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SuperJoint

Denard Span 2011 Season Outlook

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Span was surprisingly useful his 1st couple of seasons with a +.800 OPS and 20 SBs per yer - but the bottom kind of fell out last yr as his AVG plummeted. The speed was still there, but he was no longer ownable in even 10-team leagues due to his struggles at the plate.

Of all people I expected the new park to actually help - not hurt him. It's obviously too early to blame it on the park - it could be more of a regression to his true abilities or whatever. This is something I'd like to the stat-heads around here chew on B) .

He's coming quite cheaply in 12-team mocks this year (18th-20th rounds). Will he revert back to his '08-'09 form and be a high-quality #3OF option again?

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Span was surprisingly useful his 1st couple of seasons with a +.800 OPS and 20 SBs per yer - but the bottom kind of fell out last yr as his AVG plummeted. The speed was still there, but he was no longer ownable in even 10-team leagues due to his struggles at the plate.

Of all people I expected the new park to actually help - not hurt him. It's obviously too early to blame it on the park - it could be more of a regression to his true abilities or whatever. This is something I'd like to the stat-heads around here chew on B) .

He's coming quite cheaply in 12-team mocks this year (18th-20th rounds). Will he revert back to his '08-'09 form and be a high-quality #3OF option again?

I had him on my team in 09 and fell in love with him...took him last year in the 13th as my #3 OF and he killed me...I'm pretty down on him, but I'd be willing to throw a 19th rd pick and see if he can bounce back.

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Why is this guy so available? He can get on base, period. I'm seeing Bench Coach posts about how he was sitting available for a while, and just today I've seen him dropped in two unrelated leagues. It's like they were reading something I'm not.. - is it simply the lineup spot? That isn't permanent, you know, and he can still get on base and steal 20 this year without much problem IMO. I could see him going for .290/.360/.390 as well at a nearly-free value. If he's not already, he'll probably be the hot pickup or trade-bait very soon.

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Why is this guy so available? He can get on base, period. I'm seeing Bench Coach posts about how he was sitting available for a while, and just today I've seen him dropped in two unrelated leagues. It's like they were reading something I'm not.. - is it simply the lineup spot? That isn't permanent, you know, and he can still get on base and steal 20 this year without much problem IMO. I could see him going for .290/.360/.390 as well at a nearly-free value. If he's not already, he'll probably be the hot pickup or trade-bait very soon.

Foru reasons why Span is downgraded in terms of perception as I see it:

1. His power ceiling is limited - not just in his skill set, but compounded by playing in MIN - that is a lefty-sucking black hole of power (I know they brought in the fences some for 2011 - but I think that impacts the sluggers like Morneau & Mauer more, as Span isn't exactly a warning-track power guy most times - the point is, even when he really connects, the home park is still going to power-draining).

2. He's lacked elite, FBB-elite SB totals. When you combine that with #1, it doesn't cause a lot of fanfare. 20/20 guys are gold - when you don't hit double-digit HR's and you only steal 15-25 SB's, it doesn't give owners that impact factor they are looking for (especially in the OF position, although it's thinner now than pre-2010).

3. Finally, for some reason, many owners are unaware that Span is still in his physical prime. Most see his skill set and equate him to a lighter version of Bobby Abreu, not realizing he's still only 27 years old - so at the very worst, his skills shouldn't degrade, and there's even hope for a slight surge.

4. Finally, his .avg was supposed to give him 3-cat goodness, and not be a killer in the other 2 (RBI/HR) - but when his .avg sagged to the .260's, it really hurt his value. He was supposed to be a guy who propped up your .avg while giving a little speed and a lot of runs - that still has great value. An .avg killer who helps in 2 cats is not going to be thought of fondly.

So, that's why he gets pretty much no love heading into 2011.

The thing is, as a leadoff hitter, he still owns a terrific eye, and he's owned contact skills for several years. AND, his speed did increase last year - which tells me it's not a health issue (at least not in his legs). He did have a small drop in his BB rate, but in reality, it's hard to see it as a harbinger of decline, as he had no clear decline in skills - contact rates, swing-rates, GB/FB/LD rates - all stable.

I think he's a decent OF4-5 for sure, with a .290/8/100/50-60/25+ season that is reasonable as a best-case scenario with 550+ PA's (he'll get more if he plays 150+ games - but that's never a lock, so 550 PA's is better to project - and I'm only going 8 HR's if the reports of a smaller field are indeed correct). In 5-OF leagues, he's hugely underrated for sure. In 3-OF leagues, he's a great 4th OF, or a guy meant to beef up certain cats to balance a team out. His limited ceiling will no doubt make him an endgame / WW guy in most leagues, but as a redraft 3-cat guy for teams who need help in those areas, or deeper/5-OF mixed leagues, he's certainly someone who should help your squad.

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^Thank you for the detailed look. I suppose that's a bellwether post for the stock value of Span, as it were. I just don't have such a bad projection in terms of ceiling; I think a solid OBP and a little luck, combined with solid chances in competition vs. his teammates will lock him in at leadoff and will play very well for 3, 4 or 5 OF leagues, almost any flavor, at this "garbage in, garbage out" value i'm seeing lately. And these are in tough leagues, too.

I agree on the underrated at that back-end spot, and that is where the majority of the drop/add action is happening as the DL spots start shaking out right about now. I thank the board and forum for being what it is, so you can ask about the 'perception issues' for FBB and see what may be happening to a very promising talent in real-time. I have Span a couple of places, I'm staying pat, and I think he'll surprise more than a couple of the jokers that are easily dropping him now (and no, nobody's predicting this is your breakout beast either).

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u should pretty much know what to expect with him. he's surely not a sexy pick, but is fairly dependable on a week to week basis. solid across the board and when all is said and done, i think he'll put up similiar fantasy points to rajai davis. he makes for a nice third OF or DH.

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Anyone know why he's not running? He has a solid OBP this year, and is 2 for 2 in steals, so it's not like he's getting thrown out...is it the coaching or is he just gunshy? Would really like to get some opinions from people who have seen some Twins games.

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Anyone know why he's not running? He has a solid OBP this year, and is 2 for 2 in steals, so it's not like he's getting thrown out...is it the coaching or is he just gunshy? Would really like to get some opinions from people who have seen some Twins games.

It's because they are always playing from behind.

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Let's face it, Span stinks for fantasy. He is a .280-.290 hitter who doesn't score enough runs or steal enough bases to justify the HR/RBI drain.

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Let's face it, Span stinks for fantasy. He is a .280-.290 hitter who doesn't score enough runs or steal enough bases to justify the HR/RBI drain.

The question is WHY. He still has the speed. why is he not being sent? he's worthless if he doesn't run.

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He gets picked off a lot, I wonder if this makes him hesitant or maybe he's just kept on a short leash.

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I think he just has the slowest reaction times I've ever seen because like Morat says the guy gets picked off a TON. I'm pretty sure at this point Gardenhire tells him just to take shorter leads if he can't react any faster.

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Yeah, he's a good real life player but if he's too scared to run then he's useless. An 8 HR, 15 SB outfielder is not rosterable.

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I just acquired this guy a few days ago, before he landed on the 7 Day concussion DL.

Which sucks...

He's not GREAT, but he probably will finish the season with

165-175 Hits, 5 HR, 50 RBIs, 15-20 SB, 85-90 RUNS

Not bad for a deep league.

Anyone with a gut feeling on his status?

I mean, is this Brian Roberts?

Where he's going to be out 6+ Weeks?

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I guess nobody really cares about the Denard Spans of the world, but in an 18 team league, I could really use him back as an option.

CF Denard Span ran sprints, hit in the cage and lifted weights Tuesday but said he is still having flare-ups of his concussion symptoms. "When I'm outside and try to run, I'll get a foggy or funny feeling, but I can say the feeling is going away a little bit faster," he said. "My recovery is faster."

(Yahoo! Sports)

Brian Roberts is still out. I hope Span comes back after the ASB.

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No doubt Gumbo. Span was a great asset in my dynasty league till the injury. I hope he can pick up where he left off.

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I care still have him and hoping for a return after the break.

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I picked up Revere and he is doing just fine in his place - plus unlike Span, Revere actually steals bases. He is doing everything I thought I was getting when I drafted Span. B)

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thoughts on span after he returns? will he get regular abs or share some with revere?

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thoughts on span after he returns? will he get regular abs or share some with revere?

Rumors are that he is being talked in a deal to Washington.

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Rumors are that he is being talked in a deal to Washington.

how would that effect his value...both seem like fairly inept offenses playing in not great stadiums....maybe slight decrease going to nl but assuming he would get regular playing time there?

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I took him off my DL.

People are saying he might play tomorrow, Saturday?

Now I'm seeing Minn papers saying he won't be back until Tuesday/Weds

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Glad Span is back...

.032 (1 for 31)

Glad a traded away a few OFers a few weeks ago thinking Span would be enough.

B)

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