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mjb03003 last won the day on August 8 2018

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About mjb03003

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  1. My point is just that the path to the final numbers is at least as important as what the final numbers are. We all want pitchers who never have a bad month (or two) but we should also want pitchers who can rattle off a 4 month stretch of borderline dominance in what is largely considered a down year.
  2. The numbers you post are all correct but what you're missing if you only look at the final line is that he was terrible in April and September and pitched like an ace for May, June, July, and August. May - August aggregate numbers: 143 IP, 162 Ks, 2.96 ERA, 1.12 WHIP I don't have the FIP and xFIP numbers by month but I'd bet anything those numbers are heavily skewed by an uncharacteristically poor stretch to start and finish the season. Given how much cheaper he will be in drafts this year (based largely on the mediocre final year numbers, overlooking how dominant he was for the bulk of the season) I think he's actually a very good target.
  3. First, you can't call it "non-existent" when he does actually have an existent role that contributes *some* fantasy points basically every week. He only had three games last year where he failed to record a catch. In every other game he's giving you at least a little something. But the bigger thing here, and what you can't just gloss over, is that Henry's volume of carries and his consistently high YPC mean that he gives you 80+ rushing yards almost every week. You said it yourself you need a solid 10 points as a floor and Henry gets you there most weeks on rushing yardage plus his minimal passing game role alone. And that's basically his floor WITHOUT factoring in TDs (more on that in a bit) or any additional usage in the passing game. So I'll say it again, I think it's erroneous to say you're "banking" on a TD or you're "screwed." Even with some TD regression I don't see how his rushing yardage doesn't keep him in the RB1 conversation. If you took away HALF of Henry's rushing TDs (giving him 8 instead of 16) and changed none of his other numbers he'd have put up 246 points in full PPR, which would have made him the RB10 on the season this year, RB9 (tie) in 2018, and RB8 in 2017. Having said all that... RBs with Henry's workload, size, and speed (able to punch it in on the goal line and/or take it to the house from anywhere) are going to score TDs. Since the Titans committed to feeding him the ball towards the end of 2018, Henry has averaged over 1 rushing TD per game. It's not totally unpredictable. It's fair to say Henry will score a TD more often than he will not. And he can also score multiple TDs any given Sunday, something he's done 9 times since the midway point of 2018. McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, Cook. and Kamara are all ranked, projected, and drafted (in early mocks) well ahead of Henry. If you have the option of getting one of them, by all means prioritize them over Henry. But once they are off the board I think you have a hard time arguing against Henry. He's a mid-to-late 1st rounder based on what we know now.
  4. I think it's erroneous to say he HAS to score a TD every week or you're "screwed." With his yardage and minimal passing game work alone he's hovering right around double digit points every week without TD(s). You won't take that, knowing that he could go for 200 yards and/or 2 TDs on any given Sunday?
  5. In redraft perhaps I'd fade him on the concerns that the volume won't be there week in and week out. In keeper/dynasty you have to trust the talent will rise above any concerns about the situation. I realize the Titans have completely taken the air out of the ball on this playoff run, letting Henry and their defense carry them to victory. But it's not like that was the blueprint for the entire regular season. Remember this is a team that started 2-4 and had to win 7 of their final 10 games to make the playoffs as a wild card. They didn't win every game by handing Henry the ball 30+ times and limiting Tannehill to 10-15 passing attempts. Once Tannehill took over as the QB (week 7) Brown had 80+ yards in 5 out of 10 games. He had 4 100+ yard games. In 10 games with Tannehill as the starter Brown totaled 40 catches, 778 yards, and 6 TDs, or 4/78/0.6 weekly. There were some low volume games in the mix, but there were also a few games the Titans won easily where Brown saw significant targets and FEASTED. He may be a bit of a boom/bust WR in year 2, but that's why he'll be a WR2/3 and not a WR1. If his rookie season is any indication, he will have plenty of WR1 weeks, so if you can build a strong, consistent team around him, AJ Brown can still be a key piece of a winning fantasy team. There are actually very few WR who don't alternate big games with quiet(er) ones.
  6. Yeah, I was under the impression he might have been slipping a bit, towards the back end of the 2nd round or even early 3rd. I've read a bunch of comments in message boards and on Twitter that drafting an elite TE this year did not provide enough of an edge to justify it, and there are those who point to Kelce's age and minor injuries piling up and they fear a drop off. I think he's still up there with just about any WR in terms of bankable floor with upside to absolutely go off on any given Sunday.
  7. Does the monster performance yesterday change anyone's opinion about Kelce going into next year? I try not to react too much to any single game performance, but for me it's a reminder that his 5 TDs in 2019 is really all that kept him from being the true difference maker that is worthy of a 2nd round pick. 97 catches for 1229 yards is WR1 stuff, but if he catches 8-10 TDs instead of 5 it vaults him into truly elite territory across the W/R/T landscape. I don't see any real signs of slowing down, so I think another 100/1250/10 type season is in the cards for 2020.
  8. Henry delivers the beatings, not the other way around.
  9. This became an argument when you started twisting my words to make the case that I was trying to rationalize why Gesicki would be a "stud TE." I started this whole thing with a projection that clearly doesn't place him in the "Stud TE" range. My "argument" was that he could have a 60/675/7 type season, which would be a modest step forward from the 51/575/5 season he just put up. I respect your position as to why he's not a good bet to put up those kind of numbers, due to the fact that you are projecting a decrease in targets and perhaps overall playing time for Gesicki.
  10. "A" focal point. Not "the" focal point. There's clearly a difference. Feed him targets =/= target hog. This one is semantics, so it's not really worth arguing, but I don't consider anyone you feed targets to a target hog. Feed = give. Most passing attacks feed targets to their TE if they have a good pass-catching TE. Seems like you assumed what I meant by that and ran with it, even though it doesn't line up with what I was saying in my other posts. What are your projections for Gesicki for 2020?
  11. Dude, you are doing anything you can to conflate my enthusiasm and projections with me thinking he will be a "stud TE," something I never said, and something the numbers I threw out there do not indicate. I suggested he could slightly improve his 2019 numbers and put up a line that would have him in the top 7/8 among all TEs for fantasy (PPR). There's a difference between projecting modest growth/improvement and saying someone will be a stud TE. What do you project Gesicki's final line will be in 2020? I'm genuinely curious. I am assuming you think he has no chance to even repeat his numbers? My "process" focuses on his athleticism, the scouting reports on him coming out of college, what he's already put on tape, his draft capital, and the fact that in year 2 he was already a top 12 TE. I've agreed with you that there was not a ton of competition for targets in the Miami offense this year. The situation around him did help him emerge and put up the numbers he put up. I'm not arguing that. I don't know what your threshold is for a solid game in fantasy, but had touchdowns in four different games and cleared 50 yards in a couple others, including a 6/95 game. By my count he had at least 5 strong fantasy performances (for a TE) and arguably a couple other "solid" performances. And Gesicki is a seam-stretching TE who makes chunk plays downfield. That seems to be a good match for Fitzpatrick's tendencies. Even if he's not on the field all the time, it seems like there will be clear-cut passing situations where Gesicki would be deployed and would be a mismatch for LBs and Safeties in coverage. Where did I predict he would be a "target hog?" Seriously? You're just making stuff up now. We'll see what happens with Gailey. I've admitted that there could be some major changes to the personnel and scheme in Miami next year. It would still surprise me if Gesicki was not a viable fantasy TE with a good shot at a 60/675/7 type season. And yes, most TEs are somewhat TD dependent, and I'm okay with that.
  12. I didn't compare Gesicki to Jimmy Graham. Read the post(s). I started this by saying I thought Gesicki could have a 60/675/7 type season in 2020, numbers that would require an increase of 9 receptions, 105 yards, and 2 TDs over this year. A 60/675/7 season would have made him the TE 7/8 this year. I'm not exactly predicting a Travis Kelce/George Kittle type season here. You felt it necessary to point out that Gesicki would never be a stud fantasy TE because he can't/doesn't block. I used Graham as an example to invalidate your claim that all stud fantasy TEs can block. Gesicki does not have to be on Jimmy Graham's level physically or play for the same coach/offense to put up the type of numbers I said he might be capable of, whether he can block or not. Another example of a "TE" who doesn't block is Evan Engram, who when healthy has been a consistent top 5 player at TE. Some of these new age TE are functionally big WRs who can create mismatches against LBs and Safeties who either can't keep up with their speed or can't handle their size/athleticism. Gesicki has already proven he can be a weapon in the passing game without being on the field for every snap and without being a great blocking TE (which he still has time to improve, since he's young and TE is a position with notoriously slow development). As noted above he's already put up a TE1 season in PPR as a 23/24 year old 2nd year player in a bad offense. You have correctly pointed out that there was not a lot of competition for targets in Miami this season, but he coexisted very nicely alongside DeVante Parker, who finished as a top 12 WR in fantasy. Until we see the Dolphins bring in significant upgrades to their passing attack, I don't know why we would assume Gesicki's role will be diminished as a 24 year old 3rd year player coming off a mini-breakout year. We'll have to see what Miami does this offseason. I just read that they fired the OC, Chad O'Shea, so more scheme changes could be coming for sure. I'm just not ready to make the jump that the Miami front office/coaching staff will review the season and think Gesicki is a guy they want to stop utilizing as an athletic, seam-stretching, red-zone weapon. He doesn't need to play every down or be a great blocker to be very viable for fantasy.
  13. TEs typically do very little their first year or two in the league, so Gesicki being the #12 TE in PPR on the season, #10 from week 5 on, #8 from week 10 on, and #6 from week 12 on is notable to me. I brought up his draft capital not to say that the Dolphins are going to be committed to featuring him no matter what, but rather to show that he was a big time prospect and came into the league with pretty high expectations (which he's started to meet). The fact that the Dolphins sold off a bunch of OTHER young players who they invested high draft capital in doesn't tell me that they think nothing of Gesicki. It could mean that they simply couldn't get as large of a return for Gesicki (compared to Fitzpatrick and Tunsil) so it wasn't worth selling him for picks, and/or that they like him and feel good about his future with the team. Until/unless there are major changes to the offensive system and coaching philosophy, why should we compare Gesicki's situation to OJ Howard's? Gesicki figures to see continuity in the coaching staff, with Flores and O'Shea seemingly safe for at least another year, unlike Howard who had to deal with a new head coach with a new scheme/philosophy. The Dolphins will certainly add some bodies to the backfield and WR corps, but I expect Gesicki will maintain a sizable role. Howard is a good cautionary tale of how athleticism and pass catching ability can be squandered/stifled in the wrong system, but I don't see the direct connection to Gesicki/Miami. I don't agree that situation usually trumps talent in the NFL. It happens that way sometimes. Sometimes it's the other way around. Some teams find ways to tailor their scheme/system around their good players. Some teams waste talented players because they can't figure out how to use them and they refuse to trade them to someone who will.
  14. I think it's relevant from the standpoint of he is not someone who came out of nowhere and had a few good weeks. He's 6'6" and runs a 4.5 forty. He's the kind of guy you feed targets to. Jimmy Graham could never block. He had some pretty good years. There are multiple exceptions to the rule that fantasy studs can all block.
  15. I'm always interested in hearing people who have differing opinions, especially on players who have limited track records. I often fall into the trap of extrapolating 2nd half numbers and expecting too big of a "breakout" the following year. I understand what you're saying here about just how much had to break in his favor in order for him to emerge. Still, I think it's worth pointing out that he was a high 2nd round pick in 2018 and it's pretty well accepted at this point that Gase either didn't know how to use him or had no interest in using him. It might be a situation of not altering the scheme to fit the player(s), but there are plenty of "TE" in the league right now who primarily run routes and are rarely asked to block. I'd be surprised if Miami decides not to make Gesicki a focal point of the offense moving forward, along with Parker and Williams (if healthy).