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Everything posted by JFS179

  1. I see your 10 @kidtwentytwo. I'll take a stab ... 1. Pete Alonso hits over .275 with 40+ HRs and solidifies himself as a late first rounder in 2021. 2. One of the Newcomb, Wright, or King Felix finishes as a top-50 SP 3. Hunter Harvey has more than 25 saves. Andres Munoz gets 15+ himself after the trade deadline. 4. Danny Jansen has the breakout catcher year everyone expected last year - .270+ AVG with 20+ HRs. 5. David Price wins 15+ games with 175+ Ks. 6. So does Kenta Maeda for the Twins. 7. Ke'Bryan Hayes posts a 15/15 season. Pirates OFs combine for 50+ steals. 8. Austin Riley has a vintage Troy Glaus season - .250+, 30+, 100+ 9. Half of the top-20 closers by March NFBC ADP lose their jobs at some point in the season, whether due to injury, trade, or performance. 10. Oakland, Minnesota, and Tampa win their divisions with NYY and HOU taking the wild cards. Atlanta, St. Louis, and Los Angeles win their divisions with Cincinnati and Philadelphia winning wild cards.
  2. Trevor Gott seems like a dark horse for the Giants closer. Blew three fastballs by Trout the other day. I’ll also add that Farhan Zaidi was in the booth during a spring training game the other day and said Watson was basically 7th/8th inning guy. Shaun Anderson is competing for a starting role, and with the injury to Beede, they’ve got to have someone eat innings in the rotation. IIRC, when Anderson pitcher out of the pen last year (with success), Gott was injured. Gott has looked incredible this spring, the GM mentioned him by name as a closing option over the more heavily speculated Watson ... I’d watch this one very closely.
  3. Can’t believe we’re three pages in and nobody mentioned the most unlikely perfect game in MLB history (outside of Dallas Braden’s perhaps): PHILIP HUMBER
  4. I don’t think he was drafted with the expectation he’d hit .220, especially since he’s not exactly known for his glove. Hit tools are incredibly hard to project. Maybe he turns into Gallo at C. Maybe he’s Tyler Flowers.
  5. We see things differently. Youth movement - fine. Semantics. And they absolutely held Acuña down for service time reasons. Without question.
  6. Perhaps I am missing your point. Please enlighten me. It sounds as if you're arguing the Marlins are bad for the game by not playing their best players. I, and others, have pointed out that they're proceeding with the best course for their franchise under the current system. So if it's bad for their fans, I'd hope their fans understand the system and trust the process. I don't disagree that the system isn't ideal and shouldn't be changed. But under the current system, I don't understand how what they're doing is bad for the game, which is what you're arguing. Which part of the game is it bad for, specifically? ETA: From 2010-2013, the Braves picked no higher than 21st and secured such luminaries as Matt Lipka, Sean Gilmartin, Lucas Sims, and Jason Hursch. They gave up their 2014 first rounder to sign Ervin Santana, the same year they signed BJ Upton. They finished 79-83 and started the rebuild after that. In 2015, the Braves picked 14, 28, and 41 in the 2015 draft - Allard, Soroka, and Riley In 2016 they picked 3, 40, 44 - adding Ian Anderson, Wentz, and Muller Their tear down trades included acquisitions of guys like Folty, Newcomb, Swanson, Touissant, etc. Their scouting department has been outstanding - without question - and they've done exceedingly well internationally (prior to the Coppy penalties). But those drafts (and the ones after 2016) rebuilt the farm system, without question, which (along with strong player development) has positioned them where they are now.
  7. I think the outrage over a team doing what's best to build a consistent winner is misplaced, yes. And I don't see it as bad for the game. I'm quite happy Atlanta tore things down and rebuilt ... look where they are now. As a fan, I'd much rather my team do that than hang out in no man's land, never good enough to win, and never bad enough to get the elite prospects.
  8. No one in Houston is complaining these days. Same arguments were made about them. Washington did the same thing before that. It's the current CBA ...
  9. I don't disagree with this at all ... I think it's kind of the confluence of events: not on 40-man, didn't line up perfectly, Hernandez and Yammamoto have pitched well, etc.
  10. I think it's more likely we see Vaughn before Rutschman because of two things: 1) Competitive cycle of the Orioles (in the AL East) vs. White Sox (in a wide open AL Central) 2) Position - catchers almost always are slower to the bigs than any other positon Rutschman is widely considered to be a plus defender already, and the bat is comparable to Vaughn. If the Orioles are comfortable starting his service time clock, I think Rutschman could come up in mid-late 2020 and start to shape the culture of that team, improve all the pitchers, get his feet wet against MLB pitching, etc. But if you're the Orioles, cruising to another top-5 pick, and probably still getting pounded next year, does it make any sense to do that? Why not wait until a few weeks into 2021 and pick up that extra year of control for the guy that's supposed to be the face of your franchise? Also, consider the case of Danny Jansen, a catcher that hit exceedingly well in AAA and his big league debut (in enough of a sample to take seriously), and now he's just completely overwhelmed. It does make some sense to get Rutschman through that phase while the team isn't in the thick of a pennant race. On the other hand, Vaughn can play 1B or DH, has just an advanced bat, and would be joining a team with Moncada and Eloy as the faces of the franchise. Plus I think the White Sox are way closer to competing in the AL Central. Vaughn up mid-late next year won't surprise me at all.
  11. Probably so, but the date is fluid, obviously.
  12. He's basically in the first week of Spring training ... guessing he's up after the break. Late-July to early-August.
  13. I don't disagree the Super-2 and arbitration system in general need an overhaul (and probably get one under the new CBA), but I can't really fault the Marlins for this. They're going nowhere ... might as well wait a few more weeks to save millions in payroll when you're a "Garbage a** organization" as you say, which I don't disagree with one bit.
  14. This feels like guaranteed Super-2 manipulation. Idk how long Ureña is projected to miss, but I can’t imagine Gallen isn’t called up if Yamamoto and/or Hernandez are shelled and there’s an open rotation spot. I think they’re trying to get as late in June as possible as the Super-2 date is usually right around this time.
  15. I know Eric and Kiley rank for real life and emphasize that a ton in their rankings. Law does as well, in theory ... I just don't think he's as good at it. I've seen the Fangraphs guys be exceedingly conservative on some guys as a result ... leads to weird rankings sometimes.
  16. The bolded kind of confused me a little. Eric started at Fangraphs, then was hired away by ESPN, and then was hired back at Fangraphs. His time at ESPN increased his profile, but I don't really see him as a Keith Law disciple. The thing I most enjoy about the Fangraphs output is that I know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that those guys have very high connections with a ton of front offices. You could argue they get bad info at times to try to manipulate the marketplace, but they've both done enough professional scouting (especially Kiley) to see through that smoke in most cases.
  17. What's even more absurd about the whole non-ranking is that 1B (while probably Yordan's "best" position) isn't where he played the majority of the time this year. One of the smartest organizations in baseball is trying like hell to make him a LF. So IMO Yordan has three paths to playing time on that team, and the bat would play on any team. Law just missed and doesn't want to cop to it.
  18. The meteoric rise of the uber-young players will come as extended spring training starts to slow down and we see guys get assigned to rookie ball and short season leagues. That's when the breakouts arrive.
  19. Not sure of the exact archiving rules on the forums, but there used to be a Mateo thread. It doesn't show up in search because it's been archived, and thus is not open for replies. Just in case anyone wants a stroll down memory lane here.
  20. They either have to DFA someone or move someone to the 60-day IL to clear a 40-man roster spot. Those candidates include O’Brien, Wallach, Berti, or Neil Walker. Berti seems most likely with an oblique.
  21. He’s a reliever. Smith’s next turn is Tuesday, I believe.
  22. But those aspirations for Shewmake are as short-sighted as not drafting a prospect because he plays a position that's currently filled on the big league roster. A LOT changes in 3 years. I just expected more, and that's the entire problem here ... expectations for the Braves drafts and scouting in general were sky high under Bridges and Clark while Coppy was GM. AA shows up and things immediately take a drastic turn for the worse when the draft takes on heightened importance for Atlanta given the international penalties. In 2015, Coppy (with Bridges and Clark running the scouting office) landed Allard, Soroka, Riley, and Minter with four of their first five picks. In 2016, the same FO landed Anderson, Wentz, Muller, and Bryse Wilson with four of its first six picks. In 2017, the same FO landed Wright, Drew Waters, and Tarnok with their first three picks. That's a remarkable run of successful drafting. AA shows up in 2018, and while it's admittedly still early to judge, they don't sign their first rounder, and have a 2018 draft class top-5 of Greyson Jenista, Tristan Beck, Trey Riley, Andrew Moritz, and Brooks Wilson. Jenista and Beck a year later don't crack the top-10 in the org. MLB pipeline ranks them 13th and 14th respectively. Riley is 18th. Moritz and Wilson don't show up in the top-30. It's a loaded org, and had Stewart signed, perhaps this all looks better ... but given the success Coppy led in the draft, and given the results of the first draft under AA, and given the fact that this is the first draft after AA cleaned house on the scouting side and brought in his new director of scouting (same guy he worked with in Toronto), I'm not exactly enthused by the direction this is heading when it's left so many industry analysts kinda scratching their heads as to what the Braves are doing. If Coppy was leading this draft with Bridges and Clark running the scouting side, they'd have earned the benefit of the doubt. AA most certainly hasn't.
  23. I didn't love the Langeliers pick, but it was defensible. Real life value for Cs is off the charts, and if he's at worst a plus defender at C, you could argue the pick is worth it. I think they're betting on the come with the bat, however, based on the broken hamate bone he suffered this season. The McDongenhagen duo slapped a 50 hit 50 power ceiling on Langeliers, and quickly pointed out that catchers rarely reach their offensive ceilings. I presumed they were making that pick to go overslot at 21 with one of the high upside prep players. Instead, they took Shewmake, who by most consensus rankings, was a reach to be kind. I've seen the Zobrist comps, and I certainly believe that's what they think they're getting - it's the only way to justify the pick. Again, perhaps he's a below-slot signing as well. So you're left believing they'll go above slot at 60. Instead, another curve ball with a guy WAYYYYYY down the board in Phillip. Some of my frustration is allocation of resources. Some of my frustration is drafting these guys when I believed (and the industry consensus believed) there were far more talented players on the board. They've drafted three guys that should all, conceivably, sign for below slot bonuses. That assumes you spend the savings at some point. Maybe that comes today, but I believe in drafting for upside, not minor league depth. This draft feels like they did the latter - aiming for Tony Graffanino types. I certainly hope I'm wrong.
  24. As a Braves fan, I'm rather furious about last night ... just hoping AA doesn't run them into the ground.