mjb03003

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mjb03003 last won the day on August 8 2018

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About mjb03003

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  1. I couldn't figure out how to pull in a quote from a different thread, but below is a post I made at the end of last season in the Gesicki 2019 thread. With no receiving weapons added in the draft, and Tua as the long-term QB1 in Miami, I think Gesicki is a clear upgrade for 2020 and moving forward. I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic and stick with that baseline projection of 60/675//7, but I think that is even more likely than it appeared last December, and he may surpass that with ease. mjb03003 Posted December 30, 2019 This guy has turned into quite a weapon. 6'6" and he can go up and get it. Like so many of the new breed of "TE," he looks like an oversized WR out there. Fitzpatrick has unlocked his potential, now we just hold our breath and see what happens to the Miami QB situation. Fitzpatrick played pretty well, but everyone knows he's not a long-term solution and he plays his best ball when the stakes are low and he can just sling it around. At the very least, Gesicki seems like a decent bet for a 60 reception, 675 yard, 7 TD season in 2020.
  2. Pedro Martinez David Ortiz Manny Ramirez Dustin Pedroia honorable mention: Mookie Betts
  3. Same here. Mahomes/Kyler duo looking pretty good for the next decade.
  4. I don't really know what you're referring to with the 3 more hits over 482 AB line. Maybe I missed a post somewhere. I don't think it's entirely quantifiable, how much better your stats will be based on how the ball comes off your bat, but since we're all in the business/hobby of projecting I don't see how it isn't relevant information that can help separate otherwise similar players.
  5. If I'm reading this correctly, Olson was the 10th most shifted against hitter in baseball last season. He was shifted against 87% of the time. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/batter-positioning?playerId=621566&teamId=&opponent=&firstBase=27&shift=1&season=2019&attempts=25&batSide=L&gb=1&fb=1 He seemed to handle it better than most if you look at his wOBA when shifted against.
  6. Show me where I said this. I said he *could* be a .270-275 hitter based on some of the improvements he displayed as a hitter in 2019. Specifically from June on (where he hit .276 over nearly 400 AB).
  7. I realize this. It's why batted ball data matters. If you consistently hit the ball hard, and/or hit line drives, and/or hit the ball on the barrel, and/or have a certain launch angle... you can start to predict a few more batted balls becoming hits vs. someone who does less of these things.
  8. No one said it's a given. Projection sites tend to be conservative. I've tried pretty hard to point out some of the things that many projections are seemingly not taking into consideration throughout this thread.
  9. Again, you're choosing to focus on just one of the many sample sizes being presented. .267 over a full season (127 games played, 483 AB). Is that also a small sample size? His ceiling is .260 because you say it is? He literally just hit .267. In your other posts you talk about how until something happens it's not a reality. It just happened. The .276 I have cited from June on is also a 395 AB sample size. Is that not relevant? Whatever you're expecting is fine. I'm here for the debate and discussion. I just think you are restricting what is in the realm of possibility based on inconsistent logic.
  10. this is rich coming from the guy who earlier in this thread kept repeating that Olson's career average is .254 and ignoring his .267 average last year (or his .276 from June on, or his .282 in the 2nd half). So with his batting average, the fact that he's done it (hit over .260) means nothing. But with his home run hitting, the fact that he hasn't done it (hit 40 homers) means EVERYTHING. BE. CONSISTENT.
  11. 2018 was his only previous full season in the majors. He had a cup of coffee in 2016, and in 2017 he hit 24 HR in just 59 games played. So far, in terms of power potential, 2018 is the outlier. from 2017-2019, in 348 career games, Olson has 89 homers. That's a per-162 game pace of 41.4 HRs. No, we don't bank on 162 games played for players anymore. But clearly he's demonstrated the power to pop 40 bombs in a healthy season. And all of the stats we have on Olson have come as a 23, 24, and 25 year old player. So he's not yet in his prime/peak years, and we really don't know whether he can make improvements to his game to 1) hit for higher average, 2) hit even more HRs. There are signs that he could do both (that you've seemed content to ignore throughout this thread). What can he do exceptionally other than hit homers? Well, he has 220 RBI in those same 348 games played since 2017. That's 102 RBI per 162 games played. He drove in 91 last year in just 127 games played. That's a pace of 116 over a full season. 102 RBI would have put him in the top 20 in RBI in all of baseball last season. 116 RBI would have put him top 10. And that was with Khris Davis having an abysmal season and Laureano missing a chunk of time (and many expect continued growth from him). The A's were 9th in runs scored last year. Olson projects to bat cleanup for them.
  12. Pretty happy with how my team grades out, even though we obviously have to take it with a massive grain of salt. I think my offense could be slightly better than these projections give it credit for, since i think I have a handful of major breakout candidates who could easily surpass their projections. Specifically I'm higher on Garver and Olson than most. I don't think Garver's season was a total fluke, and even if he comes back to earth a bit I could see him getting more ABs to help compensate for what he loses in efficiency. Olson I've spoken about enough already in this forum. Jump over to the Matt Olson thread for a recap if you haven't been following along. I think Vlad as a 5th round pick is amazing value. He didn't have the rookie year many were expecting but I think he will hit .300 with 30 HR and 100 RBI this year. Laureano and Robert as my top 2 OF was not by design but I think both could be 20/20 guys, which in this day and age is quite rare and valuable. On the pitching side I am glad to see my projections were strong because I felt throughout the mock that i was able to get premium arms with minor health concerns or innings restrictions at great bargains. Hyun-Jin Ryu in the 12th? Yes please. The move from NL to AL will hurt his ratios some but he's been basically a 2.00 ERA / 1.00 WHIP guy the past two seasons so he has plenty of room to regress and still be great. I don't mind if he *only* pitches 140 innings because it's a roto league with an innings limit. Julio Urias in the 14th - again, innings limit doesn't bother me. give me the potential for elite ratios/Ks for as many innings as he's able to give me and I'll figure out a replacement if/when it comes to that. McCullers in the 17th - I don't see any downside. Josh Hader in the 8th round seems like a win. Even if he loses the closer role, he's still very valuable in this format because of his crazy K/9. Finally, Shohei Ohtani in the 10th round, 112th overall... in a league where his hitting and pitching stats both count and that uses daily lineups? Seems like a steal to me. If he pitches 100 innings at roughly his 2018 levels, plus gets 300-350 ABs at his 2018/19 levels, he'd be a fantasy monster, no?
  13. I like those odds for sure. Olson absolutely smokes the ball. If he didn’t miss a month with a broken hand last year he probably hits 40+. If he gets a few more balls in the air he could make a run at 50 HR. This is assuming he carries over some of the gains/improvements he showed last year of course, but the sky is the limit in terms of his power potential.