wily mo

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wily mo last won the day on May 11 2017

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About wily mo

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  1. for the dodgers here, i totally forgot that AJ pollock existed. he's probably the biggest beneficiary, unless he continues to just totally suck
  2. in my league we've been playing with the idea of running simultaneous matchups - playing two different opponents in the same week it'd be pretty weird in a lot of ways, but, this year is weird, just gotta do the best we can with what we've got most league hosts won't offer this, of course, but with some offline tracking you could probably DIY it and maybe manually set your playoff brackets accordingly we're weird because we run on our own custom website so we can do whatever we want otherwise all you can really do is either just play the 13 weeks or cut the week in half and play 3-day matchups. but that'd be basically just flipping a coin
  3. no idea if the NL DH thing will happen or not but it's fun to think about. jumping off from @Sidearmer's post with some team-specific thoughts of my own - dbacks: lamb probably benefits a lot but don't forget about kevin cron, who's basically a second copy of christian walker only with even more insane AAA numbers cubs: don't disagree with the basic take but could also see victor caratini sneaking into the mix, and it would be pretty easy for backup catcher PAs plus some DH time to make him a viable C1 play in deeper leagues reds: it really smelled like aquino wasn't even making the team. it would benefit winker and senzel a lot, and i think even vanmeter is ahead of aquino right now dodgers: lux, muncy and turner were all starters already, unless they service timed lux. it probably adds some security for lux. no doubt helps keekay and taylor. but the guy that i could see really claiming the spot is matt beaty. edwin rios is also there. but beaty had a really good run last year cardinals: great for edman, also don't overlook rangel ravelo, who they've been grooming to take the jose martinez role
  4. kind of an interesting one is rafael dolis. used to be a cubs prospect, jays signed him last month after a few years in japan. he pitched a little in the majors back in the day but is still under the 50 IP rookie cap. jays signed him to a big league deal and he's lined up for a setup role in their pen, and could even ascend to closer if he does well and giles is traded. has good stuff, 97 heavy FB etc. just had his appendix out today apparently so he might start the season on the DL but he's more of a long-term play anyway some other names not already mentioned - (not sure about service time on these, just the IP/AB limit) - austin hays, seth brown, mauricio dubon, abraham toro, tony gonsolin, andres munoz, emmanuel clase, ryan helsley. brendan mckay right on 49 IP
  5. wily mo

    FYPD

    ok here's my draft through the mid 6th round. (see my earlier posts on this thread for league context) 1.1 (1) Adley Rutschman, C (BAL)1.2 (2) CJ Abrams, SS (SD)1.3 (3) Andrew Vaughn, 1B (CWS)1.4 (4) Jasson Dominguez, OF (NYY)1.5 (5) Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, OF (TB)1.6 (6) JJ Bleday, OF (MIA)1.7 (7) Josh Jung, 3B (TEX)1.8 (8) Bobby Witt Jr, SS (KC)1.9 (9) Nick Lodolo, SP (CIN)1.10 (10) Kwang-Hyun Kim, SP (STL)1.11 (11) Bryson Stott, SS (PHI)1.12 (12) Hunter Bishop, OF (SF)1.13 (13) Corbin Carroll, OF (ARI)1.14 (14) Riley Greene, OF (DET)1.15 (15) Noelvi Marte, SS (SEA)1.16 (16) George Kirby, SP (SEA)2.1 (17) Kody Hoese, 3B (LAD)2.2 (18) Peyton Burdick, OF (MIA)2.3 (19) Jackson Rutledge, SP (WAS)2.4 (20) Alek Manoah, SP (TOR)2.5 (21) Brent Honeywell, SP (TB)2.6 (22) Daniel Espino, SP (CLE)2.7 (23) Greg Jones, SS (TBR)2.8 (24) Michael Toglia, 1B (COL)2.9 (25) Colton Welker, 1B/3B (COL)2.10 (26) Michael Busch, 2B (LAD)2.11 (27) Shogo Akiyama, OF (CIN)2.12 (28) Brett Baty, 3B (NYM)2.13 (29) Cal Raleigh, C (SEA)2.14 (30) Zack Thompson, SP (STL)2.15 (31) Matthew Allan, SP (NYM)2.16 (32) Mickey Moniak, OF (PHI)3.1 (33) Kameron Misner, OF (MIA)3.2 (34) T.J. Sikkema, SP (NYY)3.3 (35) Isaiah Campbell, SP (SEA)3.4 (36) Quinn Priester, SP (PIT)3.5 (37) Braden Shewmake, SS (ATL)3.6 (38) Braxton Garrett, SP (MIA)3.7 (39) Christian Koss, 2B/SS/3B (COL)3.8 (40) Adonis Medina, SP (PHI)3.9 (41) Will Wilson, 2B/SS (SF)3.10 (42) Oswald Peraza, SS (NYY)3.11 (43) Francisco Alvarez, C (NYM)3.12 (44) Tucupita Marcano, 2B/SS/3B (SD)3.13 (45) Jonathan Stiever, RHP (CWS)3.14 (46) Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B (KC)3.15 (47) Shea Langeliers C (ATL)4.1 (48) Liover Peguero, SS (PIT)4.2 (49) Tristin English, 3B/OF (ARI)4.3 (50) Tyler Nevin, 1B (COL)4.4 (51) Jared Oliva, OF (PIT)4.5 (52) Andy Pages, OF (LAD)4.6 (53) Hudson Head, OF (SD)4.7 (54) Aaron Bracho, 2B (CLE)4.8 (55) Alexander Canario, OF (SF)4.9 (56) Justin Williams, OF (STL)4.10 (57) Francisco Morales, SP (PHI)4.11 (58) Lewis Thorpe, SP (MIN)4.12 (59) Blake Walston, SP (ARI)4.13 (60) Austin Allen, C (OAK)4.14 (61) Matthew Wallner, OF (MIN)4.15 (62) Drew Mendoza, 1B (WAS)4.16 (63) Robert Puason, SS (OAK)5.1 (64) Franklyn Kilome, SP (NYM)5.2 (65) Ronaldo Hernandez, C (TAM)5.3 (66) Bryce Ball, 1B (ATL)5.4 (67) Noah Song, SP (BOS)5.5 (68) Tony Santillan, SP (CIN)5.6 (69) Shun Yamaguchi, SP (TOR)5.7 (70) John Doxakis, SP (TBR)5.8 (71) Ethan Small, SP (MIL)5.9 (72) Tahnaj Thomas, SP (PIT)5.10 (73) Diego Cartaya, C (LAD)5.11 (74) Brennan Malone, SP (PIT)6.1 (75) Bailey Ober, SP (MIN)6.2 (76) Roansy Contreras, SP (NYY)6.3 (77) Davis Wendzel, 3B (TEX)6.4 (78) Sterling Sharp, SP (WAS)6.5 (79) Bayron Lora, OF (TEX) broadly speaking, latin players tend to be good values because the absence of a draft framework makes them harder to peg
  6. wily mo

    FYPD

    it's controversial. some people are saying they didn't have him in their top 30 for that reason. don't want to get too deep into the weeds of our specific league format, but a little info probably will help you guys process these picks anyway, so - basically your team is a 40-man roster of big leaguers that are paid money out of a $100m cap, and then 25 minor league slots that don't cost anything. the league has contracts, max length 5 years, so it's kind of a missing link between redraft and dynasty. all minor league contracts are 3 years long. when they end, you have to put the guy on your 40-man, but his cost is determined by a fixed arb bracket - for example you can sign him for $400k for 1 year, or $3M for 5 years. or a range in between. so it's kind of like real-life cost control period, he's not exposed to any competitive bidding like the rest of the older players. i could go on, but that's the basic idea. so the guy who picked jasson is hoping that these "switch-hitting mike trout" comps are, you know, true, and either he'll shoot up to the majors by 19 juan soto style, or at least it'll be obvious enough that he's awesome to where it makes sense to drop the 5-year arb deal on him. usually the teams that win this league are the ones that manage to get 4 or 5 young stars on those $3x5 deals at the same time, so that's what everybody's trying to do. they're willing to even eat the first year or 2 of the 5 with him still in the minors if it means getting a star after that. the guy who took jasson at 4 is the same guy who managed to get both trout and harper at the same time in a 16-team league, so. i'm not betting against him. the prejudice against 17-year-old J2 guys used to be stronger, but soto and wander have got everyone a little juiced. i actually picked up wander as a free agent, that's how hard everybody was passing on those guys just a little while ago anyway here are some more picks 2.4 (20) Alek Manoah, SP (TOR)2.5 (21) Brent Honeywell, SP (TB)2.6 (22) Daniel Espino, SP (CLE)2.7 (23) Greg Jones, SS (TBR)2.8 (24) Michael Toglia, 1B (COL)2.9 (25) Colton Welker, 1B/3B (COL)2.10 (26) Michael Busch, 2B (LAD)2.11 (27) Shogo Akiyama, OF (CIN)2.12 (28) Brett Baty, 3B (NYM)2.13 (29) Cal Raleigh, C (SEA) as you can see it's not strictly a FYPD, either, there are some wildcat unowned players in the mix. i actually find that useful as a kind of range finder for how people are valuing the first-year guys
  7. wily mo

    FYPD

    okay here's our draft up to where we are now. keep in mind the above - not pure dynasty, 3-year rookie deals & then into an arbitration system which means every year further away from the majors docks some value, so college > HS > J2 all else being equal 1.1 (1) Adley Rutschman, C (BAL) 1.2 (2) CJ Abrams, SS (SD) 1.3 (3) Andrew Vaughn, 1B (CWS) 1.4 (4) Jasson Dominguez, OF (NYY) 1.5 (5) Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, OF (TB) 1.6 (6) JJ Bleday, OF (MIA) 1.7 (7) Josh Jung, 3B (TEX) 1.8 (8) Bobby Witt Jr, SS (KC) 1.9 (9) Nick Lodolo, SP (CIN) 1.10 (10) Kwang-Hyun Kim, SP (STL) 1.11 (11) Bryson Stott, SS (PHI) 1.12 (12) Hunter Bishop, OF (SF) 1.13 (13) Corbin Carroll, OF (ARI) 1.14 (14) Riley Greene, OF (DET) 1.15 (15) Noelvi Marte, SS (SEA) 1.16 (16) George Kirby, SP (SEA) 2.1 (17) Kody Hoese, 3B (LAD) 2.2 (18) Peyton Burdick, OF (MIA) 2.3 (19) Jackson Rutledge, SP (WAS) more later
  8. wily mo

    FYPD

    my league's draft starts on saturday, i'll post some results as they happen. love to see results from other leagues, especially for what happens after the clear top tier goes. my league has 3-year rookie contracts which makes proximity/ETA much more important than in a strict dynasty scenario, so i'm pretty curious to see what happens with jasson. the top college bats always go first, so i'm pretty sure the adley / vaughn pair will go 1-2. after that things get interesting. you've got bleday as probably the next best college bat, vs. abrams and witt as the stud HS kids, vs. jasson. tsutsugo's also in the mix if you REALLY want proximity. not sure how it'll all shake out. luckily i pick 6th so most of these decisions will be made for me.
  9. yeah... it sounds like what the sox did isn't as bad as what the astros did (no dedicated camera or trashcan system, just some illicit peeking in the replay room), but the fact that they were already warned once before will count against them, so my guess is the punishment winds up in the same ballpark. but cora being in both places, could get rough
  10. i mean, it's the rays... people get in arguments about who their starters are even in the middle of the season. anyway it's too early to tell on something like this now. depends on other moves they make the rest of the offseason, what happens in the spring, who gets hurt, who gets hot. in theory it's really crowded, but also clearly they like him or they wouldn't have done this deal. he's got less experience than renfroe, who's probably his #1 competition for a significant spot as another RHH OF, but as a high-contact hitter he's probably less prone to crippling slumps than renfroe is, so that likely works in his favor. starting assumption has to be that he won't be a locked-in starter from day 1, and may not even make the team out of spring, but has a pretty good chance to grow into a sustantial role over the course of the year. so his 2020 value will be pretty league type dependent. not a guy you'd probably draft in march in a standard yahoo league, but a good stash in anything deep.
  11. yeah. most of the people who don't like the deal for tampa, i'm seeing them analyze it as basically liberatore-for-jomart with at best kind of a hand-wave at the other stuff in the deal, which is understandable just because arozarena hasn't gotten a lot of press and most people don't know much about him. but i think arozarena is actually the #1 player in the deal for them. like, check out his numbers from last year https://www.fangraphs.com/players/randy-arozarena/19290/stats?position=OF even klaw, who's usually pretty sarcastic about players like this, doesn't completely dismiss the idea of him hitting enough to be a regular in LF, which is a pretty high bar offensively. he does say it's an unusual profile, that's probably going to depend on maintaining a .300-ish BA, but he seems to think it's possible. arozarena's never struck out much and seemed to take a fairly big step forward last year even accounting for the ball.
  12. even with aguilar gone they still have to fit him into one of four spots along with yelich / cain / braun / thames, so he's probably not gonna be an everyday guy. in a vacuum you can say just make thames / braun a platoon, but ryan braun is ryan braun so it's hard to see his PT being reduced quite that much.
  13. even in that angels start, IIRC he got through two innings with 4 Ks, one baserunner ... i looked in on him at that point was like "ok cool", went back to work - looked again an hour later and had to cover my eyes because he had just melted. so really it was just one bad inning. rookie pitchers will do that. granted, that one bad inning was IMPRESSIVELY bad. but. still
  14. note that he had a relatively slow april in AA too, and then started hitting like crazy starting in may. so the explosion didn't really start in AAA, i grabbed him while he was still in AA because he had started going off there. in case anyone's worried that it's just the new improved AAA baseball helping him
  15. logging in for the first time in a while... only 3 pages on the lourdes thread? i'm disappointed in you all i've been hoping for this kind of thing ever since that 11-game multi-hit streak last year. only 7 other players in history had streaks that long, and they were 6 hall of famers and shoeless joe jackson. so, not the kind of thing you just fluke into, apparently looks like he's gonna be an OF long-term, which is too bad, but if getting his mind off infield defense allows him to hit like this, i guess i'll allow it