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Travis Burten

Steven Strasburg SP WAS

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Four years is a very, very conservative timetable to Strasburg. I mean look at guys like Price or Wieters, who were drafted only two years ago. Heck, Beckham was drafted less than a year ago and is already in the majors. And none of those guys is considered the player Strasburg is. Doesn't mean he'll live up to the hype, but he can make an impact pretty quick in theory.

He should get a shot this September baring no injuries or major set backs. If he gets his 20 million, he better pitch in September. Porcello is the same age and he's in the majors already. The best college pitchers usually end up pitching in the bigs the year after they were drafted. See Lincecum and Price.

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He should get a shot this September baring no injuries or major set backs. If he gets his 20 million, he better pitch in September. Porcello is the same age and he's in the majors already. The best college pitchers usually end up pitching in the bigs the year after they were drafted. See Lincecum and Price.

I'm going to guess 17.25 million over 3 years (signing bonus included).

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I'm going to guess 17.25 million over 3 years (signing bonus included).

Just a quick clarification - every single deal given to Prior/Price/etc. that's been for big bucks has basically been for the signing bonus and the right to control the players' salaries for the first 6 years (first 3 at minimum wage if the MLB club decides, and then arbitration - unless the now-famous Super-2 clause kicks in). The extra carrot thrown in is that a MLB contract is signed - which is likely moot in Strasburg's case, since it's clear that he shouldn't use up 4 years of options (the right to send a guy down to minors after calling him up without sending him through waivers).

So, I don't think you're going to see terms of a deal for a set # of years - essentially, a team gets a player for 6 years of service time. Almost all of the money spent is upfront money, with a little deferred in some cases. When we are talking 15M-20M (the number most people are talking), you have to add the min. wage for 2-3 seasons, and then the arbitration years. And before people ask why the Nats don't sign Strasburg to a 6-year deal, the answer is simple - they don't have to assume all the risk in paying him millions yet, so it makes a ton of sense to hold off and just get him signed to the 15M - 20M deal now, pay him 500K for 3 years and then worry about the arbitration years later.

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I'm going to guess 17.25 million over 3 years (signing bonus included).

That's very reasonable. I'd love to see the Nats and Mike Rizzo have some cojones and give him the $50 mil -- but demand an 8 or 9 year contract.

That's an absurd amount of guaranteed money, but could make sense if you buy out 2-3 Free Agency years, plus all arbitration years, and a lock-in price today.

(yes, I know it ain't gonna happen)

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so no surprise that he got drafted by the Nationals, do you think he'll be used right away? I've got the number 1 waiver spot and right now it's on Tommy Hanson I'm just curious if I should hold out for Strasburg. The waiver clears tomorrow.

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so no surprise that he got drafted by the Nationals, do you think he'll be used right away? I've got the number 1 waiver spot and right now it's on Tommy Hanson I'm just curious if I should hold out for Strasburg. The waiver clears tomorrow.

Strasburg will have little to no value this year. Hanson for this year. Strasburg for any length of time after this year.

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so no surprise that he got drafted by the Nationals, do you think he'll be used right away? I've got the number 1 waiver spot and right now it's on Tommy Hanson I'm just curious if I should hold out for Strasburg. The waiver clears tomorrow.

Hanson, Hanson, Hanson, Hanson, Hanson.

Stras has already thrown 120 innings this year -- how many more do you think the Nats want him to throw? You will get 100-120 IP this year out of Hanson, and fewer than 50, if any, out of Stras.

In a non-keeper, Hanson is the no-brainer. Even in a Keeper, I would probably take Hanson today because of the signing uncertainty of Stras -- and the fact that Hanson is a stud prospect in his own right.

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Hanson, Hanson, Hanson, Hanson, Hanson.

Stras has already thrown 120 innings this year -- how many more do you think the Nats want him to throw? You will get 100-120 IP this year out of Hanson, and fewer than 50, if any, out of Stras.

In a non-keeper, Hanson is the no-brainer. Even in a Keeper, I would probably take Hanson today because of the signing uncertainty of Stras -- and the fact that Hanson is a stud prospect in his own right.

I agree.

Redraft 100% Hanson.

Keeper/Dynasty I'd still lean towards Hanson.

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whos this strausberger guy? is he any good???

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whos this strausberger guy? is he any good???

Nah ... he's nothin' special. B)

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I'm going to guess 17.25 million over 3 years (signing bonus included).

I hate to say it, Boras is going to get what he wants with this kid.

The Nats need him more than he needs the Nats. If nothing satisfying hits the table he go back to college I think. Meanwhile, the Nats attendace is a wasteland and they need to sell tickets.

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I hate to say it, Boras is going to get what he wants with this kid.

The Nats need him more than he needs the Nats. If nothing satisfying hits the table he go back to college I think. Meanwhile, the Nats attendace is a wasteland and they need to sell tickets.

Ahh... I think he'll sign at a resonable record offer and still pitch this year. Ultimately it's going to come down to him wanting to take the guarantee and get this circus over with asap. I don't know how a kid can pass up that kind of money with all of the unknowns of not signing. He'll get it done and he'll make 5-10 appearances this season to give fans in DC something to to hope for.

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All I care about is when he'll be added to the player pool in my fantasy league. B)

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Tim Legler (sp) at ESPN thinks he won't be signed and he'll enter the draft next year. He's not as mlb ready as everyone thinks he is. In a game where he had 15 strikeouts with 120 pitches and 80 strikes, 40 of those strikes were pitches out of the zone that professional hitters would take. He's going to have to learn how to pitch in the zone more. I don't believe the Nationals can let him go, but that's an interesting take none the less.

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Tim Legler (sp) at ESPN thinks he won't be signed and he'll enter the draft next year. He's not as mlb ready as everyone thinks he is. In a game where he had 15 strikeouts with 120 pitches and 80 strikes, 40 of those strikes were pitches out of the zone that professional hitters would take. He's going to have to learn how to pitch in the zone more. I don't believe the Nationals can let him go, but that's an interesting take none the less.

That's assuming he would have thrown them there to major leaguers. If you can get lesser hitters to swing at bad pitches, there's no reason to throw them in the zone.

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Tim Legler (sp) at ESPN thinks he won't be signed and he'll enter the draft next year. He's not as mlb ready as everyone thinks he is. In a game where he had 15 strikeouts with 120 pitches and 80 strikes, 40 of those strikes were pitches out of the zone that professional hitters would take. He's going to have to learn how to pitch in the zone more. I don't believe the Nationals can let him go, but that's an interesting take none the less.

You gotta love the game being played here. I mean, 1 day after he's drafted, people are saying the Nats aren't going to sign him? If anything, to me this signals the PR war is beginning.

Favoring Strasburg/Boras' side:

-The Nats really need a face to their franchise, and Strasburg immediately becomes that face (Ryan Zimm should be there too, but he hasn't captured the media's attention like Strasburg has). Plus, y'know, he actually has decent stuff. B)

-Because they whiffed on Aaron Crow last year, they could look inept if they couldn't sign their #1 here, especially when he's so head & shoulders above everyone else (although they can address this, see below).

Favoring the Nats' side:

-While Strasburg could always simply go back to college, the fact is he has nothing left to prove there. All he does by going back is risk injury - and that's a risk a lot of players don't want to take.

-If he holds out, the team that drafts him next season will know he has no other choices if he holds out but sign. He loses the college re-entry angle, and while he could pitch in the Independent leagues, then he risks holding out on the big paycheque for 2 years.

-The Nats can come out and say, "we are offering a 15M (whatever) deal, the LARGEST in history to Strasburg", come out an be public around Aug. 12-13. It shows the fanbase they're going out of their way to take a chance and be HISTORIC in the $ they are willing to risk on a pitcher with great talent, but who still hasn't played in pro ball. Then, if Boras/Strasburg decline, they can turn to their fanbase and say "we tried, we made an offer that was UNPRECEDENTED" - and then the bad PR goes all the way back to Boras & Strasburg.

I thought the Nats blew it last year with Crow, simply because they were only 500K apart - that's ridiculously small. But if they play their cards right here, they can repeat what the Sox did with Dice-K & Boras. In a lot of ways, it's exactly the same situation - only the Sox could sign Dice-K, and they so they set a deadline. Theo & co. told Boras & Dice-K - "here's our final offer, no one else can bid, you decide if you want to be in a Sox uniform next season - we're leaving on tomorrow's flight, if you're there to sign, meet us there". The Nats don't need to pull the same theatrics, but the same tactics apply.

It's going to get real interesting to watch. I'm still sticking with the prediction of a record amount (say 15M-18M) with a MLB contract (which means he goes on the 40-man roster, and ensures he's up within 4 years - but he'll obviously be up much sooner, a few other perks are there). And, of course, being a Boras client, they go year-to-year with arbitration. Given the fiasco with the MILB signings after the deadline last year, I'm sure this gets resolved early in Aug. 15 or even a few days ahead of time - but given the posturing, can't really see an early resolution.

P.S. Ben Edelman's suggestion is a great move, and would be the one scenario where 50M would be justified (since you buy all the arbitration and couple of FA years) - but as he mentioned, it will never happen with a Boras client, since giving up FA years is not his MO.

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ESPN leaguemates... Eric Karabel just wrote the following in his chat transcript

Stephen Strasburg (DC?)

Ok let's end the drama here about me. When is ESPN going to add my name to their fantasy baseball waivers?

<H6 class=sn>Eric Karabell</H6>No drama, as far as I know. He has to pitch first, that's all. See ya in 2010.

Looks like we might not see him show up on the waivers this season contrary to what previous posters have said. Very unfortunate for those of us holding out hope with #1 waiver priorities.

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ESPN leaguemates... Eric Karabel just wrote the following in his chat transcript

Stephen Strasburg (DC?)

Ok let's end the drama here about me. When is ESPN going to add my name to their fantasy baseball waivers?

<H6 class=sn>Eric Karabell</H6>No drama, as far as I know. He has to pitch first, that's all. See ya in 2010.

Looks like we might not see him show up on the waivers this season contrary to what previous posters have said. Very unfortunate for those of us holding out hope with #1 waiver priorities.

You're assuming he doesn't throw a pitch this year. I mean even Ross Detwiller threw a pitch in his draft year.

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ESPN leaguemates... Eric Karabel just wrote the following in his chat transcript

Stephen Strasburg (DC?)

Ok let's end the drama here about me. When is ESPN going to add my name to their fantasy baseball waivers?

<H6 class=sn>Eric Karabell</H6>No drama, as far as I know. He has to pitch first, that's all. See ya in 2010.

Looks like we might not see him show up on the waivers this season contrary to what previous posters have said. Very unfortunate for those of us holding out hope with #1 waiver priorities.

Given that Tim Legler works for ESPN, I'm guessing (and it's just that) Karabell took Legler's words to heart (that Strasburg won't get signed).

Really, given that it's 2+ months until the deadline (I guess it's Aug. 17, not the 15th this year), I wouldn't put too much stock one way or the other.

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Given that Tim Legler works for ESPN, I'm guessing (and it's just that) Karabell took Legler's words to heart (that Strasburg won't get signed).

Really, given that it's 2+ months until the deadline (I guess it's Aug. 17, not the 15th this year), I wouldn't put too much stock one way or the other.

Makes sense. I'm still holding out hope with my waiver priority in hopes of seeing him show up in at the Big Show this season. If not, might have to key one of Boras' multiple Bentleys.

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I am still inclined to believe Strasburg will get signed this year. It is extremely unlikely that his value would increase if he declines to sign a pro deal this year and he faces the ever-present risk of an injury that could seriously deflate that value. Washington needs his name recognition to jump start the franchise's future with fan, and more importantly, sponsorship interest so they will give him a very lucrative offer - probably not $50 million, but easily enough to make it worth it.

Just an FYI ... the Nats other 1st rounder, Drew Storen, was a great add. I don't often look that closely at pitchers coming in as relievers but he has some very dynamic stuff and the focus/mindset which could allow him to step right in and be a factor in their bullpen. He's already signed and may show up in Washington soon ... keep an eye on him.

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In Jayson Stark's Rumblings and Bumblings, he drops the following tidbit, which is the price that an anonymous team "official" would offer up right now for Stephen Strasburg...if it was allowable. Which team is this guy from?

"This official proposed a package of a highly touted young pitcher off his big league roster who is still having his ups and downs, a second ballyhooed young pitcher (currently hurt) who has had a brief and messy big league fling, and either a prospect in Double-A or his team's own No. 1 pick."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stor...rumblings090611

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In Jayson Stark's Rumblings and Bumblings, he drops the following tidbit, which is the price that an anonymous team "official" would offer up right now for Stephen Strasburg...if it was allowable. Which team is this guy from?

"This official proposed a package of a highly touted young pitcher off his big league roster who is still having his ups and downs, a second ballyhooed young pitcher (currently hurt) who has had a brief and messy big league fling, and either a prospect in Double-A or his team's own No. 1 pick."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stor...rumblings090611

hughes, kennedy and austin?

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hughes, kennedy and austin?

That's gotta be it...I was thinking Cincinnati but I guess Bailey's not on the DL.

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when will this kid be in Yahoo

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