bogfella

Pitcher Value Touts

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Maybe some here remember "The Thread" from a couple of years ago? I started a discussion on pitching I thought might last a weekend and it was active for over 2 years lol. Well, if there is interest, I thought might try a variation on that idea.

Here is the format ... Every couple of days I will throw out a few names I think might offer varying values on draft day. If the name is preceded by a + that means I think that pitcher could outperform his ADP or average draft cost. An = means he will probably perform at or near his draft value, and the dreaded - means I think he will probably be overpriced on draft day and should probably be avoided unless you can get him for a discount price.

Sorry, but I can't really go into the deep, deep analysis like I did in "The Thread" (unfortunately that is reserved for another time and place), but I would like to see comments from other RW fantasy baseball junkies (admit it, you are lol) on their perceptions of the guys who show up in this thread. Agree with me? Disagree? Why? And, please feel free to contribute your own names with + = or -!!!

I'll start it off with a couple of names and we'll see where it goes ...

+ Ian Snell - love the organization change, he's a mess but the upside is still there and STL would be a good place to find it

+ Yunesky Maya - probably overlooked in most leagues but I think he *might* be a pretty big surprise in 2011

- Kevin Gregg - he will open as the closer ($ talks) but I think Uehara is still the better choice, track this situation

- Josh Beckett - the wheels may be coming off and some might bid on him expecting a return to form, I have my doubts

What say you? B)

Edited by bogfella

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I was always a big fan of "The Thread", so thank you again for that.

I agree with Beckett, I'd take him late but he obviously won't be there. He's too sketchy.

What about Maya do you like? What would be a surprise season though?

Here are some guys that I think will provide solid return on investment (so...all +'s)

Haren

Peavy

Zimmermann

Hammel

Haren should be a no-doubt fantasy #2, with a return to ace status possible...but he's getting drafted like a #3 or 4.

Peavy will be overlooked. Looked like CRAP with the Sox, finally turns it around, and gets hurt (I traded for him an got 1/3 IP out of him...sweet) I'd take a flier, and you can stash him on the DL.

Zimmermann...I like post TJ guys that already threw heat. I blame Josh Johnson for my love fest.

Hammel...solid back of the rotation guy. If he pitches to his xFIP (3.80 or so), I think he provides great value.

Obviously, my names aren't quite as deep as bog's, but they are what they are. I'll add some -'s later.

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I was always a big fan of "The Thread", so thank you again for that.

I agree with Beckett, I'd take him late but he obviously won't be there. He's too sketchy.

What about Maya do you like? What would be a surprise season though?

Here are some guys that I think will provide solid return on investment (so...all +'s)

Haren

Peavy

Zimmermann

Hammel

Haren should be a no-doubt fantasy #2, with a return to ace status possible...but he's getting drafted like a #3 or 4.

Peavy will be overlooked. Looked like CRAP with the Sox, finally turns it around, and gets hurt (I traded for him an got 1/3 IP out of him...sweet) I'd take a flier, and you can stash him on the DL.

Zimmermann...I like post TJ guys that already threw heat. I blame Josh Johnson for my love fest.

Hammel...solid back of the rotation guy. If he pitches to his xFIP (3.80 or so), I think he provides great value.

Obviously, my names aren't quite as deep as bog's, but they are what they are. I'll add some -'s later.

Yeah, here we go! B)

Ok I liked some things I saw in Maya last year even though his numbers stunk but he did slice up the winter league this year and what I saw of him before last season with the Nats looked pretty solid. I think the Nats could have some musical starters this year and I have a hunch he might get a good look. Granted, he's a deep sleeper but you know me <chuckle>

And that leads to Zimmermann - I like the guy alot ... but ... I *think* he is going to be overpriced in many leagues. There is an awful lot of hyping going on regarding him so get him if you can but be careful not to overpay.

I think Peavy is a good choice for the right price but I am doubtful he will ever put up peripherals like he did in SD

Haren is a great early season guy to sell high on at the All Star break ... at least thats been his MO

keep it going!!!

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I respectfully disagree on Beckett this year Bog. Last season seemed to be a perfect storm of issues not only for Beckett, but for the team in general. For starters, he went into the start of the season with the contract exension talks still looming. Once the extension was signed, he absolutely stunk up the joint for a few weeks before shutting it down for a while. Beckett came back in the second half and was even more ineffective and likely still injured. Much like Cole Hamels struggles a year back, Beckett seems to be the kind of player who simply doesnt respond well to distractions, which I'd argue hung over him from the start of training camp re: the contract issue.

Heading into this spring, he's clearly fallen out of the top 25 pitching discussion. For owners such as myself who tend to go 5:2 or 6:1 hitters to pitchers ratio early, I think Beckett represents a pretty decent risk/reward pick as a low end #2/high end #3 SP.

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I respectfully disagree on Beckett this year Bog. Last season seemed to be a perfect storm of issues not only for Beckett, but for the team in general. For starters, he went into the start of the season with the contract exension talks still looming. Once the extension was signed, he absolutely stunk up the joint for a few weeks before shutting it down for a while. Beckett came back in the second half and was even more ineffective and likely still injured. Much like Cole Hamels struggles a year back, Beckett seems to be the kind of player who simply doesnt respond well to distractions, which I'd argue hung over him from the start of training camp re: the contract issue.

Heading into this spring, he's clearly fallen out of the top 25 pitching discussion. For owners such as myself who tend to go 5:2 or 6:1 hitters to pitchers ratio early, I think Beckett represents a pretty decent risk/reward pick as a low end #2/high end #3 SP.

No worries. Disagreement is what fantasy baseball is all about!!! B)

It certainly could be distractions and/or injuries but I just didn't like the loss of command. It often wasn't even just loss of command *in* the strike zone (which is fairly common when someone is distracted etc) - he was all over the place - but his pitches weren't crisp and he really looked to me like he was forcing everything. I could certainly be wrong but I'd be real worried if he was my 2 or 3.

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No worries. Disagreement is what fantasy baseball is all about!!! B)

It certainly could be distractions and/or injuries but I just didn't like the loss of command. It often wasn't even just loss of command *in* the strike zone (which is fairly common when someone is distracted etc) - he was all over the place - but his pitches weren't crisp and he really looked to me like he was forcing everything. I could certainly be wrong but I'd be real worried if he was my 2 or 3.

You are spot on about the command issues, but I cant help but wonder if that was a direct result of overcompensating or overthrowing due to the back issues. And like someone else mentioned, he clearly isnt someone you would reach for, but if he fell in the right spot (8th round on), he may actually offer quite a bit of value for the first time in a long time.

That said, he was pretty painful to watch last year. I still have flashbacks of that Toronto game where they spotted him a 5-0 lead early and he gave back like eight runs in two and a third!

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(+) guys:

Brian Matusz

Max Scherzer

J.A. Happ

Brandon Webb

Gio Gonzalez

Rick Porcello

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Jhoulys Chacin +

Gio Gonzalez +

Tommy Hanson + (I know, not exactly a sleeper)

Francisco Liriano + (Ditto)

Shaun Marcum +

Dan Hudson +

Brett Meyers +

Edinson Volquez +

Homer Bailey +

Mike Minor +

Bud Norris +

Scott Baker +

Trevor Cahill +

Jorge de la Rosa +

These are the guys I will be targeting. I like them all much later. I will likely wait a while and draft Kershaw, Hanson or Liriano as my SP1 and go from there.

Chris Carpenter -

Josh Beckett -

Javy Vazquez -

Edwin Jackson -

David Price -

And then some guys I like their value but it isn't astounding:

Brett Anderson =

Phil Hughes =

Mat Latos =

Colby Lewis =

Jonathon Sanchez =

Ricky Romero =

Not sure what you see in Maya. His peripherals aren't very great, his K-Rate is lowish and his stuff doesn't seem overpowering. He is no spring chicken and his control isn't that great. To each his own though

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The guy I really like is Billingsley. He is still very young and improved down the stretch last year after a disappointing 09 and start. He's got tools to be an ace and even the slighted improvement in his control would propel him into ace category. He pitches in a relatively weak division in a decent park with good support. He now has four full seasons under his belt and should be entering his prime.

Another guy who I think will rebound is Wandy. He also started very poorly but pitched great down the stretch and should rebound to 09 form.

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Some good names being tossed about ...

I am inclined to think Matusz might offer some very good value because people fear his having to pitch in the AL East and I agree that Price might be somewhat overvalued - great talent but I think his numbers might slip a bit with TB providing a weaker defense.

A couple of names mentioned (Hanson, Liriano and maybe Hudson) all look to be solid or better but there may be leagues where they go too high. I really like Hudson but based on his numbers late last year he's going to be hard to get into the later rounds.

Harang is an intriguing name too ... have to wonder what the SD park impact will be, especially with an even better defense playing behind him there this season. He might be worth a flyer to be sure.

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some of my own, but I'm slightly biased

Morrow

Hellickson

Volquez (for where you can get him)

Gio (same as Volquez)

maybe somewhat sleepers= Niese, Wood, Kennedy

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I think Tim Stauffer is a sneaky pick. A lot of people aren't even aware he'll be in the rotation next season.

I expect Lackey to bounce back. He was hindered by an injury last year and his 2nd half numbers point to a rebound.

There is going to be some pitcher in NYY that turns out to be a steal...it won't be AJ Burnett.

Ervin Santana falls back down to earth.

Don't forget about Jair Jurrjens.

Mariano Rivera has a 'down' year for him with an era over 3.

Johnny Cueto takes the next step.

It's hard to believe, but last season wasn't that bad of a year for closers. While most closer 'positions' are set, most of them are shaky. We will see more closer failures this season than in past years.

Houston will have a surprisingly good pitching staff.

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Great to see you back in action, bogfella. Your pitching insights are always sage and are greatly appreciated.

(-) Brandon Morrow: I know you've always loved him, bog, but I'm still fairly wary of his injury history and his walk rate. We've seen high walk guys curb their habit for entire years before only to have them crash and burn back into old habits the very next season. When analyzing and projecting for guys like Morrow, I'm reminded of Oliver Perez back in '04. Perez was studly that season, and we all thought he'd turned a corner. Then he went out in '05 and proceeded to give back all the "gains" he'd supposedly earned the previous year. The next Randy Johnson really is incredibly difficult to foresee.

(-) Jonathan Sanchez: I like the guy, but I think he outperformed his component stats by a solid margin last year with little in the way of actual legitimate skill improvement. I'd be drafting for a 4+ ERA and 1.30+ WHIP, but someone out there will snatch him up earlier because they'll believe the improved superficial stats from 2010.

(-) Jaime Garcia: Fantasy owners like to notice good 1st halves much moreso than they do good spurts in between or at the end. Garcia will probably be drafted a bit too high based on his unsustainable numbers from the first half of 2010. I think he's a good pitcher, and his groundball-inducing arsenal along with his strikeout stuff intrigue me enough to have some solid hopes for his future. But in the end, I think Garcia may be a little overrated going into 2011.

(-) Jeremy Hellickson: Does anyone know a single soul who's had a bad thing to say about this guy? For the life of me, I can't find anyone I know who wouldn't snatch Hellickson up in a draft. I think he'll probably be taken a couple rounds too early (or for a couple bucks too much) just because of how good he's been thus far coupled with how glowing the scouting reviews are. Why am I leery of him? Simple -- innings pitched. I doubt he throws over 160 innings this year, and that's a huge deal as far as fantasy is concerned. If you're in a daily transaction league and have the roster space to utilize some good MR's to fill up some of those lost innings, it's possible you'll get the most bang for your buck. But be wary of the innings cap on this guy.

(-) Jered Weaver: General regression theory leads me to believe he won't be quite as good as last year (an uptick in walks coupled with a downtick in strikeouts seem likely). And many people simply bid on the previous year's stats. So I think he'll be a bit overvalued going into 2011, although I still believe he'll be a good pitcher. In other words, I believe it's possible that 2010 was Weaver's career year.

(=) Brett Anderson: I agree with a previous poster who said he has good skills, but the injury concerns are both real and have a chance to really mar a season of owning this guy. I think he'll go low enough to maybe garner the owner with some profit if he stays healthy, but that's the kind of dice roll I'm only taking if I need to make up ground at that point in the draft.

(+) James Shields: Shields is my slight favorite of the guys who throw lots of strikes and therefore have an inflated HR/9 (others in this category include Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Ricky Nolasco -- all of whom have some room for regression/rebound) He'd be much more interesting if he'd have been dealt out of the AL BEast, but there's a very solid potential for rebound here. He has the ability to give good WHIP, solid K's, Wins, and an ERA near 4. Just don't start him in Fenway or you're playing with napalm.

(+) John Lackey: It was surprising to me, upon perusing the 1st half/2nd half splits from 2010, to find that John Lackey actually had a fairly Lackey-like 2nd half last year. I'd project more of the same in 2011 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP as the base line, but there's a little wiggle room for improvement if his home BABIP normalizes and his road numbers regress properly.

(+) Ted Lilly: He's almost always drafted too low. His fastball is getting close to the end of the line, but I think he's got at least one more profitable season left in him. Yay crafty veteran southpaws.

(+) Zack Greinke: The move to the NL should reap immediate benefits for his numbers, and I think we'll see a newly dedicated Greinke who is ready to put the hellhole that was the Kansas City organization behind him.

(+) Michael Pineda: Pineda seems to have an ideal defense and very good ballpark behind him, and once you mix in his good fastball and control, I think there's a chance at 130+ innings worth of an ERA near 4.00 with a WHIP in the 1.20's. He certainly needs to continue to work on his change-up, but his slider should be a good punch-out pitch against righties. [WARNING: I am a Mariners fan, so take this with a grain of salt B)]

Edited by Bodhizefa

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+Daniel Hudson - He has been my guy since about September

+Edinson Volquez - Lots of potential and nasty "stuff"...certainly someone to monitor over the spring.

+ Max Scherzer - Great K rate and looked great down the stretch. Power pitcher.

+ Johnny Cueto - He's going to have a monster season once he becomes more consistent.

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Ted Lilly, who was mentioned, is definitely worth mentioning again. He almost always goes late, but for about the past 4 years he produces quality sp3 numbers that you can get at sp5 price.

Jhoulys Chacin is an absolute plus. He had 4 months last year in which he was used solely as a starter. He didn't have above a 3.72 era in any of those months. He gets alot of groundballs, and had a sub 4.00 era at home last year. He was also clutch in September, when the team was trying to make a run.

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- Josh Beckett - the wheels may be coming off and some might bid on him expecting a return to form, I have my doubts

What say you? B)

After how terrible his last season was I couldn't see it getting any worse. It isn't like Beckett is at the age to where he would start seeing a decline. He's only 30.

If Beckett can get close to his career totals 3.96 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP (Which should net him at least 15 wins) through a whole season (even though we all know he'll miss his 2 - 3 starts annually due to blisters), I would foresee him to be a steal on draft day. But I say this not knowing exactly where this guy is getting drafted but I am left to assume it's fairly late.

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(+) James Shields: Shields is my slight favorite of the guys who throw lots of strikes and therefore have an inflated HR/9 (others in this category include Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Ricky Nolasco -- all of whom have some room for regression/rebound) He'd be much more interesting if he'd have been dealt out of the AL BEast, but there's a very solid potential for rebound here. He has the ability to give good WHIP, solid K's, Wins, and an ERA near 4. Just don't start him in Fenway or you're playing with napalm.

Like Beckett, I can only see it getting better from here on out. Think of how awesome it would have been to draft Beckett circa 2007, after he put up a 5.01 ERA his first year on Boston. Shields this year could be similar, probably not as extreme though.

(+) Michael Pineda: Pineda seems to have an ideal defense and very good ballpark behind him, and once you mix in his good fastball and control, I think there's a chance at 130+ innings worth of an ERA near 4.00 with a WHIP in the 1.20's. He certainly needs to continue to work on his change-up, but his slider should be a good punch-out pitch against righties. [WARNING: I am a Mariners fan, so take this with a grain of salt B) ]

Been huge on Pineda for 2 years now in my keeper leagues. He will be given an opportunity to make the team out of spring, but I think he gets called up with all the super 2s, after a bit of minor league seasoning. In most leagues under 16 teams he's probably a waiver wire add.

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What do you guys think of James McDonald? I remember Bogfella was high on him a couple seasons ago (avoided jail time though), saying he could be better than C Bills, and possibly Kershaw.

Does anyone see great potential in him still? Does Pittsburgh have a legitimate pitcher?

Thanks to all.

Oh, and here's what I've got

(+) Shields. FIP and xFIP said he was much better than his gaudy ERA (should be a 4.00 guy), and had a K/9 above 8.5. I like him as a big value pick.

(-) Price. I own him, of course, and the kid is good...but his FIP and whatnot said he is closer to a high 3 ERA guy. Still brings the K's, but W's will be hurt be the loss of Carl and Pena.

ps. I realize everyone has Price as a (-), so I'm lame.

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Agree that Volquez is a potential steal, depending on where he goes.

Anibal Sanchez =

Derek Holland +

James Shields = (He is what he is at this point...lots of Hits, which means you are relying on luck as to how many of those runners score)

Carlos Carrasco +

Edwin Jackson = (people will be wary, and he won't be as good as last year, but it should balance out)

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Agree that Volquez is a potential steal, depending on where he goes.

Anibal Sanchez =

Derek Holland +

James Shields = (He is what he is at this point...lots of Hits, which means you are relying on luck as to how many of those runners score)

Carlos Carrasco +

Edwin Jackson = (people will be wary, and he won't be as good as last year, but it should balance out)

Can you give some thoughts on Carrasco? Had him in a dynasty league for 3 years now and it seems like his value has gone nowhere but down.

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Ok here are a couple more ...

+ Jair Jurrjens - I expect a bounce back. He's not an ace but he could slide into your rotation 1-2 slots better than his draft position

+ Jeff Francis - a pitcher. could be all the way back from his shoulder woes. back of the rotation draft slot with some upside savvy

- Jeremy Hellickson - way too much hype. talent but next year is the year when those who drafted too early in 2011 shy away

- Ryan Franklin - just a hunch but I think this is the year he gives way to Motte or one of the other circling vultures, cover yourself

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Welcome back bog! I miss your Brandon Morrow pink backpack avatar.

Can you put a - next to Nolasco so I feel better about trading him away? Also if you could put a + by Harang, that'd help too. B)

Alternatively you could just give me your opinion on 'em and that'd be fine! :)

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What are everyone's thoughts on Justin Verlander? Here is a guy (late 20's) who imo, can only get better & has, with each passing season. I give him a big biased + B)

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