bogfella

Pitcher Value Touts

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Great to see you back in action, bogfella. Your pitching insights are always sage and are greatly appreciated.

(-) Brandon Morrow: I know you've always loved him, bog, but I'm still fairly wary of his injury history and his walk rate. We've seen high walk guys curb their habit for entire years before only to have them crash and burn back into old habits the very next season. When analyzing and projecting for guys like Morrow, I'm reminded of Oliver Perez back in '04. Perez was studly that season, and we all thought he'd turned a corner. Then he went out in '05 and proceeded to give back all the "gains" he'd supposedly earned the previous year. The next Randy Johnson really is incredibly difficult to foresee.

(-) Jonathan Sanchez: I like the guy, but I think he outperformed his component stats by a solid margin last year with little in the way of actual legitimate skill improvement. I'd be drafting for a 4+ ERA and 1.30+ WHIP, but someone out there will snatch him up earlier because they'll believe the improved superficial stats from 2010.

(-) Jaime Garcia: Fantasy owners like to notice good 1st halves much moreso than they do good spurts in between or at the end. Garcia will probably be drafted a bit too high based on his unsustainable numbers from the first half of 2010. I think he's a good pitcher, and his groundball-inducing arsenal along with his strikeout stuff intrigue me enough to have some solid hopes for his future. But in the end, I think Garcia may be a little overrated going into 2011.

(-) Jeremy Hellickson: Does anyone know a single soul who's had a bad thing to say about this guy? For the life of me, I can't find anyone I know who wouldn't snatch Hellickson up in a draft. I think he'll probably be taken a couple rounds too early (or for a couple bucks too much) just because of how good he's been thus far coupled with how glowing the scouting reviews are. Why am I leery of him? Simple -- innings pitched. I doubt he throws over 160 innings this year, and that's a huge deal as far as fantasy is concerned. If you're in a daily transaction league and have the roster space to utilize some good MR's to fill up some of those lost innings, it's possible you'll get the most bang for your buck. But be wary of the innings cap on this guy.

(-) Jered Weaver: General regression theory leads me to believe he won't be quite as good as last year (an uptick in walks coupled with a downtick in strikeouts seem likely). And many people simply bid on the previous year's stats. So I think he'll be a bit overvalued going into 2011, although I still believe he'll be a good pitcher. In other words, I believe it's possible that 2010 was Weaver's career year.

(=) Brett Anderson: I agree with a previous poster who said he has good skills, but the injury concerns are both real and have a chance to really mar a season of owning this guy. I think he'll go low enough to maybe garner the owner with some profit if he stays healthy, but that's the kind of dice roll I'm only taking if I need to make up ground at that point in the draft.

(+) James Shields: Shields is my slight favorite of the guys who throw lots of strikes and therefore have an inflated HR/9 (others in this category include Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Ricky Nolasco -- all of whom have some room for regression/rebound) He'd be much more interesting if he'd have been dealt out of the AL BEast, but there's a very solid potential for rebound here. He has the ability to give good WHIP, solid K's, Wins, and an ERA near 4. Just don't start him in Fenway or you're playing with napalm.

(+) John Lackey: It was surprising to me, upon perusing the 1st half/2nd half splits from 2010, to find that John Lackey actually had a fairly Lackey-like 2nd half last year. I'd project more of the same in 2011 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP as the base line, but there's a little wiggle room for improvement if his home BABIP normalizes and his road numbers regress properly.

(+) Ted Lilly: He's almost always drafted too low. His fastball is getting close to the end of the line, but I think he's got at least one more profitable season left in him. Yay crafty veteran southpaws.

(+) Zack Greinke: The move to the NL should reap immediate benefits for his numbers, and I think we'll see a newly dedicated Greinke who is ready to put the hellhole that was the Kansas City organization behind him.

(+) Michael Pineda: Pineda seems to have an ideal defense and very good ballpark behind him, and once you mix in his good fastball and control, I think there's a chance at 130+ innings worth of an ERA near 4.00 with a WHIP in the 1.20's. He certainly needs to continue to work on his change-up, but his slider should be a good punch-out pitch against righties. [WARNING: I am a Mariners fan, so take this with a grain of salt B) ]

Good stuff Bog, thanks.

Hey BOD, will you be posting your tiers this year? They are always a vital tool for my drafts :)

Edited by Adama

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+'s ~

Javier Vazquez: Back in the NL, back in my good graces.

Bud Norris: High K rate, good FIP, third year.

Jon Niese: Above average K rate, great home park, third year.

James McDonald: Good K rate, good FIP, he appears to have finally "got it."

-'s ~

King Felix: Perfect season and he still only won 13gms. They say you don't chase wins, but I'd rather not start with a handicap.

Mat Latos: 2nd straight year with bigger than standard IP increase.

Jonathan Sanchez: His peripherals all stayed the same, yet his ERA dropped, seems a little lucky to me.

Clay Buchholz: Doesn't K enough guys or miss enough bats to be taken so high.

Trevor Cahill: High FIP + Low BABIP against = 18 lucky wins.

Daniel Hudson: His FIP was high, his BABIP against was low, and now the league has had a look at him. He's in for a classic sophomore slump and his ADP is just not worth it.

Madison Bumgarner: He threw more innings than he was scheduled to last year, could effect him this year.

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I don't believe he's been mentioned, but what are everyone's thoughts on Colby Lewis? Put together a solid year last season, in terms of overall #s with 196 K's in 201 IP, 3.71 ERA / 1.18 WHIP, a 12-13 record, and his K/9 was a very good 8.78. Off the top, I am unsure what his FIP and BABIP were, but at first glance, only finishing with 12 wins seems somewhat unlucky. He doesn't have much of a track record MLB wise, is 31 years old, and Texas pitchers are always a gamble having to pitch half there games in Arlington. I like to target guys with good K rates, which he had last season, so what does everyone think of Lewis for 2011? Realistically viewed as solid No.3 SP?

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I don't believe he's been mentioned, but what are everyone's thoughts on Colby Lewis? Put together a solid year last season, in terms of overall #s with 196 K's in 201 IP, 3.71 ERA / 1.18 WHIP, a 12-13 record, and his K/9 was a very good 8.78. Off the top, I am unsure what his FIP and BABIP were, but at first glance, only finishing with 12 wins seems somewhat unlucky. He doesn't have much of a track record MLB wise, is 31 years old, and Texas pitchers are always a gamble having to pitch half there games in Arlington. I like to target guys with good K rates, which he had last season, so what does everyone think of Lewis for 2011? Realistically viewed as solid No.3 SP?

I took him in all my leagues last year after he destroyed Japan for 2 years. His walk rate and K-rate were both terrific overseas, and that continued in the MLB. It's actually 3 straight years of great pitching. His great '10 season will be looked at by many as a fluke, and others don't like the Tex. ballpark for SP's, so I feel he'll be really solid again, and be undervalued by most.

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+'s

Kershaw

Billingsley

Kuroda

Lilly

Garland

Im for +'s on the latter three and possibly even Bills, Id say = to Kershaw. The Dodgers had a miserable time scoring in the second half of last year, and I dont see what reason why that would improve. I'd expect low win totals on these guys.

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+'s

Kershaw

Billingsley

Kuroda

Lilly

Garland

+'s

Buerhle

Danks

Floyd

E Jax

Sale

Peavy

-'s

Garza

Zambrano

Dempster

Wells

Silva

B)

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+'s

Buerhle

Danks

Floyd

E Jax

Sale

Peavy

-'s

Garza

Zambrano

Dempster

Wells

Silva

B)

LOL...Well played, although I will give a + to Marmol for the Ks...

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Im for +'s on the latter three and possibly even Bills, Id say = to Kershaw. The Dodgers had a miserable time scoring in the second half of last year, and I dont see what reason why that would improve. I'd expect low win totals on these guys.

Obviously i was just having a little fun fan bias with my original post.

But Waiverwiz is correct.

Kershaw is a stud and will be draft high. Will probably end up with similar value, although i'm hoping for a cy young type year.

the rest easily have a chance to due much better than their ADP.

The win totals will sucks, but other stats should make up for it. All of them will know they need a near shut out for a possible win. Dodgers offense is gonna suck B)

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Hey bogfella, any thoughts on what kind of season Max Scherzer could have this year? And, weren't you once a big fan of Brandon Morrow? How do you feel he'll do this year?...both potential values later on...

...I think it was some young pitcher on the Jays...think the guy hurt his arm badly, may or may not have been Morrow.

Edited by PhilaFanBoy

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Here are some guys who are going 20th round or later (12 team) on average per MDP that appear to be a bargain:

Nolasco

Kennedy

Richard

Pelfrey

Cueto

Myers

Volquez

Chacin

Peavy

Cecil

Davis

D.Hudson

Not bad to round out your rotation.

Edited by yoda

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Hey bogfella, any thoughts on what kind of season Max Scherzer could have this year? And, weren't you once a big fan of Brandon Morrow? How do you feel he'll do this year?...both potential values later on...

...I think it was some young pitcher on the Jays...think the guy hurt his arm badly, may or may not have been Morrow.

Probably thinking of Dustin McGowan, former 1st Rd pick...?

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Probably thinking of Dustin McGowan, former 1st Rd pick...?

I think he is referring to Marcum, who is now with the Brewers. I love love love Marcum this year. I think he does very well as a #3 SP in the NL. Big + for me (if he hasn't been mentioned)

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+ Travis Wood - if he earns a rotation spot out of spring training, watch out. He flashed Tom Glavine type command/stuff last year. He was ice in the post season (albeit in 3 relief IPs), and took Halladay to the wire in a CG.

+ Marcum/Garza (switch to NL central should do wonders).

+ Hamels/Gallardo - A couple bigger names, but bumped down in the rotation due to Lee and Greinke signings. Hamels vs #4 NL starters??!!

+ Stauffer/Harang - In deeper leagues, or NL only leagues, these 2 are worth late LATE flyers in comfy Petco.

+ Maya - I'll also be taking a late flyer on Maya.

+ Bartolo Colon? Deep, deep, deep sleeper. I'm going to monitor him in ST, if he's looking like he's going to win the 5th starter position in NY, he's a definite late flyer.

+ Justin Duchsherer - Bargain basement. Looking to see where he lands.

+ Craig Kimbrel/Johnny Venters. I'll be drafting both late if possible. Also like Rauch or Francisco in Toronto, and Joe Nathan in MN.

+ Brandon Beachy (ATL) - I like him to get a shot. Late sleeper/keeper prospect

Still looking for this year's Mat Latos-esque out of nowhere breakout... Any thoughts?

- I love Greinke, but I'm not overpaying for him. His ADP will be through the roof.

- Hellickson will be overpriced. In a keeper league I'd take a flyer, but not in a one year league with his inning cap. Of course, he could pitch like Latos did last year.

- The mets! I'm not touching any Mets SP. Possibly Meija in a keeper/deeper league. R.A. Dickey, Pelfrey, Santana post injury? no thanks.

- Brandon Webb. If someone wants to reach on his potential, be my guest. I don't trust him one iota. Maybe if my rotation was endlessly deep and everyone was scared of him.

- I know this is mostly an SP thread, but Jonathan Papelbon is a guy I would not want to own. Rather take Bard late.

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Hey bogfella, any thoughts on what kind of season Max Scherzer could have this year? And, weren't you once a big fan of Brandon Morrow? How do you feel he'll do this year?...both potential values later on...

...I think it was some young pitcher on the Jays...think the guy hurt his arm badly, may or may not have been Morrow.

I am still VERY bullish on Morrow. He is slightly better command (which has been improving) from being a frontline starter who could lead the AL in K's. In fact, this may be the last year you can get him at a discount since there are still many who are skeptical about his walk rate and his durability. Yes, he pitches in the AL East and he's no guarantee (who is?) but I would not pass up a guy with #1 or #2 potential this year who will often go in the #4 or #5 rotation spot on many fantasy teams.

I am a bit less enthused about Scherzer. That's not to say I am negative on him but I do think he is likely to be an = draft guy who generally goes about where he should - and in some cases there will be people willing to over pay. I would look at him as a #3 or even better a #4 in my rotation so he's probably not going to be available much later than that.

And as someone mentioned, the pitcher you are talking about is probably Dustin McGowan. He has apparently not responded well following surgery so his career might even be in jeopardy. I loved the guy before the injury but its been so long now he would have to be considered a huge flyer unless he shows something in spring training etc. We need some good news on him before he goes back on the watch list.

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Maybe some here remember "The Thread" from a couple of years ago? I started a discussion on pitching I thought might last a weekend and it was active for over 2 years lol. Well, if there is interest, I thought might try a variation on that idea.

Here is the format ... Every couple of days I will throw out a few names I think might offer varying values on draft day. If the name is preceded by a + that means I think that pitcher could outperform his ADP or average draft cost. An = means he will probably perform at or near his draft value, and the dreaded - means I think he will probably be overpriced on draft day and should probably be avoided unless you can get him for a discount price.

Sorry, but I can't really go into the deep, deep analysis like I did in "The Thread" (unfortunately that is reserved for another time and place), but I would like to see comments from other RW fantasy baseball junkies (admit it, you are lol) on their perceptions of the guys who show up in this thread. Agree with me? Disagree? Why? And, please feel free to contribute your own names with + = or -!!!

I'll start it off with a couple of names and we'll see where it goes ...

+ Ian Snell - love the organization change, he's a mess but the upside is still there and STL would be a good place to find it

+ Yunesky Maya - probably overlooked in most leagues but I think he *might* be a pretty big surprise in 2011

- Kevin Gregg - he will open as the closer ($ talks) but I think Uehara is still the better choice, track this situation

- Josh Beckett - the wheels may be coming off and some might bid on him expecting a return to form, I have my doubts

What say you? B)

Mr. Bog...I've been ready a lot of fantasy sites touting Maya a potential sleeper. I was quick to question you, but you must be on to something.

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Mr. Bog...I've been ready a lot of fantasy sites touting Maya a potential sleeper. I was quick to question you, but you must be on to something.

There were a lot of reasons his 2010 was anything but encouraging but this guy has middle of the rotation stuff when he's in synch. The Nats have a glut of starting pitching options but many of those currently being slotted in by analysts are bad options - i.e. Stammen, Marquis, Wang, Lannan, and even Hernandez don't do much for me. The only guy I see who should be locked in is Zimmermann and that spells lots of opportunity for someone like Maya who has far more upside than those other guys. If Strasburg were healthy, their rotation should be 1. Strasburg, 2 Zimmermann, 3. Maya and pick from the rest for 4 and 5 (and I would list Detwiler as the 4 if I was really pushed). That's why I am taking a close look at Maya.

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Time for a couple more +'s and -'s ... reliever edition B)

+ Frank Francisco - now he only needs to beat out Dotel for the closing gig in Toronto

+ Daniel Bard - think he will close in Boston once the BoSox find someone willing to eat Papelbon. The clock is ticking.

- Francisco Rodriquez - problems on and off the field ... watch for Parnell to step up

- Francisco Cordero - He's shaky and the Reds do have a potentially much better option ... monitor him

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I'm starting to like Clayton Richard; good lefty with a decent K potential, entering his 3rd full season, pitching for what appears to be a solid defensive team in a pitcher's park. Some improvement in control will really boost his numbers IMO.

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I'm starting to like Clayton Richard; good lefty with a decent K potential, entering his 3rd full season, pitching for what appears to be a solid defensive team in a pitcher's park. Some improvement in control will really boost his numbers IMO.

Couldn't agree more, Yoda. He could prove to be a very nice back of the rotation guy.

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Thanks Bogfella for responding about Scherzer and Morrow. And yes, it was Dustin McGowan. I got confused haha.

I'm nowhere near a pitching expert but I guess I'll give my own +'s and -'s

+ Clay Buchholz - It seems as though his season last year has been completely ignored due to his lack of K's. 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA and yet I see him ranked around John Danks, Brett Anderson, CJ Wilson, Josh Beckett, Phil Hughes, Brett Myers, Hiroki Kuroda rather than the top tier pitchers. What gives? I know he only had 120 Ks but I'm sure he can improve on that. Plus, he's on the Red Sox and he has the potential to win 20-22 games if plays somewhat like he did last year.

+ Gavin Floyd - Ranked near Ian Kennedy, Edwin Jackson, and James McDonald, Floyd had two or three fantastic months last season yet, like Buchholz, he's fairly lower than he should be considering his hot streak last year. I know there's plenty of reason to believe he just can't be consistent, but you never know, right?

+ Jeremy Hellickson - He came in last year as a starter and gave up only 6 runs and had 25 Ks in 26 innings. I'm very happy his stint in the bullpen shot up his ERA.

+ Jonathan Sanchez - Just a gut feeling he'll surprise and improve upon last season (his win total, I mean, and then have a similar ERA, etc.)

- Cole Hamels - Now the 3rd or 4th pitcher and I'm not sure he'll care to perform like an ace. Speaking as a Phillies fan. One of Oswalt or Hamels will disappoint and I think it'll be Hamels.

- Homer Bailey - He performed well again in September for the second time in two years but I'm having a hard time believing in him.

Edited by PhilaFanBoy

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Time for a couple more +'s and -'s ... reliever edition B)

+ Frank Francisco - now he only needs to beat out Dotel for the closing gig in Toronto

+ Daniel Bard - think he will close in Boston once the BoSox find someone willing to eat Papelbon. The clock is ticking.

- Francisco Rodriquez - problems on and off the field ... watch for Parnell to step up

- Francisco Cordero - He's shaky and the Reds do have a potentially much better option ... monitor him

They have a couple of much better options. I think Chapman or Massett would be better.

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+ Clay Buchholz - It seems as though his season last year has been completely ignored due to his lack of K's. 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA and yet I see him ranked around John Danks, Brett Anderson, CJ Wilson, Josh Beckett, Phil Hughes, Brett Myers, Hiroki Kuroda rather than the top tier pitchers. What gives? I know he only had 120 Ks but I'm sure he can improve on that. Plus, he's on the Red Sox and he has the potential to win 20-22 games if plays somewhat like he did last year.

He is one of the guys who will definitely regress. His internal numbers don't support a 2.33 ERA, even if they improve. He doesn't belong anywhere near the top tier until he puts up the K's.

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Since we're talking about relievers, a guy i like is Mike Gonzalez (yes, i said it). After the command issues in the beginning of the season and every expert saying he'd never pitch again, Mike came back and made 26 appearances in the back end of the season, giving up only 7 runs (2.78 ERA), 10 walks (3.97 BB/9), and 28 strikeouts (11.1 K/9). The positive spin to this: The guy plays for Baltimore and, depending on his play, could eventually slide into the closer role. The negative: He pitches in the AL East, is going on 33, and has an extensive injury record. The one thing about him though is when he's pitching, it's good. Although the negatives are there, i still have yet to see bad pitching from him. Will be a guy i'm eyeing come Spring Training as him, Uehera, and Johnson will be vying for the number 2 spot.

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