floridamach1

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About floridamach1

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  1. I knew it. As soon as I saw McGowan come in. What a bum.
  2. Thanks, bog. That was my thinking as well. I still have my apprehensions as he has only been back in the States for a year but his ratios got better in the second half despite the fears he was "Falling to earth." Also, Arlington is far from a pitcher's park but playing the Mariners and As is nice.
  3. Bog- he was discussed a few times but what are your thoughts on Colby Lewis and his sustained success in 2011? His improved K and BB rates are great to see and I do like what Texas does with their SP.
  4. Bog- I am interested to hear your thoughts on Haren. Forgive me if you mentioned it already, I did a search and didn't find your opinion. He definitely had issues with the long ball last year and was a bit unlucky. But his K-Rate was still excellent and he is being drafted much lower than last year. He is being drafted with Greinke and Gallardo and I see him with more potential for a 3.00 ERA season than those guys.
  5. Bogfella- What are your thoughts on Wade Davis this year? I love prospect-pedigree pitchers who have underperformed. His K-Rate last year seemed way out of whack...
  6. In my reallllly deep leagues I may target one of either James Shields or Wade Davis. I am a believer in Davis' potential and it isn't some run-of-the-mill #5. He may not have a #1 ceiling but there is no reason he can't deliver solid stats. David Price wasn't all sunshine and rainbows in 2009, either. Shields experienced a good increase in velocity on his FB. He saw his best K-Rate and definitely got a little unlikely. Neither of these guys will single-handedly win your league but the could be decent back of the rotation guys. I think Harang could bounce back decently in Petco. His K-Rate needs to return to career norms but he was unlucky last year and Petco is Petco. Finally, I like Travis Wood if he earns a rotation spot. He doesn't walk that many guys, his K-Rate should bounce up a little, and he was even a little unlucky last year. None of these guys are exciting of course, but I used the exciting + on Chacin, Minor, Hudson, Kennedy, Marcum, etc...
  7. I think you are missing my point. I wasn't talking about luck. Who could have known that Bautista would outperform A-Rod? I'm not talking about anomaly-Brad Anderson seasons. Bautista, Huff, KJ all had career years. Prospects like Heyward, Stanton and Posey often do provide great value as they come into their own. However, there are always the Sniders and LaPortas of the world. You can't cherry-pick outlier years for players. Back to the point, the bolded statement is the definition of value. On average, you can find pitchers much much later in the draft (or cheaper) who will have stats closer to, or better than, the top picks. Don't believe me? Compare Greinke Kershaw. Compare Verlander to Latos. At least recently, it is easier to target pitchers who will provide great VALUE by delivering top-notch statistics without using a top pick. That is why I say I favor the 2nd point Bog made. I would rather take the safest early round pick. And if a 10th round pitcher can give 1st round pitcher stats, I would rather take the hitter in hopes there will be some statistical disparity between the 10th round hitter and the 1st.
  8. Great thoughts, Bog. I favor 2. much more. For those who took Lince in the 1st last year, wow. I took Ubaldo with the 98th pick and I was able to take Miggy in the 1st round. I will take Miggy/Ubaldo over Lince/Laroche or Lince/Pena any day, obviously. Finding value in pitching is easier than in hitting, IMO, and it is essential to build a solid team. What are everyone's thoughts on Mike Minor this year?
  9. PhilaFanBoy- Disagreement is what this whole thing is about Don't be afraid to make your opinions. RRF- Agreed on the mismatching of starters for the most part, and Hamels is still good enough where I am sure he will face Aces from time to time, but my point is that a team is more likely to use their Aces against another team's Ace, whenever possible. For example, the Marlins are more likely to throw JJ or Nolasco out there than Anibal Sanchez, if at all possible, against Lee, Halladay or Oswalt. Thus, it is more likely, given that scenario, that Hamels gets Nate Robertson, which is pretty good for his odds of a win. That being said, I agree that wins are overrated. However, it gives CC and Hughes a lot more value to have nearly 20 wins (not that their other stats weren't useful). I personally play in QS leagues almost exclusively. I think QS are still a lousy indicator sometimes because it amounts to a 4.50 ERA, but that's besides the point. Sure, wins are over-valued in their own right, but if it's a Cat. in your league, ya gotta chase it. But, back to Hamels, I do believe he is a great value. He is being drafted as barely a top 20 SP, if that, and I think he will match that mark. I wouldn't be surprised to see Oswalt surprise some people and fall off a little bit. His K-Rate was a little inflated last year. But he and Hamels are definitely under-valued in the shadows of Halladay and Lee. The Phillies have a legitimate shot of having 4 Top-20 SP which is unreal. As for Hell-Boy, I love his stuff. His control is already elite for someone his age, he strikes out a batter per inning. These are great. The only thing that may hold his value at a decent level is his struggle in the bullpen last year. Otherwise, we could see a Daniel Hudson situation, where the guy is a huge sleeper and he goes wayyy too early for my taste.
  10. Sorry, but I respectfully disagree with every single one of these. Clay is a good young pitcher, but he will be drafted for last year's numbers, and frankly, he won't deliver even close to those. Not with that K-Rate. As I mentioned earlier, I don't dislike Sanchez's value. But, this is the + I probably disagree most. He has a great K-Rate and I am a total sucker for high-K pitchers. However, his FIP was right in line with his career average last year, and yet this was his best ERA yet. By far. He walked 4 and a half guys per nine innings last year. Look for that WHIP and ERA to do some major regression. He will have a good K-Rate but look for an ERA more around 4. I love Hellickson. I am a Rays fanboy and I have a mancrush on Hellickson. But he will be overvalued this year. Guaranteed. Think Brett Anderson last year. I also disagree on Hamels. He had a K-Rate over 9 last year, he has had a FIP under 4 for 5 straight years, and most notably.......he is the FOURTH STARTER on his team. You realize what kind of goobers he will be facing? He will definitely improve on those 12 wins.
  11. I think he is referring to Marcum, who is now with the Brewers. I love love love Marcum this year. I think he does very well as a #3 SP in the NL. Big + for me (if he hasn't been mentioned)
  12. Jhoulys Chacin + Gio Gonzalez + Tommy Hanson + (I know, not exactly a sleeper) Francisco Liriano + (Ditto) Shaun Marcum + Dan Hudson + Brett Meyers + Edinson Volquez + Homer Bailey + Mike Minor + Bud Norris + Scott Baker + Trevor Cahill + Jorge de la Rosa + These are the guys I will be targeting. I like them all much later. I will likely wait a while and draft Kershaw, Hanson or Liriano as my SP1 and go from there. Chris Carpenter - Josh Beckett - Javy Vazquez - Edwin Jackson - David Price - And then some guys I like their value but it isn't astounding: Brett Anderson = Phil Hughes = Mat Latos = Colby Lewis = Jonathon Sanchez = Ricky Romero = Not sure what you see in Maya. His peripherals aren't very great, his K-Rate is lowish and his stuff doesn't seem overpowering. He is no spring chicken and his control isn't that great. To each his own though