matter how you move compared to where you were but rather how you move compared to the competition. You need to be competitive in terms of innings pitched or you will get killed in Wins and K's. If everyone (for example) is going with a 5-man rotation you can't go with a 4-man rotation and win because you'll finish too far down in Wins and K's. Also everyone else's 5th starter is doing the same (blowing up in a certain number of unpredictable starts) so it only matters that your fifth starter is blowing up less. With any number of starters you have there will always be a certain number of pitchers that will contribute negatively to your pitching percentage categories (i.e. if you have a ERA of 3.00 they will be above that ERA when they start) but that doesn't mean you don't start them because you need them to contribute to Wins and K's since you can't punt those categories. That's basically why you want a top-10 ace in rounds 4-5. So you have an anchor that will contribute positively well below ERA and WHIP virtually every time out while dominating in Wins and K's.
  4. I like to draft a top ten pitcher in rounds 4-5 (it was Wainwright last year here for me), and then go back to pitching when I see a second run on it with the high upside guys after round 10. You need an ace though to bring down your ERA, WHIP and boost your K's and Wins. I like Gio Gonzalez and Ricky Romero for value this year. Morrow isn't the guy to draft. When he has his stuff he can dominate (obviously) but he isn't mentally tough enough to be a true ace. If he doesn't bring his best stuff or he falters with his control he doesn't know how to battle through the game without getting rocked.