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Everything posted by Sine_cera

  1. Are some of them really top prospects though? Hilliard is 26 and was never a guy listed in any of the Top 100 lists. McDaniel and Longenhagen have him at a 45 FV and view him more as a role player/platoon player. I see Rodgers as a top prospect.
  2. I’m mostly impressed by the 4 K in 27 AB. This guy is usually Babe Ruth in spring training but not striking out so much anymore would be nice.
  3. The main reason his ADP is what it is isn’t just the power. It’s because 1B isn’t a deep position. If Olson was a DH or OF, his ADP would be lower. What is more relevant than his production compared to other power hitters is his production compared to other 1B. Some have brought up the argument to avoid that entire group of Olson/Goldy/Rizzo/Abreu and wait for Hoskins or Sano. It’s a risky strategy because if you miss out on those guys, you will end up with a Voit, E5 or Walker as your 1B.
  4. Twins hitters. Second in the Majors in Runs, first in HR, second in OPS, third in wRC+ last season and then they added Donaldson to their lineup. Yet their highest ranked hitter in ADP is Cruz (85) and he’s really underrated. Even with possible regression I want me some shares of Cruz, Rosario (92 ADP), Donaldson (96), Sano (118), Kepler (141), Buxton (158) and Polanco (157) at those ADPs.
  5. I’ll gladly take him at his ADP. He may lack upside but he’ll hit for decent average, 15 HR and he’ll have his usual 60/70 RBI. That’s all I need from my catcher position.
  6. All my IL spots might be taken by the first week of April with so many guys getting hurt already....
  7. I have no idea how legit this guy is but 4-6 weeks would be pretty significant.
  8. He was diagnosed with the calf strain on February 26th. Since the 27th his ADP in NFBC is 81.
  9. His projections and ADP are the main reason he won’t be on any of my teams. There’s a bunch of hitters going around that same 140/150 ADP that I prefer over him (C.Santana, Franmil, Dahl, Lux, C.Seager, J.Polanco, Gurriel Jr, Buxton, Sal Perez).
  10. Wrong. That honestly depends on league settings. Hoskins was the #42 overall player in one of my leagues two seasons ago and he had a .246 AVG. E5 was the #78 overall player that year and he also batted .246. Even Gallo was a Top 100 player that year and he batted .206 and so was Olson and his .247 AVG. You can have plenty of Fantasy value despite a low average as long as your other counting stats are there (HR, RBI, R).
  11. Steamer, THE BAT and ATC have him hitting only .225/.230. They’re buying the power but none of the projection systems seem to think he can hit for AVG. Last season his AVG was .253 but his xBA was only .225.
  12. What a shame. He was one of my favorite 1B targets.
  13. He often doesn't go for youth and upside in the early rounds (rounds 1 to 5). He wants a safe floor from someone with a longer track record. It's a strategy that you see more Fantasy writers use. They disagree with the "you can't lose a draft in the early rounds" argument. They don't mind taking them in later rounds though.
  14. I see only 5, maybe 6, players who will go after Olson in a draft. So even though there are more players projected to hit 34+ HR, most of them are going early. It's harder to find them after Round 5. And some of those late guys are guys most people will be targeting (Reyes, Moose). Also, the Judge and `Stanton injuries will impact the drafting of certain power hitters.
  15. I was out on Hoskins in previous years because of his ADP but this year will be the year I get me some shares. I like the risk/reward at that ADP.
  16. Every Fantasy player needs to trust their own judgement and/or their own projections. Two weeks ago Todd Zola took Starling Marte at the end of the 1st round in a TGFBI league and he received a fair share of criticism for it. His argument was that according to his own projections, Marte was worth a 1st round pick so why wait until the 2nd to get him? This is a guy who has won Tout Wars, LABR and TGFBI so not a Fantasy idiot. So if someone believes that Olson will put up 3rd round production then go get him in that round. Fantasy would be boring if we all took the same players in the same rounds lol.
  17. Looks like lots of pitchers are throwing harder so far this spring. I read somewhere that even Julio Teheran was throwing 93....
  18. Last year Devers put up 1st round production so drafting him at the end of the 2nd round isn’t exactly buying high. Maybe he has hit his ceiling but he doesn’t have to put up last year’s numbers to live up to his #24 draft pick. There is room for some regression and still put up late 2nd round value. He’ll miss Betts hitting leadoff but he’ll still have Bogaerts and Martinez hitting behind him. Boston’s pitching might really struggle this season but their lineup will score runs. His ADP in NFBC after the Betts trade is 22, with 33 being the lowest pick. Which hitter going in the 3rd round would you take over him at the end of the 2nd? All of them have their flaws or lack of track record. The only hitter I would consider taking over him is Starling. I guess you can take a SP but that also depends on who you picked in the 1st.
  19. Will it be worth it though if he doesn’t hit leadoff? Because right now it looks like he’ll be hitting near the bottom of their lineup which will hurt his counting stats and AB. Sure, you’ll be getting steals and he’ll hit for AVG but the Runs and RBI will be limited. So unless you buy into his sudden power, you’ll be stuck with a two-category player. And it’s not like he’s dominant in a certain category and will give you 40/50 SB. I’m not sure I would want to reach for someone like that when he already has a 133 ADP.
  20. It also depends on your league settings. You described his 2018 season as “a full season of pretty crappiness” yet in one of my leagues (14-team league) he was still the #55 ranked hitter, #92 player overall and the #8 1B that year. Rhys Hoskins was the #33 ranked hitter/#45 ranked overall/#4 ranked 1B in that specific league and he hit .246, 34 HR, 96 RBI and 89 R. All projections have Olson putting up better numbers than Hoskins in 2018 so taking Olson in the 3rd round this year wouldn’t necessarily be reaching. I’m not going to take him in the 3rd but based on projections, I wouldn’t fault another player for taking him in the 3rd in that league.
  21. I checked the TGFBI site to see what Olson’s ADP was. TGFBI has 26 Fantasy writers/experts/high stakes players leagues and in 22 of those leagues, Olson was drafted at the end of the 4th or beginning of the 5th round. In the other 4 he was a 3rd round pick. TGFBI are 15-team leagues. So in those 22 leagues his ADP was around 60. I have no issues drafting him at that ADP. Also, in their leagues the run on 1B really started around the 5th and 6th round. Olson, Rizzo, Goldy, Abreu, Bell, Muncy, LeMahieu (he’s 1B eligible) all went quickly. Then it took several rounds before guys like Mancini, Hoskins and C.Santana went off the board.