wily mo

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Everything posted by wily mo

  1. for the dodgers here, i totally forgot that AJ pollock existed. he's probably the biggest beneficiary, unless he continues to just totally suck
  2. in my league we've been playing with the idea of running simultaneous matchups - playing two different opponents in the same week it'd be pretty weird in a lot of ways, but, this year is weird, just gotta do the best we can with what we've got most league hosts won't offer this, of course, but with some offline tracking you could probably DIY it and maybe manually set your playoff brackets accordingly we're weird because we run on our own custom website so we can do whatever we want otherwise all you can really do is either just play the 13 weeks or cut the week in half and play 3-day matchups. but that'd be basically just flipping a coin
  3. no idea if the NL DH thing will happen or not but it's fun to think about. jumping off from @Sidearmer's post with some team-specific thoughts of my own - dbacks: lamb probably benefits a lot but don't forget about kevin cron, who's basically a second copy of christian walker only with even more insane AAA numbers cubs: don't disagree with the basic take but could also see victor caratini sneaking into the mix, and it would be pretty easy for backup catcher PAs plus some DH time to make him a viable C1 play in deeper leagues reds: it really smelled like aquino wasn't even making the team. it would benefit winker and senzel a lot, and i think even vanmeter is ahead of aquino right now dodgers: lux, muncy and turner were all starters already, unless they service timed lux. it probably adds some security for lux. no doubt helps keekay and taylor. but the guy that i could see really claiming the spot is matt beaty. edwin rios is also there. but beaty had a really good run last year cardinals: great for edman, also don't overlook rangel ravelo, who they've been grooming to take the jose martinez role
  4. kind of an interesting one is rafael dolis. used to be a cubs prospect, jays signed him last month after a few years in japan. he pitched a little in the majors back in the day but is still under the 50 IP rookie cap. jays signed him to a big league deal and he's lined up for a setup role in their pen, and could even ascend to closer if he does well and giles is traded. has good stuff, 97 heavy FB etc. just had his appendix out today apparently so he might start the season on the DL but he's more of a long-term play anyway some other names not already mentioned - (not sure about service time on these, just the IP/AB limit) - austin hays, seth brown, mauricio dubon, abraham toro, tony gonsolin, andres munoz, emmanuel clase, ryan helsley. brendan mckay right on 49 IP
  5. wily mo

    FYPD

    ok here's my draft through the mid 6th round. (see my earlier posts on this thread for league context) 1.1 (1) Adley Rutschman, C (BAL)1.2 (2) CJ Abrams, SS (SD)1.3 (3) Andrew Vaughn, 1B (CWS)1.4 (4) Jasson Dominguez, OF (NYY)1.5 (5) Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, OF (TB)1.6 (6) JJ Bleday, OF (MIA)1.7 (7) Josh Jung, 3B (TEX)1.8 (8) Bobby Witt Jr, SS (KC)1.9 (9) Nick Lodolo, SP (CIN)1.10 (10) Kwang-Hyun Kim, SP (STL)1.11 (11) Bryson Stott, SS (PHI)1.12 (12) Hunter Bishop, OF (SF)1.13 (13) Corbin Carroll, OF (ARI)1.14 (14) Riley Greene, OF (DET)1.15 (15) Noelvi Marte, SS (SEA)1.16 (16) George Kirby, SP (SEA)2.1 (17) Kody Hoese, 3B (LAD)2.2 (18) Peyton Burdick, OF (MIA)2.3 (19) Jackson Rutledge, SP (WAS)2.4 (20) Alek Manoah, SP (TOR)2.5 (21) Brent Honeywell, SP (TB)2.6 (22) Daniel Espino, SP (CLE)2.7 (23) Greg Jones, SS (TBR)2.8 (24) Michael Toglia, 1B (COL)2.9 (25) Colton Welker, 1B/3B (COL)2.10 (26) Michael Busch, 2B (LAD)2.11 (27) Shogo Akiyama, OF (CIN)2.12 (28) Brett Baty, 3B (NYM)2.13 (29) Cal Raleigh, C (SEA)2.14 (30) Zack Thompson, SP (STL)2.15 (31) Matthew Allan, SP (NYM)2.16 (32) Mickey Moniak, OF (PHI)3.1 (33) Kameron Misner, OF (MIA)3.2 (34) T.J. Sikkema, SP (NYY)3.3 (35) Isaiah Campbell, SP (SEA)3.4 (36) Quinn Priester, SP (PIT)3.5 (37) Braden Shewmake, SS (ATL)3.6 (38) Braxton Garrett, SP (MIA)3.7 (39) Christian Koss, 2B/SS/3B (COL)3.8 (40) Adonis Medina, SP (PHI)3.9 (41) Will Wilson, 2B/SS (SF)3.10 (42) Oswald Peraza, SS (NYY)3.11 (43) Francisco Alvarez, C (NYM)3.12 (44) Tucupita Marcano, 2B/SS/3B (SD)3.13 (45) Jonathan Stiever, RHP (CWS)3.14 (46) Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B (KC)3.15 (47) Shea Langeliers C (ATL)4.1 (48) Liover Peguero, SS (PIT)4.2 (49) Tristin English, 3B/OF (ARI)4.3 (50) Tyler Nevin, 1B (COL)4.4 (51) Jared Oliva, OF (PIT)4.5 (52) Andy Pages, OF (LAD)4.6 (53) Hudson Head, OF (SD)4.7 (54) Aaron Bracho, 2B (CLE)4.8 (55) Alexander Canario, OF (SF)4.9 (56) Justin Williams, OF (STL)4.10 (57) Francisco Morales, SP (PHI)4.11 (58) Lewis Thorpe, SP (MIN)4.12 (59) Blake Walston, SP (ARI)4.13 (60) Austin Allen, C (OAK)4.14 (61) Matthew Wallner, OF (MIN)4.15 (62) Drew Mendoza, 1B (WAS)4.16 (63) Robert Puason, SS (OAK)5.1 (64) Franklyn Kilome, SP (NYM)5.2 (65) Ronaldo Hernandez, C (TAM)5.3 (66) Bryce Ball, 1B (ATL)5.4 (67) Noah Song, SP (BOS)5.5 (68) Tony Santillan, SP (CIN)5.6 (69) Shun Yamaguchi, SP (TOR)5.7 (70) John Doxakis, SP (TBR)5.8 (71) Ethan Small, SP (MIL)5.9 (72) Tahnaj Thomas, SP (PIT)5.10 (73) Diego Cartaya, C (LAD)5.11 (74) Brennan Malone, SP (PIT)6.1 (75) Bailey Ober, SP (MIN)6.2 (76) Roansy Contreras, SP (NYY)6.3 (77) Davis Wendzel, 3B (TEX)6.4 (78) Sterling Sharp, SP (WAS)6.5 (79) Bayron Lora, OF (TEX) broadly speaking, latin players tend to be good values because the absence of a draft framework makes them harder to peg
  6. wily mo

    FYPD

    it's controversial. some people are saying they didn't have him in their top 30 for that reason. don't want to get too deep into the weeds of our specific league format, but a little info probably will help you guys process these picks anyway, so - basically your team is a 40-man roster of big leaguers that are paid money out of a $100m cap, and then 25 minor league slots that don't cost anything. the league has contracts, max length 5 years, so it's kind of a missing link between redraft and dynasty. all minor league contracts are 3 years long. when they end, you have to put the guy on your 40-man, but his cost is determined by a fixed arb bracket - for example you can sign him for $400k for 1 year, or $3M for 5 years. or a range in between. so it's kind of like real-life cost control period, he's not exposed to any competitive bidding like the rest of the older players. i could go on, but that's the basic idea. so the guy who picked jasson is hoping that these "switch-hitting mike trout" comps are, you know, true, and either he'll shoot up to the majors by 19 juan soto style, or at least it'll be obvious enough that he's awesome to where it makes sense to drop the 5-year arb deal on him. usually the teams that win this league are the ones that manage to get 4 or 5 young stars on those $3x5 deals at the same time, so that's what everybody's trying to do. they're willing to even eat the first year or 2 of the 5 with him still in the minors if it means getting a star after that. the guy who took jasson at 4 is the same guy who managed to get both trout and harper at the same time in a 16-team league, so. i'm not betting against him. the prejudice against 17-year-old J2 guys used to be stronger, but soto and wander have got everyone a little juiced. i actually picked up wander as a free agent, that's how hard everybody was passing on those guys just a little while ago anyway here are some more picks 2.4 (20) Alek Manoah, SP (TOR)2.5 (21) Brent Honeywell, SP (TB)2.6 (22) Daniel Espino, SP (CLE)2.7 (23) Greg Jones, SS (TBR)2.8 (24) Michael Toglia, 1B (COL)2.9 (25) Colton Welker, 1B/3B (COL)2.10 (26) Michael Busch, 2B (LAD)2.11 (27) Shogo Akiyama, OF (CIN)2.12 (28) Brett Baty, 3B (NYM)2.13 (29) Cal Raleigh, C (SEA) as you can see it's not strictly a FYPD, either, there are some wildcat unowned players in the mix. i actually find that useful as a kind of range finder for how people are valuing the first-year guys
  7. wily mo

    FYPD

    okay here's our draft up to where we are now. keep in mind the above - not pure dynasty, 3-year rookie deals & then into an arbitration system which means every year further away from the majors docks some value, so college > HS > J2 all else being equal 1.1 (1) Adley Rutschman, C (BAL) 1.2 (2) CJ Abrams, SS (SD) 1.3 (3) Andrew Vaughn, 1B (CWS) 1.4 (4) Jasson Dominguez, OF (NYY) 1.5 (5) Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, OF (TB) 1.6 (6) JJ Bleday, OF (MIA) 1.7 (7) Josh Jung, 3B (TEX) 1.8 (8) Bobby Witt Jr, SS (KC) 1.9 (9) Nick Lodolo, SP (CIN) 1.10 (10) Kwang-Hyun Kim, SP (STL) 1.11 (11) Bryson Stott, SS (PHI) 1.12 (12) Hunter Bishop, OF (SF) 1.13 (13) Corbin Carroll, OF (ARI) 1.14 (14) Riley Greene, OF (DET) 1.15 (15) Noelvi Marte, SS (SEA) 1.16 (16) George Kirby, SP (SEA) 2.1 (17) Kody Hoese, 3B (LAD) 2.2 (18) Peyton Burdick, OF (MIA) 2.3 (19) Jackson Rutledge, SP (WAS) more later
  8. wily mo

    FYPD

    my league's draft starts on saturday, i'll post some results as they happen. love to see results from other leagues, especially for what happens after the clear top tier goes. my league has 3-year rookie contracts which makes proximity/ETA much more important than in a strict dynasty scenario, so i'm pretty curious to see what happens with jasson. the top college bats always go first, so i'm pretty sure the adley / vaughn pair will go 1-2. after that things get interesting. you've got bleday as probably the next best college bat, vs. abrams and witt as the stud HS kids, vs. jasson. tsutsugo's also in the mix if you REALLY want proximity. not sure how it'll all shake out. luckily i pick 6th so most of these decisions will be made for me.
  9. yeah... it sounds like what the sox did isn't as bad as what the astros did (no dedicated camera or trashcan system, just some illicit peeking in the replay room), but the fact that they were already warned once before will count against them, so my guess is the punishment winds up in the same ballpark. but cora being in both places, could get rough
  10. i mean, it's the rays... people get in arguments about who their starters are even in the middle of the season. anyway it's too early to tell on something like this now. depends on other moves they make the rest of the offseason, what happens in the spring, who gets hurt, who gets hot. in theory it's really crowded, but also clearly they like him or they wouldn't have done this deal. he's got less experience than renfroe, who's probably his #1 competition for a significant spot as another RHH OF, but as a high-contact hitter he's probably less prone to crippling slumps than renfroe is, so that likely works in his favor. starting assumption has to be that he won't be a locked-in starter from day 1, and may not even make the team out of spring, but has a pretty good chance to grow into a sustantial role over the course of the year. so his 2020 value will be pretty league type dependent. not a guy you'd probably draft in march in a standard yahoo league, but a good stash in anything deep.
  11. yeah. most of the people who don't like the deal for tampa, i'm seeing them analyze it as basically liberatore-for-jomart with at best kind of a hand-wave at the other stuff in the deal, which is understandable just because arozarena hasn't gotten a lot of press and most people don't know much about him. but i think arozarena is actually the #1 player in the deal for them. like, check out his numbers from last year https://www.fangraphs.com/players/randy-arozarena/19290/stats?position=OF even klaw, who's usually pretty sarcastic about players like this, doesn't completely dismiss the idea of him hitting enough to be a regular in LF, which is a pretty high bar offensively. he does say it's an unusual profile, that's probably going to depend on maintaining a .300-ish BA, but he seems to think it's possible. arozarena's never struck out much and seemed to take a fairly big step forward last year even accounting for the ball.
  12. even with aguilar gone they still have to fit him into one of four spots along with yelich / cain / braun / thames, so he's probably not gonna be an everyday guy. in a vacuum you can say just make thames / braun a platoon, but ryan braun is ryan braun so it's hard to see his PT being reduced quite that much.
  13. even in that angels start, IIRC he got through two innings with 4 Ks, one baserunner ... i looked in on him at that point was like "ok cool", went back to work - looked again an hour later and had to cover my eyes because he had just melted. so really it was just one bad inning. rookie pitchers will do that. granted, that one bad inning was IMPRESSIVELY bad. but. still
  14. note that he had a relatively slow april in AA too, and then started hitting like crazy starting in may. so the explosion didn't really start in AAA, i grabbed him while he was still in AA because he had started going off there. in case anyone's worried that it's just the new improved AAA baseball helping him
  15. logging in for the first time in a while... only 3 pages on the lourdes thread? i'm disappointed in you all i've been hoping for this kind of thing ever since that 11-game multi-hit streak last year. only 7 other players in history had streaks that long, and they were 6 hall of famers and shoeless joe jackson. so, not the kind of thing you just fluke into, apparently looks like he's gonna be an OF long-term, which is too bad, but if getting his mind off infield defense allows him to hit like this, i guess i'll allow it
  16. sure. like, i get the conservatism given his long track record of not panning out. but for me the whole long odyssey he's been on, of "rebuilt swing last offseason, raked in AAA, got called up, raked in MLB for a week, then got concussed, saw double the rest of the year, now recovered and raking again" is pretty sultry. also re: his BB% - i mean, 13% is pretty good. but, the thing is, as of like a couple weeks ago it was down around 3%. then apparently the front office let it be known that they wanted to see more discipline to call him up, and lo and behold, for the last couple weeks he's been walking in like half of his PAs. i'm making that number up, but, he's been walking a lot. like a lot a lot. being able to turn it on and off like that is... interesting. "see boss? i can walk." i'm not even sure what it means. but it's interesting he's gonna strike out, he hits grounders, his park's bad. but damn boy hit ball hard
  17. robert's not even in AAA yet so i wouldn't worry about that for a thing like leury. even when robert comes up, leury's been doing well enough that i feel like it'd be hard for a team like the white sox to bench him. even with eloy and robert out there, the third OF spot would be between leury and... delmonico? ryan cordell? those guys are pretty fungible. leury's actually bringing something interesting to their lineup as the leadoff guy. and they've played him on the infield a couple times too, so there are options. he's not running as much as you might ideally hope but he's been an absolute runs scored monster so far. it's not even "he scores runs because he's a leadoff guy, nice WW find" level - as of this morning, only seven players have more runs than him on the season. and they're bellinger, dejong, baez, haniger, yelich, ozuna, and story. he's tied with merrifield and albies. right behind him are springer, arenado and freeman. that's pretty crazy company for a wire pickup, even if it's just the one category.
  18. o'neill being sent down is fine but fowler's been out of commission all week with the flu, i think we still gotta wait and see what happens when fowler's fully back online before we really know what the situation is now
  19. in particular, back in 2017 with the nationals he had a really great run, where for about a month he was one of the best fantasy producers out there when the nats played him full-time as an injury-fill in. but then he got hurt himself and that was the end of that, and he's never really gotten another shot until now. i held him all last year in my main league hoping he would, because i had that one glorious month stuck in my mind. so i think there's at least a chance this is at least sorta real lot of "at least"s and "maybe"s in that sentence of course but that's the life we've chosen
  20. i've been a big nate lowe fan since last year and i'm excited but for those of you going whole hog on the pickups in redraft right now - and i am one of you, don't get me wrong - definitely keep one eye on what's going to happen when meadows comes back. i don't think it's true that meadows is a non-factor here. the rays have four solid outfielders - pham, kiermaier, meadows, and avisail. when all are healthy that's pushing over into the DH time when nate was called up it was described as a response to the loss of the lefty bats of meadows and wendle. as such, it's possible the rays brass is thinking of this as a short-term patch. i definitely don't think they'll punt on choi, who's been doing fairly well despite the lack of HR power so far if nate rakes i certainly do think there's a chance he's up for good, as he can push avisail into the short side of a platoon if he's clearly a superior option. just... don't lose your minds if he gets sent back down
  21. yeah, plus consider that he took an 0-6 on sunday after being hit on the hand and going for X-rays / being listed as DTD on saturday night, not even being sure he'd play. i wouldn't read too much into anything just yet
  22. yeah, like offensive tackle sure, you can basically tape your entire hand into a ball and still go back out there. but like you say, hitting is another thing. the bone healing itself should take about a month, but the tendon involvement... it just depends on if it actually affects his swing, like his grip strength or anything like that by the time he gets back. encouraging is that it wasn't an injury FROM hitting, like a hamate. so maybe it won't affect him at all. we can really only guess at this point
  23. yeah i'm quietly placing a marker on this guy in my super deep league. i'd straight up never heard of him until you mentioned him a few pages ago, but he seems pretty interesting. had a 3K inning last night. stuff looks pretty good. minor league numbers look pretty good. Ks, not too many walks. did give up a lot of homers last year in AAA, but then didn't give up a single homer all year in 2017, so maybe it's not a chronic problem. and of course, the pen he's in looks pretty bad. so it all checks out
  24. from today's arizona papers https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/2019/04/01/arizona-diamondbacks-promote-top-prospect-jon-duplantier/3336669002/?cid=twitter_azcsports ron paul it's happening gif here
  25. what is even going on in seattle. i'm a huge bullpen nerd and i have no idea who some of these people are like, i'm the kind of person who's like, "ok, ian kennedy, this is what we're doing? really? ok sure" and picks him up on all my teams. it takes a pretty chaotic bullpen to get me to be "ok, i'm not dealing with this". but seattle has managed it