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Travis Burten

Steven Strasburg SP WAS

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I feel like a lot of the hits off of this guy would not be hits in wood bat leagues. i see some of these guys hit balls off their thumbs that would absolutely shatter bats

just something to take into consideration when he enters the minors

The wood bat effect will no doubt be offset by the level of competition effect. He did give up a couple of cheap hits tonight, but got a few Ks on pitches a good AA hitter would probably at least foul off.

That said, the control he had over his curve and slider were extremely impressive given how sharply they break. He was able to throw them for strikes on the edge when he wanted to, and put them just above the dirt when he wanted to.

He didn't feature the massive heat, most his FBs were 93-95. He located his change pretty well also.

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Its getting close. I hope the Nats have their checkbook ready.

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I admit that I lack knowledge when it comes to the MLB contracts, but I was under the impression that rookies must play several years for very little money until they become arbitration eligible and eventually free agents. Outstanding players like Lince and Pap come to mind right away. I think they are getting paid about $500k this year. Now I know that some players like Reyes, Wright, Longoria avoided that and signed for multiple years before they reached arbitration/free agency. However, they spent a few years in the minors/majors to prove themselves, and I don't recall their contrats being in the range of $50 million. Which brings me to the asking price of this possible phenom. Is there a precedent for such a huge contract right off the draft? If the Nats draft him, do they absolutely have to pay him that much?

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Lincecum was the #9 draft pick. Papelbon was even lower. They weren't considered elite pitchers.

Strasburg is considered the best draft prospect in decades. Better even than Mark Prior or Ben McDonald at the time.

The only leverage Strasburgh has is just not signing and then going back into the draft next year. So if Washington says, "hey, we're going to only offer you a $500k contract, take it or leave it." He'll say "FU, Washington" stay out a year, and then go back into the draft when someone else (though it would likely be Washington again) has the #1 pick next year.

When Andrew Miller signed when he was the #1 pick, he got something like a $3.5 million bonus, and a $5.5 million guaranteed contract. David Price got over $12 million guaranteed when he was the #1 pick.

Strasburgh is significantly better than Price was at the time.

It's in Strasburgh's best interest to get paid now, but even if he doesn't, there are banks/insurance companies that will loan him money using his future earnings as collateral (Lebron did that), so he will still get paid regardless.

It's in Washington's best interest to sign him and show a committment that they are investing in their team - but if they don't sign him, they'll just get another shot at him next year.

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Scott Boras is his agent.

To expand on this.

I believe (not 100% sure on this) that all contracts signed out of the draft are for 6 years. Which usually you work out a signing bonus as well as an actual contract. Most players just sign for the league minimum unless they have not only a ton of promise but a good agent (Scott Boras). i.e Porcello and Strasburg.

Now arbitration is a process implemented by the MLBPA (Major League Baseball Players Association aka the baseball players union). Every player is gaurenteed to get arbitration once they have 3 years of service in the major leagues. What arbitration is, is a bargining between player/agent with the team (owner and/or GM). They try to get the current player under arbitration a salary that is similar to veterans in the league with the same position and similar stats. If they cannot come to an agreement it goes before the arbitration committe. This gaurentees a player will get paid "market value" or what they are worth in perspective to other players in the league. Super Twos can get arbitration after 2 years of service but that is a whole other matter which is slightly more complicated.

Strasburg being hyped as this once in a life time talent has a ton of leverage. Especially with having a cut throat crafty veteran agent such a Scott Boras (not a huge fan of the guy myself but he gets his players the $$). So he is said to be asking for a big league deal right out of the draft. Which he will refuse to sign if he doesn't get the deal he wants. Teams will probably know this before they draft him. Porcello was a similar situation but on a much smaller scale which is why he fell to the Tigers at 23 (instead of going top 5).

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Agree, but aren't the Nats taking a huge financial risk if they give this kid $50 million? We're not talking chump change here. And this is not the NFL, where they just cut the guy if he's not performing and not be on the hook for the whole contract. How much money did Wieters get when he signed for the Orioles? I think his hype is as big as Starsburg's yet I don't recall him getting paid anywhere close to $50 million.

Scott Boras is a skilled agent, but the Arod fiasco almost blew up in his face. I believe the Yanks would have gotten him for a lot less, but this is topic for another discussion. My point is that even if his agent is Boras, is he worth $50 mill? Let's say the Nats don't sign him this year, what would make a team GM give him $50 mill next year?

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Agree, but aren't the Nats taking a huge financial risk if they give this kid $50 million? We're not talking chump change here. And this is not the NFL, where they just cut the guy if he's not performing and not be on the hook for the whole contract. How much money did Wieters get when he signed for the Orioles? I think his hype is as big as Starsburg's yet I don't recall him getting paid anywhere close to $50 million.

Scott Boras is a skilled agent, but the Arod fiasco almost blew up in his face. I believe the Yanks would have gotten him for a lot less, but this is topic for another discussion. My point is that even if his agent is Boras, is he worth $50 mill? Let's say the Nats don't sign him this year, what would make a team GM give him $50 mill next year?

The press is saying $50 million because Boras is saying $50 million. That doesn't mean it's going to happen.

Boras also said that Dice-K would sign $100 million contract (excluding the posting fee) up to the last day of the deadline, which was about 100% higher than he actually signed for.

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To expand on this.

I believe (not 100% sure on this) that all contracts signed out of the draft are for 6 years. Which usually you work out a signing bonus as well as an actual contract. Most players just sign for the league minimum unless they have not only a ton of promise but a good agent (Scott Boras). i.e Porcello and Strasburg.

Now arbitration is a process implemented by the MLBPA (Major League Baseball Players Association aka the baseball players union). Every player is gaurenteed to get arbitration once they have 3 years of service in the major leagues. What arbitration is, is a bargining between player/agent with the team (owner and/or GM). They try to get the current player under arbitration a salary that is similar to veterans in the league with the same position and similar stats. If they cannot come to an agreement it goes before the arbitration committe. This gaurentees a player will get paid "market value" or what they are worth in perspective to other players in the league. Super Twos can get arbitration after 2 years of service but that is a whole other matter which is slightly more complicated.

Strasburg being hyped as this once in a life time talent has a ton of leverage. Especially with having a cut throat crafty veteran agent such a Scott Boras (not a huge fan of the guy myself but he gets his players the $). So he is said to be asking for a big league deal right out of the draft. Which he will refuse to sign if he doesn't get the deal he wants. Teams will probably know this before they draft him. Porcello was a similar situation but on a much smaller scale which is why he fell to the Tigers at 23 (instead of going top 5).

Let's say he gets the 50 mil over 6 years, will he still be eligible for arbitration when he reaches 2-3 years of service, or would it be considered a 6 year 50 mil major league deal?

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Another big factor in the negotiations will be a guaranteed spot at the MLB level relatively early in his career. Everyone has seen the financial stall tactics with Weiters being down the first 2 months of this year, Price being in the minors until recently, and the Jays sending Snider back down to stop his clock for awhile. Boras could insist that Strasburg be on the MLB roster sooner as a consdition of the signing to accelerate his arbitration and free agency clock. 

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I admit that I lack knowledge when it comes to the MLB contracts, but I was under the impression that rookies must play several years for very little money until they become arbitration eligible and eventually free agents. Outstanding players like Lince and Pap come to mind right away. I think they are getting paid about $500k this year. Now I know that some players like Reyes, Wright, Longoria avoided that and signed for multiple years before they reached arbitration/free agency. However, they spent a few years in the minors/majors to prove themselves, and I don't recall their contrats being in the range of $50 million. Which brings me to the asking price of this possible phenom. Is there a precedent for such a huge contract right off the draft? If the Nats draft him, do they absolutely have to pay him that much?
Since the record a draftee is just over 12M with Mark Prior, talk about 40-50M is unrealistic. As the MLB team that drafts Strasbourg would receive the #2 overall pick back for 2011 if a deal doesn't get done by Aug. 15, and Strasbourg would have to sit out an entire year, the MLB club holds *all* the cards here. Now, they would be foolish to let him go, but the point is, the player loses bigtime as well, and there is no one but the one MLB club that can sign him. So, given that, while it will be a record deal, I can't really see anything beyond 15-18M (which would still be HUGE, given that the normal #1 draftee has gone for 10M or less).

This is much like when the Red Sox won the rights to DiceK, and as negotiations were supposedly at a deadlock after many meetings, the Sox literally told Boras they were leaving the next AM and going back to Boston and hold a press conference declaring they had signed him (or they hadn't, and were moving on), and Dice-K and he could be at the airport, willing to sign their best offer, or wait it out for another season . He was there, bright and early.

The Nats will do the same here - they even did it with Aaron Crow last year, and took this year's #10 pick as a result of walking away. No doubt they will do the same here (And FWIW, the decision to let Crow go was foolish, because it was only over 500K between the final offers, or even less - that's not worth losing a year's worth of development time).

Given that's it's Boras, he'll push it right to the Aug. 15 deadline to get maximum contract value - and given the fiasco with Pedro Alvarez last year (the contract got signed after the deadline, and the club got penalized and the contract voided), both Boras & the club will come to an agreeement in the last week.

While Strasbourg is an elite talent, this scenario has played out exactly the same the last 2 years with the Aug. 15 deadline in place (there wasn't a hard deadline set before then). I can't really see it playing it out any differently, except that eventually a record, 15-18M deal gets done, as the Nats & Boras both realize they'll lose out big-time if a deal can't be done, and there are no other options (unlike FA, where Boras can try & create a market of bidders - he can't do that here).

It's covered earlier in this thread (discussion May 6th, page 9 with post above & other replies), but the record for MILB contracts is 12M for Mark Prior. To repeat what was said earlier, Boras can posture all he wants, but the bottom line is that the MLB club holds all the cards.

I'm sticking to the prediction of a record-breaking contract, over 15M, and yes, Strasburg would be min-wage for his first 3 years of MLB service time, then arbitration eligible (unless he gets the Super-2 status after 2 years).

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Any man that can get Zito $126 million is not to be questioned.

He is the Devil. Do not look him in the eye or question his methods, you will turn to stone or burn up in flames.

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Any man that can get Zito $126 million is not to be questioned.

He is the Devil. Do not look him in the eye or question his methods, you will turn to stone or burn up in flames.

I heard his brother is Karl Rove so yea that is about right.

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Agree, but aren't the Nats taking a huge financial risk if they give this kid $50 million? We're not talking chump change here. And this is not the NFL, where they just cut the guy if he's not performing and not be on the hook for the whole contract. How much money did Wieters get when he signed for the Orioles? I think his hype is as big as Starsburg's yet I don't recall him getting paid anywhere close to $50 million.

Scott Boras is a skilled agent, but the Arod fiasco almost blew up in his face. I believe the Yanks would have gotten him for a lot less, but this is topic for another discussion. My point is that even if his agent is Boras, is he worth $50 mill? Let's say the Nats don't sign him this year, what would make a team GM give him $50 mill next year?

There is no way this kid gets a 50 million dollar contract out of the draft. If any team did that they would ruin baseball. You can't let Scott Boras get everything he wants.

Don't think that Boras / Strasburg want Strasburg to go back to college. That's a huge risk for them. With the economy sliding further down who is to say that they will get better money next year? As well as, what if he gets injured? Teams need to realize this as well. He is the undisputed first overall pick, it doesn't get any better than that. Yes he is MLB ready so sure I can see him getting an MLB contract. But $50 mil is WAY too much. That is just the hype.

Porcello got 7.28 million for 4 years with 2011 and 2012 club options along with a (I believe to be a record breaking?) signing bonus of 3.58 million. He will most likely end up qualifying as a "Super Two" next year and probably get arbitration in the offseason before the 2011 season anyway. Which is another reason why Boras shouldn't risk asking for too much. Because Strasburg if he is successfull would be up for arbitration in 2 years anyway.

So yes I'd expect Strasburg's contract to be substaintally bigger than Porcello's contract but it won't be close to 50 million. If it is I will extremely surprised.

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can anyone tell me when the offical draft is? when he will be taken at 1 ? thanks

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The Draft starts on June 9th.

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Boras asking for 50 million what a joke, I could see him getting 15 mil if he wants to get a contract this year. It wouldnt be very smart for him to demand more. The sooner he signs and pitches in the bigs the sooner he can get a big deal.

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Boras asking for 50 million what a joke, I could see him getting 15 mil if he wants to get a contract this year. It wouldnt be very smart for him to demand more. The sooner he signs and pitches in the bigs the sooner he can get a big deal.

Price got 12 million. Strasburg is absolutely getting more than 15. I'd say probably in the 25-30 range.

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Lincecum was the #9 draft pick. Papelbon was even lower. They weren't considered elite pitchers.

Strasburg is considered the best draft prospect in decades. Better even than Mark Prior or Ben McDonald at the time.

The only leverage Strasburgh has is just not signing and then going back into the draft next year. So if Washington says, "hey, we're going to only offer you a $500k contract, take it or leave it." He'll say "FU, Washington" stay out a year, and then go back into the draft when someone else (though it would likely be Washington again) has the #1 pick next year.

When Andrew Miller signed when he was the #1 pick, he got something like a $3.5 million bonus, and a $5.5 million guaranteed contract. David Price got over $12 million guaranteed when he was the #1 pick.

Strasburgh is significantly better than Price was at the time.

It's in Strasburgh's best interest to get paid now, but even if he doesn't, there are banks/insurance companies that will loan him money using his future earnings as collateral (Lebron did that), so he will still get paid regardless.

It's in Washington's best interest to sign him and show a committment that they are investing in their team - but if they don't sign him, they'll just get another shot at him next year.

Technically he would have to sign a waiver for the Nats to draft him again the next year. Much like the Nats are attempting to get Crow to sign the waiver this year so there is more leverage for Strasburg that the bold indicates. I don't think for 1 minute though that the Nats won't get a deal done with him.

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can anyone tell me when the offical draft is? when he will be taken at 1 ? thanks

Day 1 of the draft has been moved to prime time this year. The first three rounds I believe will be televised on the MLB network.

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Day 1 of the draft has been moved to prime time this year. The first three rounds I believe will be televised on the MLB network.

what time does coverage start?

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