Awesome posts by bog thus far, as I just got caught up with this thread. Absolute man crush for me heading into this year is Gavin Floyd, and I know some people have been warning others to stay away. I'm sure RRF knows more about his arsenal and how it's been coming along this season, but his 2nd half last year was a spectacular turn around that I enjoy seeing in a pitcher that so many people gave up on early in the season, only to watch him bloom like a beautiful flower down the stretch.
I also think C.J. Wilson is a guy most people are staying away from, but for the wrong reasons. Are they scared of the inconsistency that we see in the 2010 game log and the fact that he was a converted reliever and added more innings last season? I saw a guy who IMO minus one or two starts always had excellent control and command. I'm not sure what his BABIP was last season, but he was just unlucky a bit last year that when he did hang the one meatball over the plate - it happened to be the 3-run jack. I believe he will be one of the more consistent pitchers this year with an excellent K/9. The proof was in the 2010 game log, he's pitched gems before. I'm not giving up yet.
My value list - you guys can agree and disagree, but tell me if there's certain guys you're absolutely staying away from, guys you'd rank above others, but this is my own personal cheat sheet of guys I believe will yield better results than their ADP's. I like to cut out the b.s. of projections and go for guys who are going to be studs and already are (guys who won't devalue themselves for 2011).
Justin Verlander (more wins in 2011, ERA and WHIP remain about the same in Detroit)
Cole Hamels (Hamels could get better, but still showed some control issues in 2010)
Tommy Hanson (better than Kershaw for 2011 I believe, has better ADP as well)
Chris Carpenter (until he reinjures himself, was quietly one of the best pitchers last year again) - edit: he strained his hamstring Tuesday
Dan Haren (2nd half fade may happen, but for what he did in Anaheim last season, I'm willing to gamble on a full season turnaround)
Max Scherzer (see other posts in this thread)
Matt Garza (his transition to the NL may help improve his numbers, but I'll never forget how bad he can be at times)
Johan Santana (if there's one Met worth owning, it's him, even if he comes back in July, he could be the guy to carry you in the 2nd half)
- One hitter I'm looking forward to hopefully breaking out, Nats Michael Morse. Hopefully he gets the playing time. Let me know your thoughts on this list, there are some later picks that are obviously sketchy and all about upside and innings limits, I also didn't include my relievers on here, but I think this is a fairly decent list of later round gems that I wouldn't consider a "wasted" pick.